k2aggie07 said:

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It's weird everyone has this desire to draw an equivalence to the flu. I don't think there's evidence favoring that.

CDC says about half the people who have the flu go see a doctor, so the flu estimates for mortality are guessing that we only see half the cases.

But what's key, at least in my mind, is not the total number of cases and deaths. What's important, I think, is the comparison of the cases we see. In other words, if you're right that requires the range of outcomes to be much broader than the flu on both sides.

Hypothetically let's say SARS-CoV-2 has more mild cases than seasonal flu, and only 1% of people who get it go see the doc. That's what we "see" so the observed guesstimate of 1% mortality is really only 0.01%, same as the flu. Is that really better if the 1% that is going to see the doc are 20% severe, 5% requiring ICU? The flu doesn't have those numbers even considering the portion that we see.

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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It can definitely be pushed. What concerns me is that the CEO of a company generally knows how the sprockets are made and the risks of rushing sprocket production. Is Trump apprised of the risks associated with rushing a vaccine? Does he know why they typically go through 3 stages of testing before they are administered to the public? Has he taken the time to consider these risks when pushing for development to occur faster than normal? I sure hope so. He is known and beloved (by some) for his kneejerk, of the cuff, "get it done" style, which is fine for building golf courses or sprockets, but it is a slightly different ball of wax when it comes to drugs I think.

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k2aggie07 said:

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Gimme a break. I guarantee you if you sat those guys down in a room and said - unlimited budget, fast-track on any regulator requirements, a big pair of shiny scissors to cut red tape - can you shorten the duration?

If they don't say yes they're the wrong person to be in charge.

A day, a week, a month. Every project has slack. Crash it, run multiple things in parallel, get started on items that aren't on the critical path just in case, add resources.

Y'all are acting like this is the Manhattan project or something.

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OverSeas AG said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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It can definitely be pushed. What concerns me is that the CEO of a company generally knows how the sprockets are made and the risks of rushing sprocket production. Is Trump apprised of the risks associated with rushing a vaccine? Does he know why they typically go through 3 stages of testing before they are administered to the public? Has he taken the time to consider these risks when pushing for development to occur faster than normal? I sure hope so. He is known and beloved for his kneejerk, of the cuff, "get it done" style, which is fine for building golf courses or sprockets, but it is a slightly different ball of wax when it comes to drugs I think.

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Have we seen him actually ignore the risks and order something into production here?

He COULD do that, but we do not know that he WILL do that. People like to speculate on him all the time... but so far we have not had war with China, North Korea, and are extracting ourselves out of other places (See agreement with Taliban this past Saturday.) He may bluster a lot, but if you watch him, the bluster is part of his negotiation technique, it does not seem to be the action that he takes.

Maybe I will be wrong about this and he creates a zombie vaccine that kills us all, but I sure doubt it.

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Gimme a break. I guarantee you if you sat those guys down in a room and said - unlimited budget, fast-track on any regulator requirements, a big pair of shiny scissors to cut red tape - can you shorten the duration?

If they don't say yes they're the wrong person to be in charge.

A day, a week, a month. Every project has slack. Crash it, run multiple things in parallel, get started on items that aren't on the critical path just in case, add resources.

Y'all are acting like this is the Manhattan project or something.

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I agree with you, but there are probably good reasons why things take time when it comes to drug development. If he's going order the deployment of a vaccine to millions of Americans shouldn't he be aware of the risks involved in rushing production of it? We just saw what happens when you try to rush the development of a test in the CDC...

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Tanya 93 said:

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OverSeas AG said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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in fact, i bet most people on this board have worked for a CEO that constantly pushed project deadlines forward.

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How many of them are projects involving human subjects?


Would you let your child be a first to get the vaccine in June?

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I get that... but there is nothing wrong with asking the questions, looking to see if there are better faster ways to do things. That doesn't mean you do them or you ignore the risks. But asking the questions SOMETIMES leads to new way of doing things, and sometimes it does not.

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And asking the question over and over again when being repeatedly told the same thing doesn't change the time line.

