China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,279,187 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Aust Ag
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AeroAg2003 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Tanya 93 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Muy said:

Major business conferences are being shut down. Shop.org in Vegas, a large retail/e-commerce show has been **** down later this month.

Business travel in our company of 50k employees has been **** down unless the travel is critical.

Many customers are requesting no onsite meetings from any vendors for now.
Not SXSW in austin though...the show must go on. Yesterday they said cancelling the event will not make the residents any safer...baffling.
would it even be possible to reschedule something this big for the summer in Austin? And would people want to come then/
IMO rescheduling should be of little concern right now. We have no cases (yet) in Austin and keeping it that way should be the goal. Having a thousands of people come from all over the country and world to stand tightly packed in bars, etc. does not seem like a sound idea right now. Not only can that spread it locally, but people will fly home to wherever and possibly spread it there as well.
Little do most know, Austin held one of the world's largest aircraft trading and financing conferences this past Sunday through Wednesday. The virus is either going to spread and we are going to get past it (with many infected) or we are going to have to completely shut down nearly all commerce.

I'm for the get through it path (with a strong focus on hygiene). I'm not sure you can really stop it without completely tanking the economy for a very long time.
I agree, the show should go on. I went to The Oasis a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed there was a lot of tourists there (like usual), many from other countries. I think people will still come visit Austin from outpost unknown, whether SXSW happens or not. Also, there is ALOT of pressure being put on by the hospitality industry here locally for this event to happen. This and ACL is their Super Bowl, and they stand to lose millions.

Time will tell what was the right call.
tysker
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CDub06 said:

tysker said:

law-apt-3g said:

tysker said:

yukmonkey said:

Really wish people could focus on posting news and facts here. Sifting through 200 responses to find anything valuable is getting tougher and tougher.
Maybe there's just no relevant or valuable news to discuss. Do we need to post every conference or music festival that is being canceled? Until this reaches Texas, its not going to be super relevant for most of us.


It's in Texas
And all known cases (for now) are in quarantine... Unless that's changed.
Sure, sure... All "Known" cases. WE AINT BEEN TESTING ANYONE.

This thing is absolutely in Houston and Austin and Dallas. When true test results come back, that number is going to make a huge jump and people are going to freak out.
Or maybe people will realize its not a bad/deadly as we were initially told if we've already been exposed.
If you're of the belief its already here in the US in large numbers, we would we have seen effects by now, right? Maybe we already did with the recent uptick in flu cases during the 2019-2020 flu season and this strain wasn't tested for because the Drs didn't know to check. But that seems a bit conspiratorial.
FTAG 2000
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tysker said:

dragmagpuff said:

tysker said:

yukmonkey said:

Really wish people could focus on posting news and facts here. Sifting through 200 responses to find anything valuable is getting tougher and tougher.
Maybe there's just no relevant or valuable news to discuss. Do we need to post every conference or music festival that is being canceled? Until this reaches Texas, its not going to be super relevant for most of us.
It did reach Texas in Fort Bend County.
presumptive =/ positive
That doesnt mean we shouldn't be diligent but even the article quotes the Mayor:
Quote:

"While people need to remain vigilant, there is currently no need for average Houstonains to take out-of-the-ordinary protective actions," Turner said.


Just to clarify here, the presumptive positive is going to come back positive. Just because the CDC hasn't blessed the test results doesn't mean squat. This is the same CDC that has wandered around with its head up its ass for the last month on testing kits.
VaultingChemist
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AeroAg2003 said:

VaultingChemist said:

A very short summary on the virus for those who haven't kept up on this thread...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1235402290997141505.html
Not sure how to digest his commentary and advice when his first statement is to promote buying masks. This sort of stuff only serves to attract attention to the author and generate hysteria. Masks will only be good to keep those with the virus from infecting others. It won't protect you much from getting it.

However, it does create a run on masks and add to the supply shortages across many commodities.
You missed the point. The first two tweets are a month old. He is just showing that he understood the problem a long time ago.
one MEEN Ag
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techno-ag said:

one MEEN Ag said:

Tabasco said:

eric76 said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
Totally unrelated to Corona Virus.

