KorbinDallas said:

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Cassius said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Vaccine trials to begin in Seattle.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-clinical-trial-recruitment/281-a33490a2-e3e4-4911-94fc-60473c2d4fe7

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Great, this 14 month study that has a 55 year old upper cap on age will save us...

I get that it's a step but it's not a short cut.

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https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

14 months is for long term safety. No way around that.

They are looking for evidence that the vaccine is safe to give, not efficacy. They should have preliminary results for that in 2-3 months, depending on how fast they can start.

Moderna (MRNA) has a trial start date set at March 19 for a vaccine

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/

Here are the issues with the CDC's response and the reason that our "confirmed" numbers mean absolutely nothing.

It almost seems intentional...

That's the same study posted above. Would estimate some kind of result by early June if that start date is right (day 1 dose, not screening).

I agree and understand. My point is that it's not a silver bullet. Unfortunately we still have to deal with this in the short-medium term. The treatment study's of already approved drugs will be what really makes an impact, and those are goin on now. Hopefully we will find a great drug or combo that will put a dent in the disease.

2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

Anybody have any thoughts about what closing TAMU would do to the b/CS economy?

hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

queso1 said:

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Anybody have any thoughts about what closing TAMU would do to the b/CS economy?

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Might be able to find toilet paper and hand sanitizer in the stores again.

nm

Rapier108 said:

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hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

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Better yet why did we do nothing to screen these people given what was going in on China?

Rapier108 said:

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hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

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People are selfish. They also want to be sick here and not in a foreign country (assuming he's American).

AgsMyDude said:

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Rapier108 said:

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hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

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Better yet why did we do nothing to screen these people given what was going in on China?

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Because CDC doesn't want to create panic and you can't have cases if you don't test for it. No tests = No cases = Baghdad Bob

Can we stop flights yet?

3-4 Week Spring Break!

cisgenderedAggie said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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Rapier108 said:

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hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

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Better yet why did we do nothing to screen these people given what was going in on China?

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Because CDC doesn't want to create panic and you can't have cases if you don't test for it. No tests = No cases = Baghdad Bob

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And the Dow will still be doing great! Or not ...

KorbinDallas said:

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Can we stop flights yet?

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It's crazy. If they were China restrictions would already be in place.

KidDoc said:

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LaQuica said:

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Pretty sure plague doctors still got the plague during the Black Death outbreak they were covered head to toe .

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That is because the bubonic plague was spread by rat fleas not airborne droplets.


The more ya know!

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Maybe, maybe not.

Quote:

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Plague is infamous as the cause of the Black Death (13471353) and later Second Pandemic (14th to 19th centuries CE), when devastating epidemics occurred throughout Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. Despite the historical significance of the disease, the mechanisms underlying the spread of plague in Europe are poorly understood. While it is commonly assumed that rats and their fleas spread plague during the Second Pandemic, there is little historical and archaeological support for such a claim. Here, we show that human ectoparasites, like body lice and human fleas, might be more likely than rats to have caused the rapidly developing epidemics in pre-Industrial Europe. Such an alternative transmission route explains many of the notable epidemiological differences between historical and modern plague epidemics.

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nortex97 said:

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KidDoc said:

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LaQuica said:

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Pretty sure plague doctors still got the plague during the Black Death outbreak they were covered head to toe .

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That is because the bubonic plague was spread by rat fleas not airborne droplets.


The more ya know!

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Maybe, maybe not.

Quote:

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Plague is infamous as the cause of the Black Death (13471353) and later Second Pandemic (14th to 19th centuries CE), when devastating epidemics occurred throughout Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. Despite the historical significance of the disease, the mechanisms underlying the spread of plague in Europe are poorly understood. While it is commonly assumed that rats and their fleas spread plague during the Second Pandemic, there is little historical and archaeological support for such a claim. Here, we show that human ectoparasites, like body lice and human fleas, might be more likely than rats to have caused the rapidly developing epidemics in pre-Industrial Europe. Such an alternative transmission route explains many of the notable epidemiological differences between historical and modern plague epidemics.

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Well, gross.

They made the choice to keep the economy going as much as possible and deal with the health issues as they come vs. shutting things down proactively and absolutely devastating economic activity.

Two extremely bad options to choose from...I think they made the right call.


It's a giant **** sandwich, everyone is going to have to take a bite at some point. Might as well put it off for as long as possible and hope for a miracle.

