That study seems to have been debunked by several sources

I don't understand why people are surprised by this.

I mean, even ignoring that some people have it and aren't showing signs -- it is silly to expect people in America not to come to work just because they are sick. We've seen (and complained about it) for decades - why are we shocked it's still happening?

I don't profess to know which way this thing is going to go, and I'm not in panic mode, but I think it's realistic to assume that most major cities will be exposed to the virus. The major cities that don't have reported cases are likely simply because the people who have it haven't gone to the doctor yet.

wbt5845 said:

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See, the problem is one has a few symptoms and thinks "hmm wonder if I'm sick". Like right now, I have a little bit of sinus drainage, which is almost certainly due to hay fever.

OR IS IT!

See, that's the point. Every time I have a little cough or sinus drainage, I can't self-quarantine for two weeks.

And that's not necessarily people being a-holes. We all waffle on how sick is too sick to go to work.

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And according to a lot of the studies, some infected aren't showing signs at all.

It's why the only real hope of stopping widespread infection is to shut EVERYTHING down for a couple of weeks.

And I get it, it's not that simple because -- economy. But if you are choosing the economy over containment then you'd better be absolutely sure you can handle what is coming -- especially when it looks like we're going to get the economy hit regardless.

Mr.Infectious said:

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cone said:

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what happened in Italy is what I thought was going to happen to Japan two weeks ago

so i wonder what the difference is between the two

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From a report about a week ago, apparently there are two different strains of the virus floating around....Mutations occur in these things.

L strain and S strain from what I remember.

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Somewhere back on this thread there was a report that the paper on the mutation got pulled. Peer review found issues with it.

wbt5845 said:

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See, the problem is one has a few symptoms and thinks "hmm wonder if I'm sick". Like right now, I have a little bit of sinus drainage, which is almost certainly due to hay fever.

OR IS IT!

See, that's the point. Every time I have a little cough or sinus drainage, I can't self-quarantine for two weeks.

And that's not necessarily people being a-holes. We all waffle on how sick is too sick to go to work.

---

Most of us are driven to "suck it up and go to school or go to work" unless you are on deaths door step. When we mature as leaders we look at folks that stay at home with the sniffles in a negative light. I think there will be many folks taking advantage of this over the next month or so.

I have been coughing and not feeling quite right for the last week or so. I am still going to be at work tomorrow morning. Maybe its a bad thing, maybe its not.

Well looks like I need to keep up with the rest of the class.....


Can we all agree that there is potential for this to mutate like other viruses do?

Drudge Report is basically yelling fire in a crowded theatre.
Should be real punishment for this. Its probably Soros backed media panic.
He loves taking out entire national economies.

The first link on Drudge right now is "New York Prison Labor Prepares to Dig Graves..."

Proposition Joe said:

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I don't profess to know which way this thing is going to go, and I'm not in panic mode, but I think it's realistic to assume that most major cities will be exposed to the virus. The major cities that don't have reported cases are likely simply because the people who have it haven't gone to the doctor yet.

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I'd take it a step farther and say that most major cities have been exposed, have had infected people go to the doctor, but have not been able to get tested.

JP_Losman said:

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Drudge Report is basically yelling fire in a crowded theatre.
Should be real punishment for this. Its probably Soros backed media panic.
He loves taking out entire national economies.

The first link on Drudge right now is "New York Prison Labor Prepares to Dig Graves..."

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Comes from The Daily Beast, not the most reputable site out there, and one that loves to spin things.

Most likely it has been part of NYC's plan for a massive epidemic response for decades.

Many people are used to employers looking negatively on employees for being sick. I've worked places where people are expected to be there even if they feel like they are dying. Fortunately, my current employer isn't that way, but you still have rogue employees not willing to use PTO when they get sick.

Rapier108 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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cone said:

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what happened in Italy is what I thought was going to happen to Japan two weeks ago

so i wonder what the difference is between the two

---

From a report about a week ago, apparently there are two different strains of the virus floating around....Mutations occur in these things.

L strain and S strain from what I remember.

---

Somewhere back on this thread there was a report that the paper on the mutation got pulled. Peer review found issues with it.

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Which will likely be proven true about half of the cited material in this thread.

Some of these studies from dubious sources explicitly state "Not Peer Reviewed".

Which is a scientific publication version of click bait.

I Have Spoken said:

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Many people are used to employers looking negatively on employees for being sick. I've worked places where people are expected to be there even if they feel like they are dying. Fortunately, my current employer isn't that way, but you still have rogue employees not willing to use PTO when they get sick.

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As upper level management we do something called calibration for all of our direct reports every year during review time. If you had more than 40 hrs sick time then you get knocked on your review. I guess we are still old school.

1.8% asymptomatic. 80% minor cases. 18.5 or so requiring some kind of hospitalization.

