The debate here is starting to resemble the one for global warming. Now that it's been politicized it's hard to know what to believe.

Karens fight the Olds for more TP! Desperate times out there folks!

spadilly said:

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Maybe they can devise a system to handle this remotely.

It seems to me that now that there is a public awareness, basic sanitation will improve (more people watching hands, not coughing everywhere, etc)

That combined with the observation that the vast majority of new cases (excluding west coast) seem heavily linked to international travel still.

Also, the knowledge that it is not really airborne is a big factor.

Given all this, the hype certainly smells of the libs trying to talk us into a hysteria induced recession to take down trump in November. Is this a conspiracy theory? Of course. Are they maniacal enough and organized enough to do that? Absolutely.

I just dont see the Communicability making this thing reach like all the "experts" are predicting.

I pray that i am right, but the media hype is starting to not pass the smell test.

West Point Aggie said:

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spadilly said:

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Maybe they can devise a system to handle this remotely.

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Trash can bang = Handshake

aggiedata said:

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Karens fight the Olds for more TP! Desperate times out there folks!

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Every old person in America should learn from this! The woman tried to slap her assailant in the face, which appears to have caused significant alarm on the part of said assailant, who was easily able to physically stop the action.

As an old person, you may be perceived as more highly infectious and at risk. Use this to your advantage.

The biggest plus is public awareness now. I despise the media for weaponizing it with the overdramatized ****, but it did create a lot of public awareness. Take the good with the bad. I think the media push created a lot of public awareness, so people will be more reserved in their moving around for awhile. It will ultimately help with a contaminant administered via common sense. Here, we have media not beholden and owned by the government to drive the narrative. It helped, but you just have to blur out the bull**** with it.

For the numbers/engineering folks. Lots of numbers and words to chew on in this unroll. She seems to have the Academic credentials to back up what she's saying.

Just another data point along the way. Take it for what it's worth.

Here's the whole thread

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

I don't remember seeing this posted on the thread...

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March 3, 2020

American Airlines drops flights from DFW to South Korea over coronavirus concerns

American Airlines will drop flights to South Korea from DFW International Airport until at least late April as the threat of coronavirus continues to spook passengers.

American already had canceled flights from DFW to mainland China and Hong Kong, as well as flights from other airports to northern Italy. The Fort Worth-based airline added Incheon International Airport near Seoul to its cancellation list.

The cancellations start Thursday and American hopes to resume flights on April 25. American's move follows Delta canceling some of its flights into South Korea last week. United Airlines has also reduced flights into South Korea, Japan and Singapore.

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https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2020/03/03/american-airlines-drops-flights-to-south-korea-from-dfw-over-coronavirus-concerns/

fullback44 said:

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This is not Coronavirus.. but Breitbart is reporting over 20,000 flu deaths this year already... so at this point, the flu has been killing roughly 7500 people a month... not good

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/06/update-influenza-deaths-now-total-20000-including-elevated-number-of-136-children/

Conclusion: don't take the flu lightly just because Coronavirus is here

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Indeed. Thankfully the same prevention methods work for both.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/06/im-an-expat-in-seoul-living-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak-i-feel-like-im-living-in-the-end-times/?fbclid=IwAR2TkUHbifPmJXK9JK-rFvuiK--qeVPFR4HY5XkYFgHsBDCRNN7gl_Cpdko/

Daily life from an expat living in Korea now. This is what will happen here shortly. Basically, no one is going anywhere, restaurants are all mostly closed, economy going into the tank, and lots more.

Here is an interesting write up on CFR. The gist is that Naive CFR (deaths/infected) is very flawed and changes a lot over time. Resolved CFR (deaths/recovered + dead) is pretty accurate over the span of the epidemic. If anybody sees anything that would shoot this write up all to hell I would like to hear.

https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/

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Despite the state of emergency, organizers of the Los Angeles Marathon scheduled for March 8 said the international run will continue as planned but there might be changes depending on what happens before the 8th. More than 25,000 runners from around the world are expected to pound Los Angeles' streets in the famed marathon.

Organizers said that should Los Angeles see a surge in confirmed COVID-19 cases before March 8, actions could be taken to modify or cancel the event.

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https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-usa-update-la-marathon-will-continue-despite-california-state-emergency-2934068

Decisions, decisions....what to do? Downplay and go on with normal everyday life OR use potentially overly cautious methods and adjust to a perceived threat.



BTW - St. Patrick's Day is next weekend..... do cities around the country start canceling events, street parties, and parades? I'm going to go out on a limb and say No Freaking Way.

