IDK, but we're probably heading into the mitigation stage now.

Curious here. What about NYC is different than Wuhan or N.Italy? What keeps NYC under control vs those other places?

cone said:

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for the no big dealers

how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?

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The prevention started with the Chinese travel ban(s). Something the Italians didn't have

Bullpen Chias said:

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Curious here. What about NYC is different than Wuhan or N.Italy? What keeps NYC under control vs those other places?

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We have no idea how this is playing out in NYC until we start testing people .

IrishTxAggie said:

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cone said:

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for the no big dealers

how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?

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The prevention started with the Chinese travel ban(s). Something the Italians didn't have

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One of the better things Trump did recently.

C@LAg said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Bullpen Chias said:

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Curious here. What about NYC is different than Wuhan or N.Italy? What keeps NYC under control vs those other places?

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We have no idea how this is playing out in NYC until we start testing people .

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testing does jack *****

and yet, deaths have not spiked ANYWHERE

all testing will do is confirm that mortality is much much much lower than all the doomsayers are saying, as we will have much more people ID'd with it, and still not spike in deaths.

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I thought hospitals would start filling up regardless of testing.

Bullpen Chias said:

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Curious here. What about NYC is different than Wuhan or N.Italy? What keeps NYC under control vs those other places?

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Who says New York is under control?

cone said:

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what is meant by 1% in their 40s?

the overall IFR right now is 0.7% in SoKo so a 1% 40-49 IFR would be surprising

Wuhan wasn't that high with a much higher overall IFR

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Good question so I went back and re listened. Dr Gottlieb says "case fatality rate is probably going to be about 1% And it's not just older Americans - as tragic as that is - if you look at 40 year olds case fatality rate has been .2-.4 so that means as many as 1 in 250 40-50 year olds that get the disease will die from it. This is based on data coming out of SK"
" case fatality rate in SK is currently .6%. But time to death is 3-6 weeks. Most of these cases were diagnosed in last 10 days so most in SK haven't worked through the severe stages. The Case Fatality Rate will go up". He also explains CFR vs IFR. CFR is the number to watch. So not 1% of 40 years olds but still bad at .2-.4 and it may increase. Hope that clears up my earlier version.

nm

Interesting piece in the New England Journal of Medicine on the first case in WA.

Timeline



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

IrishTxAggie said:

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cone said:

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for the no big dealers

how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?

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The prevention started with the Chinese travel ban(s). Something the Italians didn't have

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Yeah, but Customs is allowing people from places like Italy and Iran to walk right through.

Time to shut those places off as well.

C@LAg said:

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dumb. anyone not concerned is an idiot.

that said, for the other side there is no reason to panic and freak out.

This is still early days. with infections now spreading around the country, we will have the initial period of 1-3 weeks while infections manifest, and then another 1-4 weeks to assess the recoveries.

No one on either side should be spiking the football for at least 6 weeks.

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C@LAg said:

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Deaths in WA state now up to 17. 16 of 17 tied to the nursing home.

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That was my point about MedicareSS.

C@LAg said:

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dumb. anyone not concerned is an idiot.

that said, for the other side there is no reason to panic and freak out.

This is still early days. with infections now spreading around the country, we will have the initial period of 1-3 weeks while infections manifest, and then another 1-4 weeks to assess the recoveries.

No one on either side should be spiking the football for at least 6 weeks.

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Why is this dumb? It sounds pretty level headed and rational to me:

"How Lethal Is COVID-19?
The most accurate data on case fatalities is from the only natural experiment that exists, the Diamond Princess cruise. Why a cruise ship? Because this is a closed environment where we can accurately measure every person who gets sick and know the real number of people who perish based on that exposure.

The cruise ship data shows a fatality rate of 0.85%. All of the people that perished were over 70, which is much more like the seasonal flu. In addition, the ability of the virus to spread was again, not that impressive as only about 20% got the virus. So while this bug is nasty, it's NOT the middle-aged killer that the media has been making it out to be."

Well stated

cone said:

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for the no big dealers

how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?

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Let's see what Seattle and NYC look like in 2 weeks when we have more testing ability and more time to spread.

Only about a third of those infected on the cruise ship have recovered so far. It's silly making any sort of judgement on fatality rates based upon total cases at this point in time.

testing and subsequent contact tracing gets asymptomatic carriers and mild cases OFF THE STREETS

it's absolutely critical

Skillet Shot said:

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cone said:

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for the no big dealers

how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?

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Let's see what Seattle and NYC look like in 2 weeks when we have more testing ability and more time to spread.

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It will be interesting to see how this ages. Remember that two weeks ago Italy was dealing with maybe a dozen cases and had just recorded their 1st death...

Dr. Scott Gotlieb was on Face the Nation this morning, he indicated at the end of this interview that he believes the disease mortality rate is closer to 1%, and as a comparison the normal influenza disease mortality rate is between 0.05-0.1%.

The link is here-

As mentioned by Holman Jenkins in the WSJ last week- is it possible that the panic leads to a hand washing obsession by a good portion of the general public ultimately leading to an overall reduction in cold and flu and other respiratory infections this year???

oneeyedag said:

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Interesting piece in the New England Journal of Medicine on the first case in WA.

Timeline



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

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That paper was posted on pg. 79 of this thread on Feb. 2. Groundhog Day deja vu.

It would be nice if Mr. Infectious would bookmark the important research studies on pg. 1, especially since this thread has more than 1 million views already.

Quote:

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It would be nice if Mr. Infectious would bookmark the important research studies on pg. 1.

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I have no idea how to do that.....

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess