People going to start bischin about toilet paper 1st. Cause after the lemmings clear bleach from shelves, TP is next.

Adding my reasons for optimism (i was much more concerned 2 weeks ago).

1. The fatality rate seems to be well under 1%. The best evidence for this is Korea (high testing, lots of cases, low deaths)

2. This thing may well die way down with the end of winter (there has been a decided lack of community transmission in several places that had a tremendous amount of travel to and from china before and during the major hubei outbreak - among them Australia, Phillipines, Vietnam, and Thailand (all warm right now)). Put another way, community transmission only seems to be active in places that are cold or at least chilly, but not warm or hot. Singapore had a lot of travel cases initially and some local transmission, but even that died out.

Who should be very concerned?.....if i had to make a guess, i think that the changing seasons will make places like Sydney, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, and Santiago the epicenter of the virus in the next few months. How they deal with it will inform how the northern hemisphere tackles it come october/november.

Wash you hands. Go to work. Play outside. Buy an index fund.

Heads up for people traveling to Italy (I'm on the list via honeymoon).

Delta and American to suspend flights to Milan starting tomorrow. Delta was May 1 and AA was April 24 I believe.

I've been saying for a while - highly recommend following Dr. Scott Gottlieb. Trumps FDA commissioner 2017-2019. He's on top of this and still has the admin's ear. Great news here

But with more testing, the numbers will go way up. I like his approach and this would be better than what the admin has done by saying there's only one death and only 60 + cases.
You can see the news reader's expression (freak out!) when he quite calmly says there will be thousands of cases. But that's in a country of 340 million. He stresses vaccines will take a while so keep working on treatments now until vaccines get here. Dr. Gottlieb is a very calm, credible and confident resource.

Diyala Nick said:

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Adding my reasons for optimism (i was much more concerned 2 weeks ago).

1. The fatality rate seems to be well under 1%. The best evidence for this is Korea (high testing, lots of cases, low deaths)

2. This thing may well die way down with the end of winter (there has been a decided lack of community transmission in several places that had a tremendous amount of travel to and from china before and during the major hubei outbreak - among them Australia, Phillipines, Vietnam, and Thailand (all warm right now)). Put another way, community transmission only seems to be active in places that are cold or at least chilly, but not warm or hot. Singapore had a lot of travel cases initially and some local transmission, but even that died out.

Who should be very concerned?.....if i had to make a guess, i think that the changing seasons will make places like Sydney, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, and Santiago the epicenter of the virus in the next few months. How they deal with it will inform how the northern hemisphere tackles it come october/november.

Wash you hands. Go to work. Play outside. Buy an index fund.

---

This sort of rationale thought and level head is not appreciated on this thread.

Excellent comments.

Most of Europe, however, at risk. At least 2 months of cold / cool wet weather.

Moreover, Europe was WAY late restricting travel to China. They still travel to Iran. Woke, you know.

LaQuica said:

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Diyala Nick said:

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Adding my reasons for optimism (i was much more concerned 2 weeks ago).

1. The fatality rate seems to be well under 1%. The best evidence for this is Korea (high testing, lots of cases, low deaths)

2. This thing may well die way down with the end of winter (there has been a decided lack of community transmission in several places that had a tremendous amount of travel to and from china before and during the major hubei outbreak - among them Australia, Phillipines, Vietnam, and Thailand (all warm right now)). Put another way, community transmission only seems to be active in places that are cold or at least chilly, but not warm or hot. Singapore had a lot of travel cases initially and some local transmission, but even that died out.

Who should be very concerned?.....if i had to make a guess, i think that the changing seasons will make places like Sydney, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, and Santiago the epicenter of the virus in the next few months. How they deal with it will inform how the northern hemisphere tackles it come october/november.

Wash you hands. Go to work. Play outside. Buy an index fund.

---

This sort of rationale thought and level head is not appreciated on this thread.

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But predicting nuclear meltdowns is so much more fun and exciting.

Calls for March Madness to be played without fans in attendance.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/02/group-tells-ncaa-to-take-precautions-during-march-madness-hold-tournament-without-fans.html

Also, good comments and recommendations.

