Don't know.

Alta said:

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Ok assuming it is under 1% that still doesn't seem like great "mass testing." Especially if people are negative then they theoretically should keep getting tested throughout the outbreak.

Maybe they are doing better than other countries but still doesn't seem to justify that their testing is so great.

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It's not so much just blind mass testing - it's making sure that you can test each and every person that might have been infected through contact tracing as soon as possible. The absolute # of tests is inconsequential here just because they were able to stop the spread so quickly.

Compare to the Texas approach, where the bar for testing was super high (you had to prove that you had contact with someone who had already tested positive or who had traveled to a hot spot, which meant that many likely infected people just weren't tested) because tests were scarce. The inability to stop this thing quickly is why it's going to end up being much more difficult to smother with contact tracing and testing going forward.

Mordred said:

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cone said:

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horrible news for severity of symptoms and CFR though

and doesn't match with Italy data showing lots of asymptomatic carriers

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Agreed. Would mean the CFR is much closer to 1% (absent breakdown in health services) than anyone would want to admit.

Like I said, the different sources of data don't jibe with each other. We basically fumbling around in the dark with this thing right now. Take everything and every study, even from good sources, with a heavy dose of salt.

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True.

One of the problems is that we tend to think of all humans as equally susceptible hosts with similar responses. And that is not the case. Diseases spread and affect different populations differently.

That has been one of my arguments about UHC having better mortality rates, infant mortality rates, etc. You can not compare different populations like that.

And as far as a virus burning itself out, I am not totally sure. Mutations, lack of susceptible hosts, temperature, etc. But I posted and started noting a week ago that the burn out thing seemed to be happening. Sure quarantine helps but I think it is more than that.

Italy and Spain do not make sense. And I am very concerned about NYC and other large cities.

PJYoung said:

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Ok. So what did she die from? How do we know it was coronavirus? Did she have other serious health issues?

That's pretty awful and would like to know the rest of the story.

PJYoung said:

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"Her test results have still not come back.

Anderson, 40, said what happened to his former girlfriend should be a wake-up call for anyone who still believes COVID-19 isn't as deadly as experts have claimed."

PJYoung said:

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And cases like that do not make sense.

Edited when I saw that her test was not back yet.

And Maggie Haberman sucks as a journalist.

CFTXAG10 said:

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Exactly. Maybe postpone the writing of that article until you get the facts instead of trying to spread panic. Irresponsible journalism.

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Why? The article is already out there with the premise she has it. No need for the journalist to fact check later and prove if her article is based in reality. She's a journalist after all.

riverrataggie said:

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CFTXAG10 said:

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Exactly. Maybe postpone the writing of that article until you get the facts instead of trying to spread panic. Irresponsible journalism.

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Why? The article is already out there with the premise she has it. No need for the journalist to fact check later and prove if her article is based in reality. She's a journalist after all.

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You would think these idiots could check their agendas at the door when people's lives are at stake.

dermdoc said:

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riverrataggie said:

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CFTXAG10 said:

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Exactly. Maybe postpone the writing of that article until you get the facts instead of trying to spread panic. Irresponsible journalism.

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Why? The article is already out there with the premise she has it. No need for the journalist to fact check later and prove if her article is based in reality. She's a journalist after all.

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You would think these idiots could check their agendas at the door when people's lives are at stake.

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Why? Ones agenda is best promoted when lives are at stake.

Don't waste a crisis? Yeah!

aginlakeway said:

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PJYoung said:

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"Her test results have still not come back.

Anderson, 40, said what happened to his former girlfriend should be a wake-up call for anyone who still believes COVID-19 isn't as deadly as experts have claimed."

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Lol. Geez. If nothing else, maybe people will quit just taking someone's word to the bank just because they cite something they found on twitter. (I know that's not going to happen).

This has to be, in part, a world wide social experiment.

South Park is going to have a field day with this for sure.

CDC: everyone gather around for a press conference. 100+ people in a room. This stuff is dangerous. Only gatherings of 10 or less will be allowed.

Back to continuous updates on new cases and new deaths especially focusing on any outlier on that supports whipping people into a panic.

South Park continually wants to stop their show, but we keep giving them so much material they can't.

How come you don't' see recoveries posted on twitter?

FPS_Dough said:

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How come you don't' see recoveries posted on twitter?

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HIPPA

this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

It doesn't fit the narrative. Pretty simple.

FPS_Dough said:

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How come you don't' see recoveries posted on twitter?

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Y'all are so dramatic. I've seen a lot of stories about recoveries on Twitter. There is bad news and good news out there to find.

Two stories I saw on Twitter yesterday: https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-in-washington-state-patient-says-ebola-drug-saved-his-life/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-90-year-old-woman-seattle-recovering-covid-19-life-care-center-kirkland-washington-geneva-wood/

Txhuntr said:

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We have 5x the population of Italy. We should fully expect more cases. It's a matter of does our severe caseload overwhelm our hospital system. Washington state has been dealing with this for at least two months and hasn't become Italy yet. New York will be interesting though

Edited to add: I would pretty well throw out China's numbers. They are not only likely misreported, but China also took the most drastic measures that I hope the US would never take to quell this

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Nice summation

Quote:

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She had a slight fever. Crescent Care, her employer, had only a handful of tests for the new strain of coronavirus on hand; she initially passed on the chance to take one, after being told she was low-risk for the serious disease.

