Nuclear Scramjet said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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UncoverAg00 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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bmks270 said:

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So every US case is linked to some international traveler. Can we please just close the borders to incoming travelers? No non-citizens.

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We can't close our borders period.

I'm of the mind now to let this thing run wild. It already is, the only thing is people are pretending like they are stopping it.

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Some of our families are going to be the hardest hit... excuse me if I don't think giving up on trying is an option. I apologize if that comes across as defensive, but I'm not going to lie, I'm very concerned for my daughters. If I have to continue reminding people not everyone is safe in order to up their chances of avoiding this, that's what I'm going to do.

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I get that. And I'm trying as well as I've got two young kids myself. I've washed my hands, used hand sanitizer, and cancelled work trips.

All I'm saying is Im starting to believe that what I'm doing is actually not helping. I'm not sure anything can help. Doesn't mean I don't stop trying.

But to truly stop this we either lock everyone in their house for a month, or we pray that warmer weather does help the slow of it.

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This is a bad take. I can't find the graphic but there was an excellent plot posted earlier in this thread that illustrated why prevention/containment efforts are vital to containing an epidemic/pandemic. It consisted of two bell curves, one tall and skinny and one that was lower and flatter. Can someone repost? I feel like it should be posted every time someone says we should just let it ride.

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It was Hong Kong. Just from hygiene practices alone they had a massive drop in the diagnoses of ALL infectious diseases, not just coronavirus. Almost everything dropped to near zero just from that alone.

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That was a good one too but not the one I'm thinking of.

swimmerbabe11 said:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/28/i-have-coronavirus-so-far-it-isnt-that-bad/

diary of a princess cruiser

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Pretty big contrast from the English kid that claims he was one of the first

Safe at Home said:

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I appreciate all the smart people here sharing your knowledge with us. I hope one of them can answer two questions I have been wondering about.

Is there a way to estimate how many people in the US have been infected? Is there a method to estimate the ratio of people infected to those who have been diagnosed? Without more testing I don't see how that could be done, but maybe there are data from past pandemics?

What is it that can cause a virus like this to run its course, other than warm weather which has been explained here. A population can't build immunity to a virus unless most people are infected by it can it? It seems like it has peaked in China, but warm weather shouldn't be a factor there, not yet.

If these are dumb questions, please be patient with me. I am just trying to learn.

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The only way to know real numbers is to literally go door to door and test. There are always subclinical viral infections brewing and this is likely not different. Children seem to tolerate this well but I promise you they will spread it like wildfire.

Warm weather should help especially with the outdoor fomite spread. The survivors should develop immunity and that is how most viral infections extinguish naturally. This one doesn't seem to give long term immunity from available data.

Honestly a vaccine is the most likely thing to stop this in 12-18 months.

The 10% ICU data put of Italy is very concerning.

GarlandAg2012 said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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UncoverAg00 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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bmks270 said:

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So every US case is linked to some international traveler. Can we please just close the borders to incoming travelers? No non-citizens.

---

We can't close our borders period.

I'm of the mind now to let this thing run wild. It already is, the only thing is people are pretending like they are stopping it.

---

Some of our families are going to be the hardest hit... excuse me if I don't think giving up on trying is an option. I apologize if that comes across as defensive, but I'm not going to lie, I'm very concerned for my daughters. If I have to continue reminding people not everyone is safe in order to up their chances of avoiding this, that's what I'm going to do.

---

I get that. And I'm trying as well as I've got two young kids myself. I've washed my hands, used hand sanitizer, and cancelled work trips.

All I'm saying is Im starting to believe that what I'm doing is actually not helping. I'm not sure anything can help. Doesn't mean I don't stop trying.

But to truly stop this we either lock everyone in their house for a month, or we pray that warmer weather does help the slow of it.

---

This is a bad take. I can't find the graphic but there was an excellent plot posted earlier in this thread that illustrated why prevention/containment efforts are vital to containing an epidemic/pandemic. It consisted of two bell curves, one tall and skinny and one that was lower and flatter. Can someone repost? I feel like it should be posted every time someone says we should just let it ride.

---

It was Hong Kong. Just from hygiene practices alone they had a massive drop in the diagnoses of ALL infectious diseases, not just coronavirus. Almost everything dropped to near zero just from that alone.

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That was a good one too but not the one I'm thinking of.

