Fingle Ding with fake news and if there ever was MNC it is for beds

IrishTxAggie said:

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I'd bet they picked it up off Twitter or Reddit.

Bernie Bro types have been calling it that for a while because they are hoping it kills enough older people to allow the socialist takeover to commence.

FYI hospitals license # beds in every state. Take that data point and you are 1/2 way there for planned total capacity for disaster.

Beds are fake news

As there's no treatment the argument is the same for the minor cases as acute. It doesn't matter if they have covid19 proof test. If they have interstitial pneumonia and and low o2 docs know what to do. This is just excuse / covering for the fact that when it mattered most the CDC pissed down their legs.

ONE-TWO-- said:

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The idea that our ICUs are not gonna be overrun with sick patients is laughably naive. I can guarantee you that most ICUs on a daily basis are running at max or near max capacity from a day to day basis. This is without incidents like coronavirus. There are obviously highs and lows with capacity, but at this time of year, ICUs are staying full.

All it will take is another couple of weeks of this outbreak and there will be plenty of evidence to show that our hospital systems are not prepared for pandemics.

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I fully expect our system to be stressed, but unless Obamacare wiped out about 20% of our inventory, the most recent figures I can find from 2005-2007 are below:

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Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% ( 16.5) for 514 beds versus 60.9% ( 22.1) for 20+ beds, P = 0.001), and in academic hospitals (78.7% ( 15.9) versus 65.3% ( 21.3) for community not-for profit hospitals, P < 0.001). More than half (53.6%) of ICUs had 4+ beds available more than half the time. The mean percentage of ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation in any given hour was 39.5% ( 15.2), and a mean of 29.0% ( 15.9) of ICU beds were filled with a patient on a ventilator.

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CDub06 said:

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Here's one. Not exactly what I was looking for, but details the excruciating process: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

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The most astonishing part of this particular story is the initial reaction from the CDC/FDA - a rational reaponse from these agencies might include some level of appreciation and support (and perhaps some level of humility) - instead a cease and desist order was given. It's mind blowing to learn that a rogue professor at UW actually detected the community spread under way in Washington.

You believe that guy? My son goes to Penn State and this guy ran for a congressional seat in the Democratic Party claiming that the US needs socialized health care. I'm sure an honest person would have said we can see the problems socialized medicine causes in a place like Italy, but no he said US is near the bottom in hospital beds.

There's a reason important people and the wealthy from all over the world come to America for healthcare, and it sure ain't because it sucks. Also, when you factor in the amount of home healthcare, nursing homes and military hospitals/institutions we have here you have to realize he's being disingenuous in saying that America can be just like Italy. Never let a crisis go to waste.

CDub06 said:

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erudite said:

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Please elaborate? That is interesting.

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There have been several stories on the slow play by the CDC and the fact that early tests didn't work. UW was able to rollout their tests without certification by the CDC because they're a research institution. I'll see if I can pull up one of those articles.

I do agree that at this point testing isn't going to reverse this thing. It might help stop the spread and aid quarantine. We needed this capability nationwide at the onset

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That is very interesting. Whoever came up with the idea is being proactive rather than reactive..

Dallas County just posted state of emergency from tomorrow through next 7 days. Ensue panic.

coastsrs said:

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Lol I'm here for the memes.

I need to block you bet, prop joe, cone, infection chick, and scream loser jet. It read a doomsday post... stop reading, scroll up and see it's one of them, laugh, and keep scrolling

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Add shanked, a guy named Eric and the young one and you've done yourself a favor.

AnScAggie said:

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coastsrs said:

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Lol I'm here for the memes.

I need to block you bet, prop joe, cone, infection chick, and scream loser jet. It read a doomsday post... stop reading, scroll up and see it's one of them, laugh, and keep scrolling

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Add shanked, a guy named Eric and the young one and you've done yourself a favor.

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Correct. So predictable.

How these guys post constantly every day is amazing.

Until you realize these guys are all bunkered down together in their moms basement

We need to refocus on active cases not total cases. This is more of a barometer for what's going on. You can see the dip after China peaked and before Europe and the Middle East picked up. Note that it is rising again and will probably peak over China's number. Everyone wants to focus on total confirmed cases, but half of those are recovered.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Envisioning a tiny home with Bernie stickers

KorbinDallas said:

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We need to refocus on active cases not total cases. This is more of a barometer for what's going on. You can see the dip after China peaked and before Europe and the Middle East picked up. Note that it is rising again and will probably peak over China's number. Everyone wants to focus on total confirmed cases, but half of those are recovered.

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I see a butt

That article is infuriating.

YouBet said:

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Dallas County just posted state of emergency from tomorrow through next 7 days. Ensue panic.

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State of emergency limiting mass gatherings applies to churches too

Really good info and a smart, level-headed way to look at all this. Thanks for posting.

Link? How is it worded?

k2aggie07 said:

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Link? How is it worded?

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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/13/dallas-county-declares-state-of-emergency-after-confirming-5-more-cases-of-coronavirus/

"Houses of worships are included in the prohibition."

k2aggie07 said:

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Some preliminary good news

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

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we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

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Not peer reviewed, grain of salt, etc etc

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If confirmed Houston is golden

CDC =/= state of Washington. I'm not a lib. But that's a fact.

CDC is testing dozens a day.

Question for the experts...

The mention of "rainy season" has me curious - I assume rain hinders the transmission of viruses like this? I ask because it's raining like crazy here in LA and looks to continue raining for the next week or so. So does that technically make transmission less of a risk?

Humidity increases the chances that a viral-laden cough encounters water molecules in the air, carrying it to the ground instead of to the door handle/ pedestrian / bike rack / etc.

So yes, rain is a good thing.

KorbinDallas said:

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We need to refocus on active cases not total cases. This is more of a barometer for what's going on. You can see the dip after China peaked and before Europe and the Middle East picked up. Note that it is rising again and will probably peak over China's number. Everyone wants to focus on total confirmed cases, but half of those are recovered.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Thanks for posting. This doesn't fit the guys in the basement wishes but it's a very rational way to look at it and promotes healthy discussion.

More rational stuff and less Twitter musings

Makes sense. Thanks.

TAMUallen said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Link? How is it worded?

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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/13/dallas-county-declares-state-of-emergency-after-confirming-5-more-cases-of-coronavirus/

"Houses of worships are included in the prohibition."

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This irks me because I'm a member of one of the larger Dallas County churches. There was an emergency meeting today. It was decided to cancel all weekly events, broadcast on Sundays but also still have Sunday services with restrictions on physical contact. Nobody checked with us at least of this afternoon.

how is that supposed to work constitutionally?

swimmerbabe11 said:

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how is that supposed to work constitutionally?

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I'm guessing anything goes in state of emergency but at county level? Who knows... I'm sure I'll hear all about it tomorrow and the Rector had made an emphasis on faith in Jesus and not fearing (to which I quietly commented was idiotic in a pandemic situation, so I'm not displeased with the state of emergency but it irks me on the Dallas County level involuntary restriction)

It's a suggestion for public health. DPD isn't walking in to break up worship.

It's telling churches take a couple weeks off. Broadcast on the internet. Listen to the President.

Go to church at Jim Bakker's place and if you catch the virus he can cure you! (For the low, low price of only $124.99. As seen on TV)

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/814550474/missouri-sues-televangelist-jim-bakker-for-selling-fake-coronavirus-cure