I am a Clinical Psychologist. I did a practicum at Warm Springs Rehabilitation Hospital in Warm Springs, GA (where FDR did his polio treatments). I had TWO separate patients within the year I was there that were both struck with lighting. Seriously... I met two people that were both struck by lighting and survived. Oddly, they both shared one similarity, an unquenchable thirst. They both independently said they were constantly thirsty.

That's all. Just always found that to be interesting.
Any regression analysis on the quantity of golf courses in a given area compared to the density of lightning strikes? Make sure you use SPSS and site your sources using APA.
Ooo a social science quant person. How you doin?
Married to one and helped with the stats classes when I could. During grad school I always joked that I took grad level stats once for my own degree, but every semester after for my wife's PhD. Anyone here shudder at the name of Bruce's stats classes? I learned more about stats just listening to second hand knowledge about him than any class I sat in.
HelloUncleNateFitch
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So this is just another stain of coronavirus that's going to hit the population, and in a year or two we'll mostly have some immunity so it will affect people like a cold and/or we'll just get vaccinated.

So we should be proactive with getting old people medical care, and use good hygiene practices?

Nope.

**** that.

Report every case like it's a zombie virus.

Raid grocery stores - 2 bags of beans and 6-8k water bottles should do the trick for some ****ing reason.

Shut down the world economy.
Rapier108
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tysker said:

Rapier108 said:

tysker said:

Rapier108 said:

Mr.Infectious said:

Quote:


Coronavirus in N.Y.: 9 New Cases, All Connected to Westchester Man

The state's disease detectives continued working furiously, sorting through the circle of friends, family and co-workers of the people who had tested positive for the virus. State officials said they had asked more than 1,000 people to voluntarily isolate themselves.

"We are trying to do as much investigation work as possible," Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said. He added: "It's impossible to fully contain it, but you put enough people on notice."

The nine new cases in New York on Wednesday included the Westchester man's wife; his son, a 20-year-old college student in Manhattan; his daughter, 14; and a neighbor who drove the man to the hospital.

A friend of the man who spent time "in close proximity" with him also tested positive for the virus, as did that friend's wife and three of their children, Mr. Cuomo said.

Officials said they were still uncertain how the man, 50, who had not been to any areas with widespread transmission of the virus, had become infected. He became ill on Feb. 22 and was admitted to NewYork-Presbyterian Lawrence Hospital in Bronxville, N.Y., five days later.

So far, public health workers have focused their efforts on determining whether any other people connected to the man were infected. They advised some nurses and doctors at the hospital in Bronxville that they would need to be quarantined. Eight employees there were being tested for the virus, Mr. Cuomo said on Wednesday.

On Tuesday night, restaurants on a main avenue in New Rochelle were nearly empty, and store shelves had been cleared out of spray disinfectant, rubbing alcohol and bleach.

Health officials halted all services at the synagogue the family attended, Young Israel of New Rochelle, closing the house of worship until March 8. They also told anyone who had attended a funeral and a bat mitzvah there on Feb. 23 to self-quarantine in their homes.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-yeshiva-university.html

Last I saw he was in critical condition. One man impacts about 1000 people. No trace on how he got it.


Unfortunately If this happened to him, this (getting infected or being traced to an infected person) could happen to any of us.

This virus is wicked. It's not fear mongering, it's reality at this point.
Of course part of the problem is he (and his son) continued to go about their usual routines while showing symptoms.
Hard to blame them when its unclear how/when/where the man became infected and the symptoms seem so benign

But when you're sick, just stay home. Doesn't matter if it is mild and you think it is just a cold. If people would do this, we would have far fewer cases of flu/colds/stomach viruses/etc. every year.
While I agree with the sentiment, how does one differentiate between cold weather sniffles, allergies and this virus? Have you ever lived where its cold or people have seasonal allergies; they're not 'sick' or communicable but it sure looks the same? I personally dont think its so simple for everyone, all the time to isolate themselves for every mild cold-like symptoms for 5-7 days especially for those of us that are generally healthy 99.9% of the time.

