You don't believe the logarithmic trend of the graph?

BTW, I got ridiculed for pointing out this trend a month ago.

ccaggie05 said:

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Good god the grocery store is a disaster zone. I just needed some regular groceries and there is hardly any meat. I've been in line to pay for 30 minutes.

I sure as hell hope this isn't a new normal.

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It would be if we elected Bernie Sanders.

k2aggie07 said:

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Why? Other than false positives/negatives, confirmed cases put a minimum on the number of actual infections.

The positive rate of testing only tells you how much of the spread you're seeing. If you could test everyone, every day, you'd see it all other than false positives and false negatives.

If you test one person you see one person. If that person is positive, again excepting false positives, you have at least one case. And, because of the time to become symptomatic that means you had at least one case, 4-7 days ago.

Other than false positives confirmed cases can only under-report, not over-report.

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. False. Under reporting confirmed cases means the mortality and criticality can be way overstated. This **** could be far more contagious than the flu but less harmful. Unless we've taken a representative sample of the population and tested them all, I am skeptical.

Quote:

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False. Under reporting confirmed cases means the mortality and criticality can be way overstated. This **** could be far more contagious than the flu but less harmful. Unless we've taken a representative sample of the population and tested them all, I am skeptical.

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There is nothing in that graph concerning mortality or criticality, it is just the number of cases.

How each country treats the epidemic in their country will determine the mortality and criticality percentages within a certain range of values.

Quote:

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. False. Under reporting confirmed cases means the mortality and criticality can be way overstated. This **** could be far more contagious than the flu but less harmful. Unless we've taken a representative sample of the population and tested them all, I am skeptical.

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What did I say that was false? Be specific.

Case numbers tell you nothing about mortality or criticality. I didn't say they did. They only tell you who has the virus and who does not.

TurkeyBaconLeg said:

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Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Page now shows the US death total dropped from 40 to 33?

I wonder if they determined that some of the deaths was not from Coronavirus?

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There are no cases in Texas, Oregon or Florida. What's up with that?

Sort of goes against the person with "sources" that 1 million will die.

k2aggie07 said:

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Quote:

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. False. Under reporting confirmed cases means the mortality and criticality can be way overstated. This **** could be far more contagious than the flu but less harmful. Unless we've taken a representative sample of the population and tested them all, I am skeptical.

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What did I say that was false? Be specific.

Case numbers tell you nothing about mortality or criticality. I didn't say they did. They only tell you who has the virus and who does not.

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Nothing was explicitly wrong. But the implication is that counting confirmed cases can only under-report the severity of this. But when looking at mortality, it can actually over-report the severity.

Bolsonaro was negative

That's what people have been saying here for days.

"flatten the curve" is the difference between Wuhan/Lombardy and the rest of China.

k2aggie07 said:

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Yeah, pandemics are comprised of multiple epidemics. The local epidemics don't happen all at once. That's why the testing thing is hurting us, everyone's panicking and in the absence of info some places are shutting down early when they don't need to. Then when they DO need to, people will ignore it.

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People aren't shutting down early because of a lack of testing. You think more testing would stem the panic? That's completely backward IMO.

IrishTxAggie said:

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He should be told to kindly shove those kits up his backside.

They probably don't work properly anyways..

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Sort of goes against the person with "sources" that 1 million will die.

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Overload the availability of ICU beds, like Italy, and it could be higher. Implement a program like South Korea and Singapore, and it could be much lower.

Amen. I'm no doctor or statistician, but it's god damned common sense. The majority of people getting tested are probably already sick...therefore the number of them dying is higher. Irresponsible media and posters.

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Nothing was explicitly wrong. But the implication is that counting confirmed cases can only under-report the severity of this. But when looking at mortality, it can actually over-report the severity.

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The implication is that it under-reports the number of cases, not the severity.

And you absolutely have an observation bias towards more severe cases. That's true for the flu, too.

What's important is that unless you're intentionally testing asymptomatic people the observed cases lag the true case count by at least the incubation period.

At some point the mortality figure or denominator is almost irrelevant to the discussion. We have direct, empirical evidence that this absolutely is severe enough to overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure in a region.

They'll be publishing papers on this for the next few decades, but in the meantime we need to understand that once you hit ~100 observed cases in a city you are on the cusp of a problem.