We are all adults, we can make our own decisions. Either stay home/avoid risk of infection or go party in huge crowds and risk potential infection.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/06/im-an-expat-in-seoul-living-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak-i-feel-like-im-living-in-the-end-times/?fbclid=IwAR2TkUHbifPmJXK9JK-rFvuiK--qeVPFR4HY5XkYFgHsBDCRNN7gl_Cpdko/

Daily life from an expat living in Korea now. This is what will happen here shortly. Basically, no one is going anywhere, restaurants are all mostly closed, economy going into the tank, and lots more.

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She sounds like a little bit of a drama queen.

https://regenexx.com/blog/why-i-am-not-concerned-about-the-coronavirus/

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The most accurate data on case fatalities is from the only natural experiment that exists, the Diamond Princess cruise. Why a cruise ship? Because this is a closed environment where we can accurately measure every person who gets sick and know the real number of people who perish based on that exposure.

The cruise ship data shows a fatality rate of 0.85%. All of the people that perished were over 70, which is much more like the seasonal flu. In addition, the ability of the virus to spread was again, not that impressive as only about 20% got the virus. So while this bug is nasty, it's NOT the middle-aged killer that the media has been making it out to be.

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On issue with the adults making their own decision logic is those adults don't live in a vacuum. They'll be going to work on Monday infected without symptoms and can potentially pass the virus to their co-workers. Those infected then can really wind up overburdening our hospitals if the number of severe cases shoots through the roof.

At some point it is all about public health

Bubonic Plague ended up being one of the great economic boons to mid 14th Century Europe. Maybe this one will fix our Social Security problem?

wbt5845 said:

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Bubonic Plague ended up being one of the great economic boons to mid 14th Century Europe. Maybe this one will fix our Social Security problem?

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It led to the creation of CVS, right?

Public health be damned. People want what they want. The people that can make the decisions to cancel Chicago's SouthSide Irish Parade (huge party) or the downtown parade (turning the river green) live in those communities and are ultimately politicians. They will be outcasts if they "ruin" St. Patty's day. Same thing all around the country.

The masses (and businesses) want a party. **** it, give it to them....let the chips fall where they may.

I'll be at home chilling. I've been in those crowds before. I know what I'm missing. What I don't know is how sick I'll get if the infection is in the crowd. Rather not take the chance myself. Everyone else has to make up their own mind.

Apparently St Cecilias in Memorial in Houston had one of the infected people there on Wednesday at 5:30 mass.

If you sat in the back 3 rows, you are supposed to call the health department.

I dont have facebook, but if you do, its on there

CrazyRichAggie said:

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https://regenexx.com/blog/why-i-am-not-concerned-about-the-coronavirus/

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The most accurate data on case fatalities is from the only natural experiment that exists, the Diamond Princess cruise. Why a cruise ship? Because this is a closed environment where we can accurately measure every person who gets sick and know the real number of people who perish based on that exposure.

The cruise ship data shows a fatality rate of 0.85%. All of the people that perished were over 70, which is much more like the seasonal flu. In addition, the ability of the virus to spread was again, not that impressive as only about 20% got the virus. So while this bug is nasty, it's NOT the middle-aged killer that the media has been making it out to be.

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I think I disagree with the idea that the cruise ship is a very good "experiment". Tons of selection bias among the "participants" and more importantly, a ton of control in the ability to monitor and tell people what to do and where to go. It's much easier to manage a few thousand than a population moving freely about. Just look at the impact of a single lawyer in NYC who just went about his normal life before he realized he had it.

A sub 1% death rate would be great though. Certainly hope it's true.

This is good info and a reminder of good practices during these times of deep concern about Covid-19. It comes from a doc who has studied it since the 1970s. His letter speaks to prevention.

Quote:

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James A. Robb is an American pathologist and molecular virologist.
He has a BA in theoretical physics from the University of Colorado. In 1965 he entered the University of Colorado Medical School where he received his MD degree. He took a residency in pathology, as well as training in molecular biology, at Yale University, then went to work at the National Institutes of Health. He has been a professor at the University of California, San Diego,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-1][1][/url] a consulting pathologist at the National Cancer Institute, and director of anatomic and molecular pathology at Cedars Medical Center in Miami, Florida.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-2][2][/url] He is board certified in anatomic pathology, clinical pathology, cytopathology, and dermatopathology.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-3][3][/url]
During the 1970s while he was at UC-San Diego, Robb published some of the earliest descriptions of coronaviruses.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-snopes-4][4][/url] He co-wrote the chapter on coronaviruses in the book Comprehensive Virology[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-5][5][/url] and has published extensively on the subject.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-6][6][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-7][7][/url] In February 2020 he wrote a "Dear colleagues" letter detailing his advice on how to avoid contracting COVID-19 and similar diseases; on March 2 several sources posted the letter online and it went viral.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Robb_(pathologist)#cite_note-snopes-4][[/url]

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Some good thoughts about prevention.