CDub06 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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I don't profess to know which way this thing is going to go, and I'm not in panic mode, but I think it's realistic to assume that most major cities will be exposed to the virus. The major cities that don't have reported cases are likely simply because the people who have it haven't gone to the doctor yet.

---

I'd take it a step farther and say that most major cities have been exposed, have had infected people go to the doctor, but have not been able to get tested.

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Yup... I'm not an alarmist, so I'm not yelling run to the hills every time the discussion has come up among friends... but you can definitely tell there's a large % of the population that absolutely has a "media always cries wolf, this is no big deal" when you have people say things like "it's not even in the DFW area" (before this morning's Frisco news).

If you don't believe it's not already in your major city or will soon be there, you are completely unaware. Now, will it devastate the population? Unlikely. But, it's a thing.

If you have your trusted news sources, rely on them. If you feel like you can't trust the media at all (which is close to where I'm at), then simply go by the CDC releases. That might not put you out in front of the bad stuff, but it won't leave you way behind the curve wondering why no else is moshing in the pit at the concert with you.

k2aggie07 said:

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1.8% asymptomatic. 80% minor cases. 18.5 or so requiring some kind of hospitalization.

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I'm not as concerned with %'s as I am with total #'s.

The pictures a few pages back of the medical tents in Utah give me hope that we're starting to get out in front of this.

I would like to thank The Weather Channel for branching out into other forms of alarmism and not sticking to just climate related fear mongering.




Four news stories on the front page, 3 are about Corona.

Nice job guys.

I Have Spoken said:

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Many people are used to employers looking negatively on employees for being sick. I've worked places where people are expected to be there even if they feel like they are dying. Fortunately, my current employer isn't that way, but you still have rogue employees not willing to use PTO when they get sick.

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I still worked 6 days a week (70+ hour weeks) when I had the flu a couple of years ago, which led to pneumonia. First and only sick days I've taken in my life the following week. Employees take days off all the time. But if you're in charge and the place shuts down without you, then you have to suck it up or else everyone has to stay home.

i believe that paper got recalled

Madman said:

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I would like to thank The Weather Channel for branching out into other forms of alarmism and not sticking to just climate related fear mongering.




Four news stories on the front page, 3 are about Corona.


Nice job guys.

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When are they going to name it?

I nominate the name Karen.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Well looks like I need to keep up with the rest of the class.....


Can we all agree that there is potential for this to mutate like other viruses do?

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I don't think there is any doubt that this virus, like all others can mutate. It's already mutating, as with every copy the virus makes there is a chance for a mistake. Whether it make the virus more or less transmissible/deadly, there is no way to know.

For example if the protein spike code gets altered, it could make it unable to get into cells and will die off without producing copies.

I believe this site is tracking the virus genomes from samples worldwide.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

Quote:

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It's why the only real hope of stopping widespread infection is to shut EVERYTHING down for a couple of weeks.

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that's not the only way to limit the spread

it's the only way if the outbreak gets away from you

of course

but you can't speculate on that being the source of the divergent outcomes

Mutations are how you can trace origin by genome sequencing

Italy now expanding quarantine order to entire country.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/09/italy-extends-its-quarantine-to-the-entire-country-pm-asks-residents-to-stay-at-home.html

Business Insider: Nearly 200 soldiers dead, thousands in quarantine in North Korea

https://www.businessinsider.com/almost-200-north-korean-soldiers-died-coronavirus-2020-3

cisgenderedAggie said:

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Mutations are how you can trace origin by genome sequencing

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So it's the extraneous bits of the genome that are mutated in these examples and are being traced? Nothing really affecting the viability of the virus correct? Or so far as we know?

You can have mutations in the genome without changing the proteins that are expressed.

And any mutation that results in a nonviable virus won't be passed on, so we'll never see it.

I Have Spoken said:

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Many people are used to employers looking negatively on employees for being sick. I've worked places where people are expected to be there even if they feel like they are dying.

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I had a 1st level like that. One time I was obviously sick but he said come in the next day anyway so I did, but i made sure to hang around near his cube instead of my coworkers because I didn't want them to get it. Of course that SOB caught whatever I had and he had to go out an entire week. Sorry, not sorry.

Accoridng to npr just now, trump might have been exposed to coronavirus himself by way of mark meadows and matt gaetz.

They both are self quarantined and gaetz found out while he was AF1 while meadows escorted trump to the cdc.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Well looks like I need to keep up with the rest of the class.....


Can we all agree that there is potential for this to mutate like other viruses do?

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I don't know what paper they are talking about...this article and attached papers discuss evolutionary changes within a family cluster via human to human transmission.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster

Quote:

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'Striking' coronavirus mutations found within one family cluster, Chinese scientists say

• 'More work needed' to determine impact of genetic changes on patients
• Case points to viral evolution in human-to-human transmission, researchers say

Chinese scientists say they have detected "striking" mutations in a

new coronavirus that may have occurred during transmission between family members.