He does seem quite clueless on how this magically can't be produced in a matter of weeks.

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Ol_Ag_02 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Gimme a break. I guarantee you if you sat those guys down in a room and said - unlimited budget, fast-track on any regulator requirements, a big pair of shiny scissors to cut red tape - can you shorten the duration?

If they don't say yes they're the wrong person to be in charge.

A day, a week, a month. Every project has slack. Crash it, run multiple things in parallel, get started on items that aren't on the critical path just in case, add resources.

Y'all are acting like this is the Manhattan project or something.

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I agree with you, but there are probably good reasons why things take time when it comes to drug development. If he's going order the deployment of a vaccine to millions of Americans shouldn't he be aware of the risks involved in rushing production of it? We just saw what happens when you try to rush the development of a test in the CDC...

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So now he's going to order an unproven vaccine to millions of Americans?

You TDS people are certifiable.

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deddog said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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It can definitely be pushed. What concerns me is that the CEO of a company generally knows how the sprockets are made and the risks of rushing sprocket production.

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So now Trump is CEO of the pharmaceutical companies? He's supposed to know the inner workings of how the phameceutical industry work?

Give it a rest
If Trump didn't push, you guys would whine that he didn't push them at all.
There's no winning with whiners.

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Mr.Infectious said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Sorry, "order the deployment" sounds worse than what I meant. How about "change protocol to fast track", in other words cut corners. Taking some sort of executive action to speed up the development in a way that goes around the usual trial process.

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Ol_Ag_02 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Gimme a break. I guarantee you if you sat those guys down in a room and said - unlimited budget, fast-track on any regulator requirements, a big pair of shiny scissors to cut red tape - can you shorten the duration?

If they don't say yes they're the wrong person to be in charge.

A day, a week, a month. Every project has slack. Crash it, run multiple things in parallel, get started on items that aren't on the critical path just in case, add resources.

Y'all are acting like this is the Manhattan project or something.

---

I agree with you, but there are probably good reasons why things take time when it comes to drug development. If he's going order the deployment of a vaccine to millions of Americans shouldn't he be aware of the risks involved in rushing production of it? We just saw what happens when you try to rush the development of a test in the CDC...

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So now he's going to order an unproven vaccine to millions of Americans?

You TDS people are certifiable.

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Sorry, "order the deployment" sounds worse than what I meant. How about "change protocol to fast track", in other words cut corners. Taking some sort of executive action to speed up the development in a way that goes around the usual trial process.

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flown-the-coop said:

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Understanding that the flu and coronavirus are from different lineages does not on the surface negate an idea that one drug such as an existing flu vaccine may be effective on both. But Shanked Punt knows all.

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Bend over. MMT is coming soon..... who do you want to take it from, Red team or blue team?

No way can he veto an emergency healthcare bailout once this goes into pandemic panic mode.

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k2aggie07 said:

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A day, a week, a month. Every project has slack. Crash it, run multiple things in parallel, get started on items that aren't on the critical path just in case, add resources.

Y'all are acting like this is the Manhattan project or something.

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JB!98 said:

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Is there a TexAgs thread on Ebola, Zika, H1N1, etc., that I can compare this one to? Were we all going to die back then?

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PJYoung said:

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Iran

Quote:

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"Frankly, the unwillingness of the Islamic Republic of Iran to restrict large-scale visits to these shrines is criminal in the case of this illness," said Amir A. Afkhami, a medical doctor and historian at George Washington University who has studied the Iranian response to previous epidemics.

"The government is putting religious prestige and public image ahead of public safety," he said of the leadership's overall response. "It is unprecedented even in the annals of the Islamic Republic."

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Shanked Punt said:

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Yeah, asking if they can just use a "solid flu vaccine" clearly demonstrates he has a solid handle on the science in this matter.

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Tanya 93 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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in fact, i bet most people on this board have worked for a CEO that constantly pushed project deadlines forward.

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How many of them are projects involving human subjects?


Would you let your child be a first to get the vaccine in June?

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