Jayhawk said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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He should be told to kindly shove those kits up his backside.

They probably don't work properly anyways..

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You don't know much about Jack Ma and how heavily invested in the US he is do you?

Wow. I was wrong. No statewide school closure. My info came from an elected official that was on the TEA call with Abbott yesterday. I was told they recommended the closure yesterday but Abbott just said the administration would be working with school districts directly to help make local determinations.

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People aren't shutting down early because of a lack of testing. You think more testing would stem the panic? That's completely backward IMO.

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I absolutely do. Harris County originally said Houston should not shut down schools. And they're right, with perfect information you wouldn't want to do that until it will actually have a benefit. I know we have observed cases, but imagine if we had no community spread and they shut down. What good does that do?

And insufficient testing also doesn't let you know when it's a good idea to loosen up quarantine measures.

Unknown causes more panic.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Jayhawk said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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He should be told to kindly shove those kits up his backside.

They probably don't work properly anyways..

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You don't know much about Jack Ma and how heavily invested in the US he is do you?

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I know who he is and I'm well aware that he and many other Chinese oligarchs dump large amounts of capital into the US as a hedge against the next cultural revolution. I also know that no Chinese businessman gains that much wealth without serving at the pleasure of their communist overlords. Thus this benefixient gesture is properly interpreted as a Chinese government influence operation.

I did, it reinforces how dumb some people are.

IDT just posted this. https://www.idtdna.com/pages/landing/coronavirus-research-reagents?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=00193_1b_01&utm_term=coronavirus&utm_content=idt_homepage

tsuag10 said:

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If we advertised that we had plenty of testing kits available, wouldn't that have the unintended consequence of causing a rush on healthcare facilities? Tons of people with a cough would be showing up to be tested. Mingling with each other. Crowding the facilities. Monopolizing healthcare workers.

Thoughts?

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I spoke recently at length to a doc in a midsize TX town who said that was their fear, the run on tests from people who didn't need them and the inevitable false positives and negatives.

CDub06 said:

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Wow. I was wrong. No statewide school closure. My info came from an elected official that was on the TEA call with Abbott yesterday. I was told they recommended the closure yesterday but Abbott just said the administration would be working with school districts directly to help make local determinations.

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I'm shocked as well.

Are there any schools that are in session next week? Spring Break covers a lot of the ones that still haven't announced.

Did Abbott mention anything about cancelling events above a certain number of people?

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Test or no test, there are already millions of people who have it. A big majority will never even know they had it.

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I was trying to find research about that. From what I can tell we don't really even know how many people are asymptomatic for seasonal flu. I saw a metaanalysis that said median of the value was ~16% and another one saying infectious disease modelers use arbitrary values in the range of 20-50%.

Based on that - and I'm not an expert - but I would think an optimistic number of asymptomatic carriers would be 50% of the total number of infections, and a pessimistic number 10%.

Now you have to add to that consideration the masking effect of insufficient testing AND the bias toward testing only severe cases.

If we assume that this has similar behavior to the flu in terms of severity of the average case, only 50% of people who have symptoms will seek medical attention to begin with.

If we assume we're testing everyone who has symptoms (which you know darn well we're not here in the US because we can't) and ignore false positives and false negatives or misdiagonsis, then you take the total number of reported cases, multiply by two to get the total number of real symptomatic cases, and multiply by anywhere between 1.25 and 2 again to get the number who are totally asymptomatic.

Call it 4x max in a place like S Korea who are widely testing. So they'd have ~32,000 cases. In the whole world we *might* have a million people who have it.

Put huge error bars on everything I wrote because its all total swag.

i do think it would stem the panic, especially once you hit a % of the overall population that's been tested at least once, you maintain social distancing, AND the number of infected per day starts dwindling

panic is happening right now because we don't know anything and we have no idea if what we're doing is working

it's like living in the blitz. it's scary at first, but eventually you come to trust the overall process

right now, we got nothing. flying blind in a dive.

CDub06 said:

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Wow. I was wrong. No statewide school closure. My info came from an elected official that was on the TEA call with Abbott yesterday. I was told they recommended the closure yesterday but Abbott just said the administration would be working with school districts directly to help make local determinations.

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These decisions should be made locally. The resources and infection rates are all local.

Cuomo actually speaking sense.