China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,236,250 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
UTExan
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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/04/italys-death-toll-from-the-coronavirus-is-now-worse-than-iran.html

Italy closing schools and universities until March 15.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
AgFan2015
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Jan 20, 2020 - 339 confirmed cases all in China.

43 days ago.

Tamu_mgm
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AG
Have we placed bets yet on when the first poster on this thread to actually have COVID-19 will be?
Lonestar_Ag09
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If there is any justice it would be Mr. Infectious right....
Stupid@17
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It is possible some already have a minor version and think it is allergies. Look at Spain, first death 2 weeks before they said they had their first case.
tysker
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Rapier108 said:

tysker said:

Interestingly the worst cases in the US are localized in a nursing home where the infected didnt appear to attend any public gatherings or have unnecessary intermingling.
Except all it takes is a few idiots to go out when sick.

The person in New Hampshire, who intentionally broke quarantine, and the lawyer in NYC are just two examples.

The NH individual infected at least one person, and exposed an many more at some event. The NYC lawyer has infected 5 others (his family and neighbor) but exposed who knows how many others. His son attended college classes while sick.
Well yes of course but the greater concern are the people that are infected who aren't "sick."
tysker
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Mr.Infectious said:



Jan 20, 2020 - 339 confirmed cases all in China.

43 days ago.


If my math is right, we'll have >45million cases worldwide in the next 43 days assuming the infection rate stays the same.
Its Not Rocket Surgery
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Here's a nice BBC Reel video on proper hand washing for all of you newly minted hypochondriacs and those recently introduced to the idea of scrubbing after taking a wee.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p084zgcf/why-you-re-washing-your-hands-wrong
cone
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of course, we still have weeks to let the SoKo situation play out before we can really estimate IFR

but the numbers so far look much better for those <70 years old

this cohort is too young, though. doesn't match the SoKo demographics at all. so IFR higher based on all those currently infected that will die not dead yet and a younger group of infected.

BUT 1 in 20 70+ dead is much than the between 8 and 15% CFR that came out of Wuhan

we'll see how this turns out

still not a lot of updates regarding the cruise passengers and if the serious/severe cases are recovering
lead
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tysker said:


If my math is right, we'll have >45million cases worldwide in the next 43 days assuming the infection rate stays the same.

What is the infection rate you are calculating?
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Tanya 93
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Well, we can't quarantine until after the 19th.

Dairy Queen is giving away free soft serve cones
BQ78
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Ha, the CDC says you don't have to wash if you don't pee on your hands.
AgFan2015
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Ain't no virus getting me in the deep underground bunker.....
AgFan2015
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Since when did Moises Alou start working at the CDC?
TexasAggie_02
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Its Not Rocket Surgery said:

Here's a nice BBC Reel video on proper hand washing for all of you newly minted hypochondriacs and those recently introduced to the idea of scrubbing after taking a wee.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p084zgcf/why-you-re-washing-your-hands-wrong
i'm fairly confident that 90% of the men in my building didn't wash their hands. The trash in the bathroom was never full. this past week, the trash has been full of wet paper towels by lunch each day.
SVaggie84
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"still not a lot of updates regarding the cruise passengers and if the serious/severe cases are recovering"

My friend's whose brother and sister-in-law got corona virus from the Japanese cruise ship are doing well, even the more severe woman who needed HIV drugs. They are waiting for 2 negative tests (5 days apart) before they can be released.

They are hoping to fly back to the States next week.
eric76
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WHO is reporting that the mortality rate is 3.4%.
tysker
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Very rough back of the envelope calcs but approx 1.155. 339^1.155 for 43 days gets you to about 93k. The next 43 days gets you to to over 45MM. Probably doing it wrong but a fun exercise
cone
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https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

Quote:

This still largely comes down to hygiene and isolation. But in particular, we need to focus on the right people and the right places. Nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes. We need to up the hygienic and isolation ante primarily around the subset of people who can't simply contract SARS-CoV-2 and ride it out the way healthy people should be able to.

Yes, this disease is real. And, yes, there truly do appear to be vulnerable patients among us, those far more likely to develop critical illness from it. And that relatively small subset, if infected in high numbers, could add up to a tragically high number of fatalities if we fail to adequately protect them.