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Something like this, I think?

If you'd read it it is quite detailed on case definition.

TexasAggiesWin said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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UncoverAg00 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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bmks270 said:

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So every US case is linked to some international traveler. Can we please just close the borders to incoming travelers? No non-citizens.

---

We can't close our borders period.

I'm of the mind now to let this thing run wild. It already is, the only thing is people are pretending like they are stopping it.

---

Some of our families are going to be the hardest hit... excuse me if I don't think giving up on trying is an option. I apologize if that comes across as defensive, but I'm not going to lie, I'm very concerned for my daughters. If I have to continue reminding people not everyone is safe in order to up their chances of avoiding this, that's what I'm going to do.

---

I get that. And I'm trying as well as I've got two young kids myself. I've washed my hands, used hand sanitizer, and cancelled work trips.

All I'm saying is Im starting to believe that what I'm doing is actually not helping. I'm not sure anything can help. Doesn't mean I don't stop trying.

But to truly stop this we either lock everyone in their house for a month, or we pray that warmer weather does help the slow of it.

---

This is a bad take. I can't find the graphic but there was an excellent plot posted earlier in this thread that illustrated why prevention/containment efforts are vital to containing an epidemic/pandemic. It consisted of two bell curves, one tall and skinny and one that was lower and flatter. Can someone repost? I feel like it should be posted every time someone says we should just let it ride.

---

It was Hong Kong. Just from hygiene practices alone they had a massive drop in the diagnoses of ALL infectious diseases, not just coronavirus. Almost everything dropped to near zero just from that alone.

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That was a good one too but not the one I'm thinking of.

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Something like this, I think?

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That's the one I was thinking of.

sawthemoffxx said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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From
https://pandemic.internationalsos.com/2019-ncov/executive-summary

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I would bet those numbers would be even lower if you isolate outside of China as well, correct.

I believe the death rate inside China is something like 4% but outside just .7%.

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Dont think so, the nursing facility in WA had similar numbers

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How often does a nursing facility represent the entire population? Makes no sense to base death rates on a nursing facility.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/breaking-report-congressional-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

Congressional staffer diagnosed with it. Also lots may have been exposed at AIPAC.

IrishTxAggie said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/28/i-have-coronavirus-so-far-it-isnt-that-bad/

diary of a princess cruiser

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Pretty big contrast from the English kid that claims he was one of the first

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The scary thing is how long he is feeling fine but still positive. Want to know how to spread a virus? That is how you do it.

Contrast that with Ebola that is so aggressive it stops it's own pandemic by killing people too well.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/breaking-report-congressional-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

Congressional staffer diagnosed with it. Also lots may have been exposed at AIPAC.

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Reminds me of Mars Attacks "I would like to remind the American public that you still have 2/3 branches of the American govt functioning and that ain't bad"

But you can't just not count the nursing homes. It's going to take months and years to get to an accurate number after sorting through all of the data on all of the cases domestically and internationally.


We are quick to say people in the US will be fine simply based on age. Have you seen the "average" adult 30-45 male and female at a Wal-Mart??? Obesity caused by poor diet/nutrition runs rampant in our culture. We have no idea how this is going to effect them. I'm guessing, not well.

What type of equipment and personnel are needed to perform the tests (re: the post by Abbott about Texas being able to do 125 per day once things are ramped up)?

I'm wondering if this equipment and personnel are mostly located in research universities here in the states and the process of pooling all of those resources in a system like ours might be insanely difficult and time consuming compared to doing the same in a small country like South Korea where (assumption) the facilities and personnel all report to the federal government?

I.e. stop all research and other work you are doing on that equipment and run COVID-19 tests 24x7

• USA Researcher: Da***?
• SK Researcher: Whatever you say, boss!

Way back in the early pages of this thread I remember some articles that mentioned a malaria drug that they said showed some promise I'm treating Covid-19. Anyone know if that actually panned out?

You've hit on my question. If a person can be contagious for up to a week or two without showing symptoms, what really is the point in testing unless you test everyone (those showing symptoms and those not showing symptoms) at the appropriate same time?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/breaking-report-congressional-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

Congressional staffer diagnosed with it. Also lots may have been exposed at AIPAC.

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Be wary of anything in the Gateway Pundit. They do not have a good track record and tend to sensationalize their headlines.

Tucker said there might be a staffer with it.