Yes I have, and I have allergies.

There is a difference in a slightly stuffy/runny nose and no other symptoms and coming down with an actual illness.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jagvocate
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Expect travel restrictions from your better-managed multinational companies, especially to outbreak countries (China, Italy, etc.)

Establish milestones for your next level of protection. COVID19 in US means maybe stock up on some non-perishables, COVID19 in your county means curtail public eating and activities, Growing cases in your county means even more self-limiting activities, etc.

DVC2010
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JaneDoe02 said:

VaultingChemist said:

KorbinDallas said:

VaultingChemist said:

Mr.Infectious said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

This whole thing is laughable. How many people died of common flu this year? I'll bet my house it's more than ever dies from coronavirus in the USA.

Oh and I'd ridicule the cdc that dropped off infected people at a mall but last time I said CDC was politicized trash I was called an antivaxxer and banned by staff for being "aggressive" even tho I insulted no one and another poster called me garbage.



You know how I know you're new here........


Seriously, don't try to make this all about you and your feels.

Sack up, do some research and try to keep up with the rest of us.

It's a much bigger issue than just an infection at this point. Big changes coming to economy and society with this.
Be nice!

Especially to those who haven't been following this disease closely.

Normalcy bias is going to be very difficult to overcome for a lot of people.


You say to be nice, but you have to admit it's pretty rude to come to a thread with over 10,000 posts, and make the same tired argument that (I feel) has been soundly disproven dozens of times. I have no doubt we will continue to see this as things heat up. When people come in and don't bother to read anything about the virus other than what's of the msm it's frustrating to those who have taken the time to research and share huge amounts of excellent information like many in this thread.
Yes, it is rude. But after he posted that he didn't know there was a relationship between coronavirus and pneumonia, I felt like I was talking to a passenger on the Titanic who was laughing at the people boarding the life boats.

Most things aren't a matter of life and death. This one actually is.


I don't really care if anyone makes fun of me for getting on a life boat (stocking up on supplies and groceries).

I'm going to do what I think is best for my family.

I'm really tired of people acting like it's ok if our elderly citizens all die off. I happen to have some elderly relatives (4 in fact) that I love very much and will be devastated if they die because someone was flippant about this virus.

Just because these people are nearing the end of their lives doesn't mean they're disposable.
Eric Forman
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I don't think it works that way. We have no natural immunity to this (unlike the flu) and this virus mutates. I think that means that the vaccine creators will need to be really good at creating vaccines each year to ID the most common strain of the virus... assuming its stable enough to treat for a given season. I'm sure I'll get corrected on this.
DVC2010
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wessimo said:



This video is making my face itch.
CDub06
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tysker said:

CDub06 said:

tysker said:

law-apt-3g said:

tysker said:

yukmonkey said:

Really wish people could focus on posting news and facts here. Sifting through 200 responses to find anything valuable is getting tougher and tougher.
Maybe there's just no relevant or valuable news to discuss. Do we need to post every conference or music festival that is being canceled? Until this reaches Texas, its not going to be super relevant for most of us.


It's in Texas
And all known cases (for now) are in quarantine... Unless that's changed.
Sure, sure... All "Known" cases. WE AINT BEEN TESTING ANYONE.

This thing is absolutely in Houston and Austin and Dallas. When true test results come back, that number is going to make a huge jump and people are going to freak out.
Or maybe people will realize its not a bad/deadly as we were initially told if we've already been exposed.
If you're of the belief its already here in the US in large numbers, we would we have seen effects by now, right? Maybe we already did with the recent uptick in flu cases during the 2019-2020 flu season and this strain wasn't tested for because the Drs didn't know to check. But that seems a bit conspiratorial.
I don't think it's going to ultimately land on a 3% fatality rate. Yes, healthy people probably have it without knowing it. That's going to help it spread to the more vulnerable people. But there are also probably people dealing with more serious effects of this virus without it being properly diagnosed.

I'm not saying you should freak out about it. But I am suggesting you heed the warnings even if you don't think it's in your neighborhood. Practice good hygiene above all.