The good news is that we have huge advantages to leverage: We already know all of this and have learned it remarkably quickly. We know how this virus spreads. We know how long people are contagious. We know who the most vulnerable patients are likely to be, and where they are.
the big thing this article neglects is the proportion of younger healthy people at time zero (with bed capacity) that will still need some form of O2 support

so it's unreasonable to just focus on hospitals and nursing homes, because we need to keep open beds for the older cohort when and if it gets into where they live and work

they're still going to close schools and large gatherings where outbreaks occur just to keep the HC infrastructure from collapsing
lunchbox
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NYC confirmed cases up to 11.

lead
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eric76 said:

WHO is reporting that the mortality rate is 3.4%.
link?
IrishTxAggie
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lunchbox said:

NYC confirmed cases up to 11.


Cuomo is slow. This was out hours ago
lunchbox
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lead said:

eric76 said:

WHO is reporting that the mortality rate is 3.4%.
link?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
cone
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that's fantastic

that woman's trial, while terrifying, will undoubtedly save lives
Rapier108
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IrishTxAggie said:

lunchbox said:

NYC confirmed cases up to 11.


Cuomo is slow. This was out hours ago
Two different sets of cases. The earlier ones were the lawyer's family and neighbor.

The 5 new ones are one of the lawyer's friends and his entire family.

Because of the lawyer, they're also putting 1,000 people into quarantine as either he or his family (mostly his son who went to classes at his university while sick) may have exposed them.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
IrishTxAggie
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Ah. Thanks for the further explanation. Cuomo is still slow though...
eric76
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TexasAggie_02 said:

Its Not Rocket Surgery said:

Here's a nice BBC Reel video on proper hand washing for all of you newly minted hypochondriacs and those recently introduced to the idea of scrubbing after taking a wee.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p084zgcf/why-you-re-washing-your-hands-wrong
i'm fairly confident that 90% of the men in my building didn't wash their hands. The trash in the bathroom was never full. this past week, the trash has been full of wet paper towels by lunch each day.

I always wash my hands unless there is no place to wash them. (When taking a link on a fence post, there is often no place to wash your hands.) What I hate is washing my hands and then having to open the door to leave with clean hands. It makes me want to wash them again. If they have paper towels, I use the paper towel for the door handle and then toss the paper towel in the trash after the door is open.
Rapier108
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Another death reported, this one in California. Not a new case, one that was already known.

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/grand-princess-cruise-cancels-call-to-mexico-will-return-to-san-francisco-after-cdc-says-it-is-investigating-small-cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-ship/
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
30wedge
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Mr.Infectious said:

Ain't no virus getting me in the deep underground bunker.....
Hell me either. I've never left my y2k bunker, only peek out now and again. And to think they call me crazy when I built it.
cisgenderedAggie
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tysker said:

Very rough back of the envelope calcs but approx 1.155. 339^1.155 for 43 days gets you to about 93k. The next 43 days gets you to to over 45MM. Probably doing it wrong but a fun exercise


Plotting some points from that site, I'm getting logarithmic relationship. Excel (I know) calls it y = 2.604ln(x) + 2.5532
BadMoonRisin
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Its Not Rocket Surgery said:

Here's a nice BBC Reel video on proper hand washing for all of you newly minted hypochondriacs and those recently introduced to the idea of scrubbing after taking a wee.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p084zgcf/why-you-re-washing-your-hands-wrong
I like this one better.

CDub06
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People are going to freak out when that number suddenly jumps to 1000 US cases. The bump we're about to see won't be a signal that it's started spreading exponentially. This thing has been spreading - we're just now able to test more widely. I'm certain we've already got it in Houston even though there's not a "confirmed" case.
LeisureSuitLarry
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TexasAggie_02 said:

Its Not Rocket Surgery said:

Here's a nice BBC Reel video on proper hand washing for all of you newly minted hypochondriacs and those recently introduced to the idea of scrubbing after taking a wee.

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p084zgcf/why-you-re-washing-your-hands-wrong
i'm fairly confident that 90% of the men in my building didn't wash their hands. The trash in the bathroom was never full. this past week, the trash has been full of wet paper towels by lunch each day.

Most men do not wash their hands after using the bathroom. I saw a study several years ago that confirmed this.
Since then I have observed this to be a fact.
BQ78
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A 12th Man donor and a janitor, who would have guessed?
lunchbox
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