KorbinDallas said:

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AggieChemist said:

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Trump is in ATL at CDC headquarters today. Will be interesting to see what comes out of those meetings.

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Per fox radio he cancelled that, didn't want to "get in the way of their work"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/politics/trump-cancels-cdc-visit/index.html

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My opinion of him just went up.

Mr.Infectious said:

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They made the choice to keep the economy going as much as possible and deal with the health issues as they come vs. shutting things down proactively and absolutely devastating economic activity.

Two extremely bad options to choose from...I think they made the right call.


It's a giant **** sandwich, everyone is going to have to take a bite at some point. Might as well put it off for as long as possible and hope for a miracle.

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What makes no sense is quarantining all passengers from the Diamond ship but completely lax restrictions on the Asian flights and even now no screening on Italian flights.

It's like they threw in the towel after the first community spread case popped up.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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Rapier108 said:

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hoosierAG said:

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2nd person in NC confirmed...flew back from ....wait for it....Italy and was symptomatic in Italy and when he flew back.


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus-sickens-second-person-in-nc/18996626/

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Italy of course, and the asshat was already sick.

What the hell is it with people who think they need to roam around all over the place while ill with some disease?

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Better yet why did we do nothing to screen these people given what was going in on China?

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Because CDC doesn't want to create panic and you can't have cases if you don't test for it. No tests = No cases = Baghdad Bob

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So just delay the panic then by letting tons of infected into the country instead of taking the warning signs and ramping up test kit manufacturing. Bold move.

All the communication about testing should have been prepared weeks ago. This is not like testing the chlorine in your pool with a little kit that anyone could do. They didn't think through a single message about manufacturing, logistics, training, timing and amount so getting mixed messages in all of it.
The Trump team made the classic mistake of over promising and under delivering in terms amount of kits and timing of delivery. Giving lots of ammo to his critics.

queso1 said:

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Anybody have any thoughts about what closing TAMU would do to the b/CS economy?

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What if I told you that tamu students were brought back from Italy and quarantined at local hotels, unbeknownst to the public?

mole said:

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queso1 said:

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Anybody have any thoughts about what closing TAMU would do to the b/CS economy?

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What if I told you that tamu students were brought back from Italy and quarantined at local hotels, unbeknownst to the public?

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Wouldn't surprise me at all. When someone writes a book about all this in a few years, a lot of details like this is going to come out. People will just shrug it off and say that they did what they had to do.

B-1 83 said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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Unbelievable...

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Yes it is. I'm checking my CBP source on that one......

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My DFW CBP source says their flags right now are set for automatic secondary screening if someone has been in China or Iran since December. CDC has the ability to "see" who is coming in and where they've been, and stop them after clearing immigration/customs. After they leave him, he can't tell if CDC snatches them or not. Other countries are testing passengers who get off flights from certain areas to catch a flight to the US. Customs only makes the call if flagged to do so.

PJYoung said:

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This kind of story fits right in with Lemonjello and Oranjello.

If direct flights are halted, people will just get rerouted to connect through LHR or FRA. Though, it is blatantly obvious there are different rules for European countries than there is for China.

They need to add Italy, Korea...

mole said:

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queso1 said:

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Anybody have any thoughts about what closing TAMU would do to the b/CS economy?

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What if I told you that tamu students were brought back from Italy and quarantined at local hotels, unbeknownst to the public?

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Go no...

Skillet Shot said:

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dragmagpuff said:

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-tested-140-000-031000719.html

So in South Korea they have tested 140,000 people for Coronavirus and found ~6,500 cases. Of those 6,500 cases, they have 135 recoveries and 42 deaths so far. Due to their massive testing program, they have to be finding a higher percentage of the cases than elsewhere.

So there the actual death rate is at least 0.6% (6 times higher than flu), but likely higher as the other ~6,300 cases resolve. Recoveries should lag deaths as you die before you would have recovered. As reported elsewhere, most of their deaths are in the older population.

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Mortality rate is difficult to estimate in the middle of a pandemic.

total deaths/total recovered = 23%
total deaths/total confirmed cases = 0.06%
Neither one is accurate, but in all likelihood the mortality rate is > 1.5%. Unless there are the "thousands of mild cases" that are never tested for and never recorded, that some are claiming.

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I have noticed the graceful piroutte from "It will never spread in the good old USA because first world hygiene and healthcare" to "It's not that bad, there's probably 1000s of cases in our hygienic first world country".