And don't freak out when the US cases go from hundreds to a thousand over the course of a weekend. It's not because it's suddenly exploding. It'll be because we are finally able to test for this thing more widely.
HelloUncleNateFitch
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UncoverAg00 said:

I don't think it works that way. We have no natural immunity to this (unlike the flu) and this virus mutates. I think that means that the vaccine creators will need to be really good at creating vaccines each year to ID the most common strain of the virus... assuming its stable enough to treat for a given season. I'm sure I'll get corrected on this.


Many of us will catch it and 96 to 99% of people who catch it get over it and move on. Those people will then have some immunity that will lessen symptoms of it next time - assuming it becomes a common recurring virus (like the cold rhinovirus/coronavirus strains).
PJYoung
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techno-ag
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one MEEN Ag said:

techno-ag said:

one MEEN Ag said:

Tabasco said:

eric76 said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

KorbinDallas said:

claym711 said:

One thing is certain. If the outbreak is not controlled, a 1-2% death rate would be devastating. It's odd tha mostt ppl don't seem to grasp the potential for a disaster No one wants.
.

And what will raise that 1-2% to 3-4%(or higher) is if the cases come in faster than the healthcare system can deal with them. Commercial hospitals don't keep large numbers of empty beds, especially the ones needed for ICU and other serious patients. So if hospital trips increase by a large percentage it can cause major issues. Not to mention if Dr.s and nurses, first responders and other staff get quarantined Or sick themselves.
. Are you kidding? The number of cases in the USA is negligible. You have more of a chance of being hit by lightning. This whole hysteria is politicized bullsh*t
Something like 30 to 40 people die from lightning strikes in the US each year. The death toll in the US from coronavirus is already up to 11.
Totally unrelated to Corona Virus.

I am a Clinical Psychologist. I did a practicum at Warm Springs Rehabilitation Hospital in Warm Springs, GA (where FDR did his polio treatments). I had TWO separate patients within the year I was there that were both struck with lighting. Seriously... I met two people that were both struck by lighting and survived. Oddly, they both shared one similarity, an unquenchable thirst. They both independently said they were constantly thirsty.

That's all. Just always found that to be interesting.
Any regression analysis on the quantity of golf courses in a given area compared to the density of lightning strikes? Make sure you use SPSS and site your sources using APA.
Ooo a social science quant person. How you doin?
Married to one and helped with the stats classes when I could. During grad school I always joked that I took grad level stats once for my own degree, but every semester after for my wife's PhD. Anyone here shudder at the name of Bruce's stats classes? I learned more about stats just listening to second hand knowledge about him than any class I sat in.



Trump will fix it.
aggietony2010
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DVC2010 said:

JaneDoe02 said:

VaultingChemist said:

KorbinDallas said:

VaultingChemist said:

Mr.Infectious said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

This whole thing is laughable. How many people died of common flu this year? I'll bet my house it's more than ever dies from coronavirus in the USA.

Oh and I'd ridicule the cdc that dropped off infected people at a mall but last time I said CDC was politicized trash I was called an antivaxxer and banned by staff for being "aggressive" even tho I insulted no one and another poster called me garbage.



You know how I know you're new here........


Seriously, don't try to make this all about you and your feels.

Sack up, do some research and try to keep up with the rest of us.

It's a much bigger issue than just an infection at this point. Big changes coming to economy and society with this.
Be nice!

Especially to those who haven't been following this disease closely.

Normalcy bias is going to be very difficult to overcome for a lot of people.


You say to be nice, but you have to admit it's pretty rude to come to a thread with over 10,000 posts, and make the same tired argument that (I feel) has been soundly disproven dozens of times. I have no doubt we will continue to see this as things heat up. When people come in and don't bother to read anything about the virus other than what's of the msm it's frustrating to those who have taken the time to research and share huge amounts of excellent information like many in this thread.
Yes, it is rude. But after he posted that he didn't know there was a relationship between coronavirus and pneumonia, I felt like I was talking to a passenger on the Titanic who was laughing at the people boarding the life boats.

