I'm with him. Suppression is a Bad Idea.

Beat40 said:

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I honestly haven't had time and I'll look for it when I'd do, but do we know hospitalization breakdown by age?

I see lots of numbers still using the 80% overall number needing hospitalization. Just wondering what it looks like if say you took the 65+ crowd out of it.

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20% of those with positive symptomatic infections aged 20 to 44 need hospitalization in the U.S.

Source?

What is it for over 70?

Right, and that number may be common across age groups. But the % of people who are exposed that go on to be symptomatic may be 10% for 20 year olds and 80% for 40 year olds.

k2aggie07 said:

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I'm with him. Suppression is a Bad Idea.

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I agree with trying to get to the SK approach. The problem is that we need to (1) bring the number of clusters down so that we can effectively contact trace and (2) increase our testing capacity significantly so that we can track what we have. It should definitely be the goal. I suspect that a nationwide lockdown for a few weeks would be required to achieve that goal. Do we have the discipline here in the U.S. to make that work? Looking around here, I'm skeptical.

OldArmy71 said:

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Source?

What is it for over 70?

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Figures are from CDC.

Age Analysis

Thank you!

k2aggie07 said:

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Right, and that number may be common across age groups. But the % of people who are exposed that go on to be symptomatic may be 10% for 20 year olds and 80% for 40 year olds.

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I am thinking that the figure might be 20% to 50% for 20 year olds based on Italy study.

Which Italy study?

I thought the Vo study showed a huge reservoir of asymptomatic in the below 30s

one datapoint but still

also makes sense stateside that young people are having more trouble. I assume that cohort is actually taking it less seriously than older Americans, so the spread is higher

in Argentina they mandated people can only travel on public transport if seated. no standing and packing in like sardines.

seems like a smarter approach to that.

VaultingChemist said:

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OldArmy71 said:

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Source?

What is it for over 70?

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Figures are from CDC.

Age Analysis

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The quote from the article is:

Quote:

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The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit.

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What does "hospitalization" mean? If you we're diagnosed while in a hospital then treated and sent home for self-isolation doesn't that mean automatically that you've been 'hospitalized.' Again it seems that a vast majority of positive diagnoses in people ages 20-44 need only self-quarantine and their typical flu response, albeit lengthen by many days, to make it through.

For IrishTxAggie...

19-Mar 168
20-Mar 207<---We are here. Actual count is 218
21-Mar 255
22-Mar 315
23-Mar 389
24-Mar 480
25-Mar 592
26-Mar 731
27-Mar 901
28-Mar 1,112
29-Mar 1,372
30-Mar 1,693
31-Mar 2,089

Quote:

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"You cannot fight a fire blindfolded," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, W.H.O.'s director general. "And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don't know who is infected."

But testing has been inconsistent in what has been a patchwork response to the epidemic worldwide.

Some countries, like France, did not have a strategy that centered on testing to map the advance of the virus. Testing in Italy has been plagued by political squabbles. The United Kingdom developed tests but decided not to use them widely, as Singapore and South Korea had done. Other countries were caught off guard by shortages of testing chemicals.

As the virus reached into the United States in late January, President Trump and his administration spent weeks downplaying the potential for an outbreak. The Centers for Disease Control opted to develop its own test rather than rely on private laboratories or the World Health Organization.

The outbreak quickly outpaced Mr. Trump's predictions, and the C.D.C.'s test kits turned out to be flawed, leaving the United States far behind other parts of the world both technically and politically.

In that same period, Singapore was setting up health screenings at airports, issuing work-from-home guidelines and releasing plans to monitor travelers returning from abroad. Independent labs in Korea were rushing their tests out the door.

"They were ready, and they just churned out the kits," said Dr. Jerome Kim, of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul.

Today, the epicenter of the outbreak is Europe and experts say the wave is only starting to hit the United States. Faced with a growing number of cases and limited test kits, many countries have tightened restrictions on who gets tested. In Germany, where the first approved test was developed, only doctors can prescribe one. In France and Belgium, only severely sick patients get tested.