The letter below is from a neighbor of ours in NC who has worked on the coronaviruses as early as the 1970's as a professor in molecular virology at University of California San Diego. He has stayed current on the COVID-19 virus. He is giving his view on the current Coronavirus and the precautions he is taking to prevent infection. Feel free to pass this on.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.

Dear Colleagues, as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources. The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves. NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc. Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove. Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts. Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been. Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands. If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US: Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas. Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it.

Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available. I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic.

You are welcome to share this email.

Good luck to all of us!

Jim James Robb, MD FCAP

wbt5845 said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/06/im-an-expat-in-seoul-living-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak-i-feel-like-im-living-in-the-end-times/?fbclid=IwAR2TkUHbifPmJXK9JK-rFvuiK--qeVPFR4HY5XkYFgHsBDCRNN7gl_Cpdko/

Daily life from an expat living in Korea now. This is what will happen here shortly. Basically, no one is going anywhere, restaurants are all mostly closed, economy going into the tank, and lots more.

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She sounds like a little bit of a drama queen.

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Of course, most expats are, but still it's a glimpse at what is happening from the inside.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Public health be damned. People want what they want. The people that can make the decisions to cancel Chicago's SouthSide Irish Parade (huge party) or the downtown parade (turning the river green) live in those communities and are ultimately politicians. They will be outcasts if they "ruin" St. Patty's day. Same thing all around the country.

The masses (and businesses) want a party. **** it, give it to them....let the chips fall where they may.

I'll be at home chilling. I've been in those crowds before. I know what I'm missing. What I don't know is how sick I'll get if the infection is in the crowd. Rather not take the chance myself. Everyone else has to make up their own mind.

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I think some people just believe we if we take precautions, that being out in crowds isn't a sentence to illness. I have been out the last two nights and I am taking my son out tonight to True/False. People in the crowds are being careful. That has been my observation. No one wants to get sick. But they also don't want life to end due to fears.

It may get a lot a worse and I will see things differently in 4 weeks (after Pearl Jam), but for now, I am not scared of getting it.

Oh look what google yields. A 25 year old girl traveling the world looking for attention.
http://ashtonalayne.com/

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A sore disappointment to my parents because I refuse to live in the "real world." Thought I wanted to make a travel blog, but that's not really my thing. So instead I'm just here to share some very sad realities of my existence. If you enjoy stories about Vietnamese men awkwardly brushing your arm because you're pale, and unfortunate run-ins with squatty potties- this is the blog for you!

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My assessment a few pages back

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Coronavirus is ultimately going to show large corporations how pointless it is to make employees come into huge offices every ****ing day when they realize there is no loss of productivity and actually an increase in productivity while working from home. Commercial office building space could take a hit over the next few years.

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Those numbers are already out of date. Another person has died from that cruise ship. Only about 1/3 on the cruise ship have recovered, yet, he simply uses "total cases" in calculating the fatality rate. Quite a few people are still sick. Seems like the author has an agenda to push.

The run on TP cracks me up (pun intended). WTF are people thinking?

CrazyRichAggie said:

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https://regenexx.com/blog/why-i-am-not-concerned-about-the-coronavirus/

Quote:

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The most accurate data on case fatalities is from the only natural experiment that exists, the Diamond Princess cruise. Why a cruise ship? Because this is a closed environment where we can accurately measure every person who gets sick and know the real number of people who perish based on that exposure.

The cruise ship data shows a fatality rate of 0.85%. All of the people that perished were over 70, which is much more like the seasonal flu. In addition, the ability of the virus to spread was again, not that impressive as only about 20% got the virus. So while this bug is nasty, it's NOT the middle-aged killer that the media has been making it out to be.

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The only thing I would add is that I doubt the age distribution on the cruise ship matches the general population. So while the death rate on the cruise was.85%; the age distribution of cruise passengers is generally skewed older...and the longer, more expensive, more international, etc., the cruise, the age skews even older. As a result, the 0.85 rate would not be applicable to the general population. The end result is going to be much lower.

Does the Corona 19 cause volcanic diarrhea? Is the general thought here that you won't want to leave your house thus you need 6 months worth of TP but only have 3 weeks of food?

aggiedata said:

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Does the Corona 19 cause volcanic diarrhea? Is the general thought here that you won't want to leave your house thus you need 6 months worth of TP but only have 3 weeks of food?

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Maybe it is the kinda of food they stockpiled that makes them think they need that much toilet paper?