Most things aren't a matter of life and death. This one actually is.


I don't really care if anyone makes fun of me for getting on a life boat (stocking up on supplies and groceries).

I'm going to do what I think is best for my family.

I'm really tired of people acting like it's ok if our elderly citizens all die off. I happen to have some elderly relatives (4 in fact) that I love very much and will be devastated if they die because someone was flippant about this virus.

Just because these people are nearing the end of their lives doesn't mean they're disposable.



Working for a large life & retirement insurer, I don't want people to die either.

But if they do die, I hope it's our annuitants and not the ones with life policies. It's hard enough to make money with interest rates as low as they are.
VaultingChemist
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New study on how the virus spreads in a hospital room.
Full article

Quote:

Patient A's room was sampled on days 4 and 10 of illness while the patient was still symptomatic, after routine cleaning. All samples were negative. Patient B was symptomatic on day 8 and asymptomatic on day 11 of illness; samples taken on these 2 days after routine cleaning were negative (Table 1).
Patient C, whose samples were collected before routine cleaning, had positive results, with 13 (87%) of 15 room sites (including air outlet fans) and 3 (60%) of 5 toilet sites (toilet bowl, sink, and door handle) returning positive results (Table 2). Anteroom and corridor samples were negative. Patient C had upper respiratory tract involvement with no pneumonia and had 2 positive stool samples for SARS-CoV-2 on RT-PCR despite not having diarrhea.
Patient C had greater viral shedding, with a cycle threshold value of 25.69 in nasopharyngeal samples compared with 31.31 and 35.33 in patients A and B (Table 1).
Only 1 PPE swab, from the surface of a shoe front, was positive. All other PPE swabs were negative. All air samples were negative.

Quote:

There was extensive environmental contamination by 1 SARS-CoV-2 patient with mild upper respiratory tract involvement. Toilet bowl and sink samples were positive, suggesting that viral shedding in stool5 could be a potential route of transmission. Postcleaning samples were negative, suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient.

Air samples were negative despite the extent of environmental contamination. Swabs taken from the air exhaust outlets tested positive, suggesting that small virus-laden droplets may be displaced by airflows and deposited on equipment such as vents. The positive PPE sample was unsurprising because shoe covers are not part of PPE recommendations. The risk of transmission from contaminated footwear is likely low, as evidenced by negative results in the anteroom and clean corridor.
cone
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cisgenderedAggie
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cone said:




That's exactly the scene that crossed my mind a couple of days ago when someone made a post about people needing to go spend money at their local restaurants because him and his son were the only ones at an Asian restaurant.
Eric Forman
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UncleNateFitch said:

UncoverAg00 said:

I don't think it works that way. We have no natural immunity to this (unlike the flu) and this virus mutates. I think that means that the vaccine creators will need to be really good at creating vaccines each year to ID the most common strain of the virus... assuming its stable enough to treat for a given season. I'm sure I'll get corrected on this.


Many of us will catch it and 96 to 99% of people who catch it get over it and move on. Those people will then have some immunity that will lessen symptoms of it next time - assuming it becomes a common recurring virus (like the cold rhinovirus/coronavirus strains).


Again, I don't think that's how it works. It's the reason why some people get the flu vaccine each year... the mutation of the flu virus makes previous immunizations ineffective. Regarding natural immunity (the immediate response), that can never be boosted -- your kids may end up with it... I think. As for the severity, you may very be right that most people won't have a serious reaction to the virus, but the significant increase in severity will have a significant impact on the hospital systems. That could be a real problem. So I still don't think this is something to snub one's nose at.
Tex100
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I
Stolen From Another Aggie Site

MPORTANT READ : Corona Virus Precautions

James Robb is a Coronavirus expert. Google him. And then heed his advice.
Date: February 26, 2020 at 2:35:50 PM EST
Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.
Dear Colleagues, as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.

The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!
What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.

Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.