While the effects of the mutations on the virus are not known, they do have the potential to alter the way the virus behaves.

Researchers studying a cluster of infections within a family in the southern province of Guangdong said the genes of the virus went through some significant changes as it spread within the family.
Viruses mutate all the time, but most changes are synonymous or "silent", having little effect on the way the virus behaves. Others, known as nonsynonymous substitutions, can alter biological traits, allowing them to adapt to different environments.

Two nonsynonymous changes took place in the viral strains isolated from the family, according to a new study by Professor Cui Jie and colleagues at the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai.

This case indicated "viral evolution may have occurred during person-to-person transmission", they wrote in the paper published in the journal National Science Review on January 29.

Cui's team also detected a total of 17 nonsynonymous mutations from cases around the country between December 30 and late January, they wrote.

But "we do not have an answer yet" on whether the new coronavirus is changing faster than Sars or other viruses, according to Shi Zhengli, a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, who was not involved in the study.
Sars, or severe acute respiratory syndrome,
mutated at the speed of 1 to 3 changes per thousand "sites" each year, according to previous studies.

Shi said that scientists still did not know the mutation speed of the new coronavirus because "most of the available [viral gene] sequences are not complete. They come in fragments." Sequencing entire genomes is time-consuming and expensive. The new coronavirus' genes also have a total length of nearly 30,000 base pairs, longer than many other viruses, including its distant cousin Sars.

But on Saturday, the Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Zhejiang CDC) said it was teaming up with tech giant Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post, to develop a new method of genome analysis using artificial intelligence to study the virus from patient samples.

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Here is the paper...not pulled from what I can tell.
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa009/5717501

cone said:

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Quote:

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It's why the only real hope of stopping widespread infection is to shut EVERYTHING down for a couple of weeks.

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that's not the only way to limit the spread

it's the only way if the outbreak gets away from you

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There's 36 states with reported cases -- and that's without any widespread testing and a large % of the population still thinking this is all bull**** or "just the flu".

Do you really think this thing will be contained?

This graphic is at least two weeks old and was based on an article by Chinese doctors about China only.

Virus travels twice as far as anticipated and lingers in air for 30mins...Article written today. Claims aerosol transmission still viable. This could be bad/explain current trends in hospitals, offices, schools, etc.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Quote:

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Quote:

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Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official 'safe distance' and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

• Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away
• The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres further than the "safe distance" advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.
The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a "safe distance" of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).

"It can be confirmed that in a closed environment with air-conditioning, the transmission distance of the new coronavirus will exceed the commonly recognised safe distance," the researchers wrote in a paper published in peer-review journal Practical Preventive Medicine last Friday.


The paper also highlighted the risk that the virus could remain afloat even after the carrier had left the bus.


The scientists warned that the coronavirus could survive more than five days in human faeces or bodily fluids.

They said the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.

"Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride]," they added.

Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as "A", boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.

The passenger already felt sick at that point but it was before China had declared the coronavirus outbreak a national crisis, so "A" did not wear a mask, nor did most of the other passengers or the driver on the 48-seat bus.

China requires closed circuit television cameras to be installed on all long-distance buses, which provided valuable footage for researchers to reconstruct the spread of the virus on the bus, whose windows were all closed.

Hu Shixiong, the lead author of the study who works for the Hunan Provincial Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention, said the security camera footage showed patient "A" did not interact with others throughout the four-hour ride.

But by the time the bus stopped at the next city, the virus had already jumped from the carrier to seven other passengers.

These included not only people sitting relatively close to "patient zero", but also a couple of victims six rows from him roughly 4.5 metres away.

They all later tested positive, including one passenger who displayed no symptoms of the disease.

After these passengers left, another group got on the bus about 30 minutes later. One passenger sitting in the front row on the other side of the aisle also became infected.

Hu said the patient, who was not wearing a mask, was likely to have inhaled aerosols, or tiny particles, breathed out by the infected passengers from the previous group.

Aerosols are light-weighted particles that are formed from tiny droplets of bodily fluids.

"The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance," said the paper.

After getting off the shuttle bus, the initial carrier got on a minibus and travelled for another hour. The virus jumped to two other passengers, one of whom was also sitting 4.5 metres away from patient "A".

By the time the study was finished in mid February, patient "A" had infected at least 13 people.

It is generally believed that the airborne transmission of Covid-19 is limited because the tiny droplets produced by patients will quickly sink to the ground.

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who?mikejones said:

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Accoridng to npr just now, trump might have been exposed to coronavirus himself by way of mark meadows and matt gaetz.

They both are self quarantined and gaetz found out while he was AF1 while meadows escorted trump to the cdc.

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I'm sure the people on Twitter will handle this news in an even and mature manner.