I'm more worried about the morons than the virus. I still stocked up about 4 weeks ago. I saw the idiots at Kroger during I think it was Rita. I saw how society collapsed in NO during Katrina when Uncle Sam's titty disappeared.

If nothing happens, we will eat what we can and donate the rest.

Rock1982 said:

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Excellent comments.

Most of Europe, however, at risk. At least 2 months of cold / cool wet weather.

Moreover, Europe was WAY late restricting travel to China. They still travel to Iran. Woke, you know.

---

The scandinavian countries are probably especially at risk. Hopefully either Remdesevir or monoclonal antibodies (or both) can relieve the burden on hospitalization and ICU.

There is still reason for concern, but I think the panic has turned irrational at this point.

I don't think the panic has even started. Next two weeks as they start testing more people and the media is reporting thousands of cases. Under control or not, that's when the hysteria goes through the roof.

Diyala Nick said:

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Rock1982 said:

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Excellent comments.

Most of Europe, however, at risk. At least 2 months of cold / cool wet weather.

Moreover, Europe was WAY late restricting travel to China. They still travel to Iran. Woke, you know.

---

The scandinavian countries are probably especially at risk. Hopefully either Remdesevir or monoclonal antibodies (or both) can relieve the burden on hospitalization and ICU.

There is still reason for concern, but I think the panic has turned irrational at this point.

---

I'm in Europe with the military now. Not seeing any panic here, but we are definitely watching the numbers. Including in the vicinity of US forces. One area of concern is the routine travel between northern Italy and Germany. We've had many in Italy recently, so you can imagine the "attention".

We are basically where INDOPACOM was a month ago.

I'm in AZ, and I saw photos folks are posting on the local FB group of the lines at Costco. I'll avoid that place for the time being.

This reminds me of when Harvey hit. I flew into Austin to visit my boys, and most of the gas stations were out of petrol, and the few that weren't had lines down the street. It was all induced by panic.

Ignorance coupled with the media frenzy will definitely crank the hysteria up in the coming weeks. We are a society of extremes... militant morons. Getting info and planning intelligently... aint nobody got time for dat!

LaQuica said:

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Diyala Nick said:

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Adding my reasons for optimism (i was much more concerned 2 weeks ago).

1. The fatality rate seems to be well under 1%. The best evidence for this is Korea (high testing, lots of cases, low deaths)

2. This thing may well die way down with the end of winter (there has been a decided lack of community transmission in several places that had a tremendous amount of travel to and from china before and during the major hubei outbreak - among them Australia, Phillipines, Vietnam, and Thailand (all warm right now)). Put another way, community transmission only seems to be active in places that are cold or at least chilly, but not warm or hot. Singapore had a lot of travel cases initially and some local transmission, but even that died out.

Who should be very concerned?.....if i had to make a guess, i think that the changing seasons will make places like Sydney, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, and Santiago the epicenter of the virus in the next few months. How they deal with it will inform how the northern hemisphere tackles it come october/november.

Wash you hands. Go to work. Play outside. Buy an index fund.

---

This sort of rationale thought and level head is not appreciated on this thread.

---

For real. People have been saying this same message for a couple weeks now, but some really want this thing to be bigger than it really is.

Still no testing for COVID19 happening in Houston. Local labs are supposed to be getting the fixed test kits "soon."

wessimo said:

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Per CDC, "This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Not a very credible statement since they were claiming only yesterday that the virus was "NOT Spreading" in the community and that has proven to be massively incorrect.

CDC's performance so far has been on par with FEMA during Katrina. Just goes to show you can't count on the government when it counts.

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I agree. I think their initial response to this has been laughably poor. I think they are biding time with platitudes right now while they are furiously making up for lost time behind the scenes on these kits in hopes they can make up for it later. And hope folks forget about the initial response.

I also hope we can all laugh at me later and make fun of me because I was way, way wrong.

JJMt said:

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Horrific numbers for South Korea and Italy. I notice that Spain, France, Germany, and possibly the UK are also starting to go exponential. I guess that's not too surprising given their proximity to Italy.

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" horrific numbers in South Korea".... wonder if North Korea is going to have the last laugh in all this? I mean, I got to imagine that nobody's going into that country, right? Or out of course.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Has the paranoia hit Facebook or neighborhood message boards yet. That is when I will start worrying about mom's panic buying in earnest.