I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us! Jim
James Robb, MD FCAP
TexAgs91
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UncoverAg00 said:

I hate to beat a dead horse (too late)... but taking a look at how many people the dude in New York infected, how can the story be that this is less contagious than the flu? I've had the flu, one of my kids has had the flu and in both cases not everyone in the house got the flu. It's pretty obvious that this thing is wicked contagious... even more so than the flu. So I'm just not yet buying that this thing is conclusively less contagious than the flu like the WHO claimed. Do you think we can expect another shift in narrative by the WHO saying "OK... you know when we said that this thing isn't as contagious as the flu. Yeah, it's way more contagious after all."

Link? I haven't seen or heard of that story
cone
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a not insignificant portion of that 96% will get severe pneumonia, require hospitalization and O2 support

so yeah, they'll get over it... after 6 weeks of care and severe illness

THE PROBLEM WITH THIS GERM IS NOT THAT IT KILLS TOO MANY PEOPLE IN IDEAL CONDITIONS ITS THAT IT OVERWHELMS THE HEALTHCARE INFRASTRUCTURE LEADING TO MANY DEATHS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED HAD THE HOSPITALS NOT BEEN OVERRUN
samurai_science
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Aust Ag said:

AeroAg2003 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Tanya 93 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Muy said:

Major business conferences are being shut down. Shop.org in Vegas, a large retail/e-commerce show has been **** down later this month.

Business travel in our company of 50k employees has been **** down unless the travel is critical.

Many customers are requesting no onsite meetings from any vendors for now.
Not SXSW in austin though...the show must go on. Yesterday they said cancelling the event will not make the residents any safer...baffling.
would it even be possible to reschedule something this big for the summer in Austin? And would people want to come then/
IMO rescheduling should be of little concern right now. We have no cases (yet) in Austin and keeping it that way should be the goal. Having a thousands of people come from all over the country and world to stand tightly packed in bars, etc. does not seem like a sound idea right now. Not only can that spread it locally, but people will fly home to wherever and possibly spread it there as well.
Little do most know, Austin held one of the world's largest aircraft trading and financing conferences this past Sunday through Wednesday. The virus is either going to spread and we are going to get past it (with many infected) or we are going to have to completely shut down nearly all commerce.

I'm for the get through it path (with a strong focus on hygiene). I'm not sure you can really stop it without completely tanking the economy for a very long time.
I agree, the show should go on. I went to The Oasis a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed there was a lot of tourists there (like usual), many from other countries. I think people will still come visit Austin from outpost unknown, whether SXSW happens or not. Also, there is ALOT of pressure being put on by the hospitality industry here locally for this event to happen. This and ACL is their Super Bowl, and they stand to lose millions.

Time will tell what was the right call.
Knowing people will visit Austin anyway has nothing to do with having 80,000 people fly/drive into Austin that would NOT NORMALLY DO SO.

Your logic is faulty.

It is stupid, cancel it.
cone
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AG
this is good/better news
cisgenderedAggie
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cone said:

this is good/better news


Good news indeed. A quick look on Amazon suggests that MPR1500/MERV13 + house filters aren't overbought. Guess I'm heading to Home Depot again for lunch.
Eric Forman
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AG
TexAgs91 said:

UncoverAg00 said:

I hate to beat a dead horse (too late)... but taking a look at how many people the dude in New York infected, how can the story be that this is less contagious than the flu? I've had the flu, one of my kids has had the flu and in both cases not everyone in the house got the flu. It's pretty obvious that this thing is wicked contagious... even more so than the flu. So I'm just not yet buying that this thing is conclusively less contagious than the flu like the WHO claimed. Do you think we can expect another shift in narrative by the WHO saying "OK... you know when we said that this thing isn't as contagious as the flu. Yeah, it's way more contagious after all."