According to the local DC news outlets, there are two tests in DC that are pending.

And apparently the connection to the possible staffer case is the lawyer in New York who spread it all over the freaking place.

Premium said:

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So two of the ones in Houston are supposedly at Memorial Hermann in The Woodlands.

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Source? Personal knowledge?

LostInLA07 said:

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Premium said:

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So two of the ones in Houston are supposedly at Memorial Hermann in The Woodlands.

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Source? Personal knowledge?

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I saw information about this on reddit. Something like 10 people in Houston were all part of that tour group to Egypt

KorbinDallas said:

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Unbelievable...

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What would asking her accomplish? Can't send her back to Italy, she's an American citizen.

You have such a hard on for making this seem like world war z. Of course people who are in bad health won't do well with this- regardless of age. Same with elderly. Same with those who have respiratory conditions. I bet people who have compromised immune systems won't do well either. The common cold is rough on this population as well. How about all the people that have it now, who don't even know it, but just have a case of the "junk" and will be fine and back to work on Monday? You and Shepherd Smith should get together soon and compare notes on how to hype a situation.

Some info on the testing process:

• The test kit is called the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time Reverse Transcriptase (RT)-PCR Diagnostic Panel."
• It is intended for use with the Applied Biosystems 7500 Fast DX Real-Time PCR Instrument with SDS 1.4 software.
• This test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens... for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests.

Sources:

• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html
• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html - This reads like a user manual to the lab technician

AgsMyDude said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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Premium said:

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So two of the ones in Houston are supposedly at Memorial Hermann in The Woodlands.

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Source? Personal knowledge?

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I saw information about this on reddit. Something like 10 people in Houston were all part of that tour group to Egypt

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And everyone from the group is quarantined and being tested.

LostInLA07 said:

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Premium said:

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So two of the ones in Houston are supposedly at Memorial Hermann in The Woodlands.

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Source? Personal knowledge?

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Employee at work who's husband is a physician... do not think directly related to this "news". Since pointed to this Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirusTX/comments/fdeh84/alert_the_woodlands_texas_2_potential_cases_at/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

flakrat said:

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What type of equipment and personnel are needed to perform the tests (re: the post by Abbott about Texas being able to do 125 per day once things are ramped up)?

I'm wondering if this equipment and personnel are mostly located in research universities here in the states and the process of pooling all of those resources in a system like ours might be insanely difficult and time consuming compared to doing the same in a small country like South Korea where (assumption) the facilities and personnel all report to the federal government?

I.e. stop all research and other work you are doing on that equipment and run COVID-19 tests 24x7

• USA Researcher: Da***?
• SK Researcher: Whatever you say, boss!

---

I don't understand the throughput issues. These are supposed be quantitative RT-PCR assays and the equipment is pretty standard in a modern molecular biology lab. I've never used a machine that couldn't run at least 96 reactions at a time and a run probably doesn't take longer than 3 hrs from setup to results. Assuming their running 5 replicates for positive and negative controls and each test, there should be room for 10-15 tests for each 96 well run.

Every research university in the state probably has at least a dozen machines for this, but the lab space and maintenance might not be up to specs. All short term problems for an emergency.

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/ozzy-osbourne-cancels-sxsw-appearance-coronavirus-963271/

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/beastie-boys-ozzy-osbourne-trent-013243614.html

flakrat said:

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Some info on the testing process:

• The test kit is called the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time Reverse Transcriptase (RT)-PCR Diagnostic Panel."
• It is intended for use with the Applied Biosystems 7500 Fast DX Real-Time PCR Instrument with SDS 1.4 software.
• This test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens... for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests.

Sources:

• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html
• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html - This reads like a user manual to the lab technician

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So they need to be validated for use with other systems. Not sure why that cant be done pretty quickly.

KorbinDallas said:

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Unbelievable...

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Believable, intentional, inevitable...

Total dick move.

TexasAggie_02 said:

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https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/beastie-boys-ozzy-osbourne-trent-013243614.html

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I mean, if Ozzie got Corona...

They should test magic mushrooms on him now that it's legal there. Who know, maybe a good (or bad) trip might kill the virus....

Forget selfie sticks, Chinese "hair dressers" attach sticks to their tools for work!

Pretty funny video.

https://www.newsflare.com/video/342235/entertainment-arts/-?jwsource=cl