In Britain, as in many other countries, the virus is circulating so quickly that it is no longer possible to test people and investigate whom they may have infected, said David McCoy, a public health professor at Queen Mary University in London. Nearly 100 people have died from the virus there. Testing is still valuable in helping scientists understand the epidemiology of the disease, he said.

"The window of opportunity to contain the epidemic has now shut," Mr. McCoy said.

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tysker said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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OldArmy71 said:

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Source?

What is it for over 70?

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Figures are from CDC.

Age Analysis

---

The quote from the article is:

Quote:

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The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit.

---

What does "hospitalization" mean? If you we're diagnosed while in a hospital then treated and sent home for self-isolation doesn't that mean automatically that you've been 'hospitalized.' Again it seems that a vast majority of positive diagnoses in people ages 20-44 need only self-quarantine and their typical flu response, albeit lengthen by many days, to make it through.

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I'd also assume that right now, while the system is not overburdened, they might be keeping positives around trying to help isolation and probably do some extra testing and so forth, but I could be wrong about that.

Yes, that's possible. That's what Singapore and S Korea did in the early stages.

Other thing to consider that article says one-fifth of infected people but that should almost certainly be one-fifth of symptomatic infected people.

NSFW Language

k2aggie07 said:

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Yes, that's possible. That's what Singapore and S Korea did in the early stages.

Other thing to consider that article says one-fifth of infected people but that should almost certainly be one-fifth of symptomatic infected people.

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It seems like we've been arguing about word choice and definitions since the beginning no? We can expect sloppy wording, reporting and analysis from a bunch of people posting on TexAgs but we've seen how dangerous, both ends of the spectrum, how dangerous and misleading poor word choice or slightly inaccurate reporting can be.

Just got word that an Army Special Forces buddy has it, and his having a "very rough time."

His words.

Age 42 and in excellent physical condition.

Trump trolling index rising - things must be going well.

In the US, are doctors currently prescribing Chloroquine for COVID19 and is it working?

ac04 said:

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man, its almost like the cases in NYC are growing exponentially. that's really weird.

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Not really. I mean, if you think about the way this spreads..and how long it can stay alive, you should expect it to grow.

ac04 said:

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man, its almost like the cases in NYC are growing exponentially. that's really weird.

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NYC is a near perfect breeding ground for this thing.

Cuomo just announced that mandatory shutting down of business and mandatory quarantine

Rock1982 said:

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Just got word that an Army Special Forces buddy has it, and his having a "very rough time."

His words.

Age 42 and in excellent physical condition.

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Damn, that's rough if he is having trouble. This thing really does seem like it's luck of the draw. It's like playing Russian roulette even if you are healthy.

FbgTxAg said:

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I actually agree with the Germans on this to an extent. If the difference between one person recovering and another person dying is that one has emphysema, then they're not exactly wrong.

Certainly you can get carried away with it, but we all know that this thing is "speeding up the inevitable" for a lot of folks who were already knocking on that door.

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I think it's highly misleading. If someone wasn't about to die but then they catch coronavirus and die, that's a death from coronavirus.

But I don't know if Germany is cooking the books so much as it being a function of their healthcare system. They're less socialized than most of the Euros, but my understanding (and I should say this is just anecdotal) is that their "good" coverage kind of ends when people turn 65. This fits with the idea of "they were going to die from the other thing pretty soon anyway" that allegedly is how they're tracking coronavirus deaths.

PJYoung said:

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Stored in Puerto Rico

I'm starting to think they've been lying to us about how sick this makes everyone regardless of age

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Rock1982 said:

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Just got word that an Army Special Forces buddy has it, and his having a "very rough time."

His words.

Age 42 and in excellent physical condition.

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Damn, that's rough if he is having trouble. This thing really does seem like it's luck of the draw. It's like playing Russian roulette even if you are healthy.

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Was talking with a co-worker this morning and his buddy in Houston has it. He's in his mid 30's and very fit, but he said his lungs are killing him and he's having a hard time.