Link? I haven't seen or heard of that story


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1234871709091667969&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Ftexags.com%2Fforums%2F16%2Ftopics%2F3090341%2F283
Marcus Aurelius
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AG
On call today. As an example - our hospital is 400 beds. 50 of which are ICU. The ICUs are full. A lot of Flu A etc. If COVID-19 explodes - where are the sick/vent pts going to go? I suspect this is similar to most hospitals in the country. It could completely overwhelm our hospitals.
KidDoc
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AG
CDub06 said:

tysker said:

CDub06 said:

tysker said:

law-apt-3g said:

tysker said:

yukmonkey said:

Really wish people could focus on posting news and facts here. Sifting through 200 responses to find anything valuable is getting tougher and tougher.
Maybe there's just no relevant or valuable news to discuss. Do we need to post every conference or music festival that is being canceled? Until this reaches Texas, its not going to be super relevant for most of us.


It's in Texas
And all known cases (for now) are in quarantine... Unless that's changed.
Sure, sure... All "Known" cases. WE AINT BEEN TESTING ANYONE.

This thing is absolutely in Houston and Austin and Dallas. When true test results come back, that number is going to make a huge jump and people are going to freak out.
Or maybe people will realize its not a bad/deadly as we were initially told if we've already been exposed.
If you're of the belief its already here in the US in large numbers, we would we have seen effects by now, right? Maybe we already did with the recent uptick in flu cases during the 2019-2020 flu season and this strain wasn't tested for because the Drs didn't know to check. But that seems a bit conspiratorial.
I don't think it's going to ultimately land on a 3% fatality rate. Yes, healthy people probably have it without knowing it. That's going to help it spread to the more vulnerable people. But there are also probably people dealing with more serious effects of this virus without it being properly diagnosed.

I'm not saying you should freak out about it. But I am suggesting you heed the warnings even if you don't think it's in your neighborhood. Practice good hygiene above all.

And don't freak out when the US cases go from hundreds to a thousand over the course of a weekend. It's not because it's suddenly exploding. It'll be because we are finally able to test for this thing more widely.
Yes this is correct. As we actually start testing we should see an explosion of cases over the next 7 days.

Regarding the mutations and vaccine mentioned above- there are parts of viruses that do not tend to mutate because those mutations need to non viable progeny. The vaccine developers simply need to target a part of the virus that does not mutate. There is a flu vaccine in Phase 3 trials that targets a part that doesn't mutate so it will not need to be changed yearly. The flu vaccine is really one of the worst vaccines ever invented as far as efficacy.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Eric Forman
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AG
That new vaccine for flu you refer to... I read something about DNA vaccines, is that what you're talking about or is it something different?
BBRex
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daggertx said:

Aust Ag said:

AeroAg2003 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Tanya 93 said:

JesusQuintana said:

Muy said:

Major business conferences are being shut down. Shop.org in Vegas, a large retail/e-commerce show has been **** down later this month.

Business travel in our company of 50k employees has been **** down unless the travel is critical.

Many customers are requesting no onsite meetings from any vendors for now.
Not SXSW in austin though...the show must go on. Yesterday they said cancelling the event will not make the residents any safer...baffling.
would it even be possible to reschedule something this big for the summer in Austin? And would people want to come then/
IMO rescheduling should be of little concern right now. We have no cases (yet) in Austin and keeping it that way should be the goal. Having a thousands of people come from all over the country and world to stand tightly packed in bars, etc. does not seem like a sound idea right now. Not only can that spread it locally, but people will fly home to wherever and possibly spread it there as well.
Little do most know, Austin held one of the world's largest aircraft trading and financing conferences this past Sunday through Wednesday. The virus is either going to spread and we are going to get past it (with many infected) or we are going to have to completely shut down nearly all commerce.

I'm for the get through it path (with a strong focus on hygiene). I'm not sure you can really stop it without completely tanking the economy for a very long time.
I agree, the show should go on. I went to The Oasis a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed there was a lot of tourists there (like usual), many from other countries. I think people will still come visit Austin from outpost unknown, whether SXSW happens or not. Also, there is ALOT of pressure being put on by the hospitality industry here locally for this event to happen. This and ACL is their Super Bowl, and they stand to lose millions.

Time will tell what was the right call.
Knowing people will visit Austin anyway has nothing to do with having 80,000 people fly/drive into Austin that would NOT NORMALLY DO SO.

Your logic is faulty.