When her symptoms didn't shake, she did take the test on Monday. By Thursday, she felt "something in her lungs," she told longtime partner Josh Anderson. But she still felt well enough by then to join Anderson as the pair walked her dog.

On Friday, Anderson found Ott dead in her kitchen.

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This seems a little off.

Why did she not go to the ER or hospital? Was she getting medical advice from her employer ? Or at least maybe the article left it out.

Stupid story on the dead girl. What do test results have to do with going to the er if the symptoms reach a worrisome level? Does the treatment at the er depend on test results if you have severe distress and symptoms? Why didn't she go?

cone said:

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this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me. All I see are people trying to out alarm each other at this point, but to each their own.

Worrying about it doesn't help a thing a thing.

All the panic patrol has done is cause something that was not going to affect most of the population to affect 100% of the population.

Proc92 said:

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Stupid story on the dead girl. What do test results have to do with going to the er if the symptoms reach a worrisome level? Does the treatment at the er depend on test results if you have severe distress and symptoms? Why didn't she go?

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Her boyfriend said she still felt well enough to go to the park. Most doctors are telling us to not go to the hospital unless your symptoms are really bad, so as to not overwhelm the hospital. So which one is it. Go at the first signs or wait till you feel like *****

Proposition Joe said:

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Agsrback12 said:

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cone said:

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this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me.

---

Less alarming than what? 2 weeks ago where you were saying this isn't even as significant as the flu?

Just save yourself the time -- come back in a week and take whatever the death total is and post "This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me, people predicting [death total + 10,000] were just alarmists."

Just repost every week and you can always claim to be the voice of reason.

---

Love ya Joe. But posters were predicting a lot more than 10k dead.

Hind sight works both ways.

dermdoc said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Agsrback12 said:

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cone said:

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this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me.

---

Less alarming than what? 2 weeks ago where you were saying this isn't even as significant as the flu?

Just save yourself the time -- come back in a week and take whatever the death total is and post "This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me, people predicting [death total + 10,000] were just alarmists."

Just repost every week and you can always claim to be the voice of reason.

---

Love ya Joe. But posters were predicting a lot more than 10k dead.

Hind sight works both ways.

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Millions in the US (6 million being a favorite number but sometimes up to 100) to billions worldwide have been thrown out there since the early days of this thread.

Proposition Joe said:

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Agsrback12 said:

---

cone said:

---

this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me.

---

Less alarming than what? 2 weeks ago where you were saying this isn't even as significant as the flu?

Just save yourself the time -- come back in a week and take whatever the death total is and post "This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me, people predicting [death total + 10,000] were just alarmists."

Just repost every week and you can always claim to be the voice of reason.

---

And I will be happy to repost every week right or wrong. The doom sayers will disappear. They always do.

Rapier108 said:

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dermdoc said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Agsrback12 said:

---

cone said:

---

this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me.

---

Less alarming than what? 2 weeks ago where you were saying this isn't even as significant as the flu?

Just save yourself the time -- come back in a week and take whatever the death total is and post "This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me, people predicting [death total + 10,000] were just alarmists."

Just repost every week and you can always claim to be the voice of reason.

---

Love ya Joe. But posters were predicting a lot more than 10k dead.

Hind sight works both ways.

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Millions in the US (6 million being a favorite number but sometimes up to 100) to billions worldwide have been thrown out there since the early days of this thread.

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I was told 13 billion dead. 13 billion!

dermdoc said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Agsrback12 said:

---

cone said:

---

this thing is getting more alarming because a) Italy doesn't match up with expectations out of China and b) USA early results don't match and seem even worse than Italy

and the WHO says one thing but Italy experience says another

no one knows what the **** is going on

and you wonder why things are panicked

---

This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me.

---

Less alarming than what? 2 weeks ago where you were saying this isn't even as significant as the flu?

Just save yourself the time -- come back in a week and take whatever the death total is and post "This thing has gotten a lot less alarming for me, people predicting [death total + 10,000] were just alarmists."

Just repost every week and you can always claim to be the voice of reason.

---

Love ya Joe. But posters were predicting a lot more than 10k dead.

Hind sight works both ways.

---

You will admit that the initial estimates made by epidemiologists reflected the possible worst case scenario. Initially this virus was assumed to be equivalent to the 1918 H1N1 virus that killed 650,000+/- Americans. This total number was factored up by the population ratio indicating total deaths of about 2.2 million Americans to correlate 1918 to now. A frightening number. Other estimated larger total deaths. As you know more information has come to light and that 2.2 million estimate is greatly reduced.

Whatever the endpoint, it should be quite a bit less than the estimate above and anybody claiming to know the final number today is making a guess. We all hope and pray that these low guesses become reality.