It is stupid, cancel it.
Also, wouldn't the organizers and businesses involved be concerned about liability if their employees get sick working the event?
PJYoung
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AG
TexAgs91 said:

UncoverAg00 said:

I hate to beat a dead horse (too late)... but taking a look at how many people the dude in New York infected, how can the story be that this is less contagious than the flu? I've had the flu, one of my kids has had the flu and in both cases not everyone in the house got the flu. It's pretty obvious that this thing is wicked contagious... even more so than the flu. So I'm just not yet buying that this thing is conclusively less contagious than the flu like the WHO claimed. Do you think we can expect another shift in narrative by the WHO saying "OK... you know when we said that this thing isn't as contagious as the flu. Yeah, it's way more contagious after all."

Link? I haven't seen or heard of that story
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO

Mar 3
"However, there are some important differences.

First, #COVID19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19"-
@DrTedros
#coronavirus
cisgenderedAggie
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KidDoc said:

CDub06 said:

tysker said:

CDub06 said:

tysker said:

law-apt-3g said:

tysker said:

yukmonkey said:

Really wish people could focus on posting news and facts here. Sifting through 200 responses to find anything valuable is getting tougher and tougher.
Maybe there's just no relevant or valuable news to discuss. Do we need to post every conference or music festival that is being canceled? Until this reaches Texas, its not going to be super relevant for most of us.


It's in Texas
And all known cases (for now) are in quarantine... Unless that's changed.
Sure, sure... All "Known" cases. WE AINT BEEN TESTING ANYONE.

This thing is absolutely in Houston and Austin and Dallas. When true test results come back, that number is going to make a huge jump and people are going to freak out.
Or maybe people will realize its not a bad/deadly as we were initially told if we've already been exposed.
If you're of the belief its already here in the US in large numbers, we would we have seen effects by now, right? Maybe we already did with the recent uptick in flu cases during the 2019-2020 flu season and this strain wasn't tested for because the Drs didn't know to check. But that seems a bit conspiratorial.
I don't think it's going to ultimately land on a 3% fatality rate. Yes, healthy people probably have it without knowing it. That's going to help it spread to the more vulnerable people. But there are also probably people dealing with more serious effects of this virus without it being properly diagnosed.

I'm not saying you should freak out about it. But I am suggesting you heed the warnings even if you don't think it's in your neighborhood. Practice good hygiene above all.

And don't freak out when the US cases go from hundreds to a thousand over the course of a weekend. It's not because it's suddenly exploding. It'll be because we are finally able to test for this thing more widely.
Yes this is correct. As we actually start testing we should see an explosion of cases over the next 7 days.

Regarding the mutations and vaccine mentioned above- there are parts of viruses that do not tend to mutate because those mutations need to non viable progeny. The vaccine developers simply need to target a part of the virus that does not mutate. There is a flu vaccine in Phase 3 trials that targets a part that doesn't mutate so it will not need to be changed yearly. The flu vaccine is really one of the worst vaccines ever invented as far as efficacy.




I hope people get this. The whole "it mutated" thing reminds me of Dustin Hoffman drama from Outbreak. Mutations in something that replicated as frequently in a virus is normal, it doesn't mean it's going to cause some terrible change every time. The paper being cited describes one such event that may have correlation to higher pattern of infection, but even the authors stated that the protein sequences in the parts believed to be associated with transmission and replication weren't divergent.

They literally just found a way to discriminate between two possible strains. The flip side is that the exact same analysis is how you know whether something came from Italy or Iran. Mutations are how the genetic tracing works.
rcb
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AG
Fort Bend Ag here in Sienna Plantation.

** WARNING - From our neighborhood FB page (so take with a big grain of salt)...Read that the man infected out here is part of the 36 person tour group recently back from Egypt. 10 of the group are from Houston area: 6 in Sugar Land, 2 in Woodlands, 2 in Memorial area. Others from group returned to New York, California, Taiwan and Canada. Others in Houston 10 group have tests pending. ** END WARNING

Have there been many cases in Egypt though?
Phat32
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AG
Not reported but there are theories that they have massive issues there.
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