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This is exactly what I said. When the moms start freaking out on FB, that's when the panic buying starts. The same thing happened a couple of years ago in Austin with the "gas shortage."

An example of the many non-medical side-effects from the virus: Pollution

ONE-TWO-- said:

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Anyone have good lists of food/items they are stocking up on? Gonna make a Sams run in a bit

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I've been using this site to prepare.

The Prepared - Coronavirus

My wife and kids thought i was nuts, now they're saying Costco (S.W Austin) has run out of TP.

To save you some time, instead of buying bottled water, i bought a Brita filter.
Easier, less waste.
We've also been stocking up on beans, rice, lentils.
And i will be adding pork chops, minced meat, and candy/chocolate to the list

Meds - Tylenonl, Advil, Flu medicine (though that's questionable)
People are going to panic, you want to stay ahead of the curve.

Buy things that you have been using, and that will not go waste once this blows over.
Oh, and i long stocked up on ammo for my 2 ARs :-)

What are you planning to put in your Brita filter?

Does it not surprise many of you that all the "Doom and Gloom" numbers of Coronavirus infections and deaths are coming out of China and Iran... two of your DeepState supporters ....

Yet when you look at South Korea the numbers aren't doom and gloom and are much more realistic..

I know it's early on for this entire situation , however if it turns out South Korean numbers are more realistic and Iran and China's are overblown and exaggerated.. then this is your Deep State at work..

These numbers aren't adding up everywhere.. something here smells Fishy...

DP

GAC06 said:

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What are you planning to put in your Brita filter?

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Nothing for now.
And i don't expect to, but it's always good to be prepared.

My aim is to always be prepared to shelter in place for 2 weeks in any scenario. The most likely one, being that all 5 families have the flu and are bedridden. it's happened once, and it sucked.

Oh, and i grew up in a 3rd world country where we always had to boil and filter our water.
Yes. I've become my parents

deddog said:

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GAC06 said:

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What are you planning to put in your Brita filter?

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Nothing for now.
And i don't expect to, but it's always good to be prepared.

My aim is to always be prepared to shelter in place for 2 weeks in any scenario. The most likely one, being that all 5 families have the flu and are bedridden. it's happened once, and it sucked.

Oh, and i grew up in a 3rd world country where we always had to boil and filter our water.
Yes. I've become my parents

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Did you grow up in Florida?

deddog said:

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GAC06 said:

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What are you planning to put in your Brita filter?

---

Nothing for now.
And i don't expect to, but it's always good to be prepared.

My aim is to always be prepared to shelter in place for 2 weeks in any scenario. The most likely one, being that all 5 families have the flu and are bedridden. it's happened once, and it sucked.

Oh, and i grew up in a 3rd world country where we always had to boil and filter our water.
Yes. I've become my parents

---

I have a brita that I use normally. In a SHTF situation, I'd want bottled or at least stored water. Tap water stops pretty quick without electricity. I'm in no way saying this virus will lead to the loss of power or water, just saying for emergency planning.

Aust Ag said:

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JJMt said:

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Horrific numbers for South Korea and Italy. I notice that Spain, France, Germany, and possibly the UK are also starting to go exponential. I guess that's not too surprising given their proximity to Italy.

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" horrific numbers in South Korea".... wonder if North Korea is going to have the last laugh in all this? I mean, I got to imagine that nobody's going into that country, right? Or out of course.

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Nope, the official number may stay at zero but it is already spreading among the Norks.

GAC06 said:

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deddog said:

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GAC06 said:

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What are you planning to put in your Brita filter?

---

Nothing for now.
And i don't expect to, but it's always good to be prepared.

My aim is to always be prepared to shelter in place for 2 weeks in any scenario. The most likely one, being that all 5 families have the flu and are bedridden. it's happened once, and it sucked.

Oh, and i grew up in a 3rd world country where we always had to boil and filter our water.
Yes. I've become my parents

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I have a brita that I use normally. In a SHTF situation, I'd want bottled or at least stored water. Tap water stops pretty quick without electricity. I'm in no way saying this virus will lead to the loss of power or water, just saying for emergency planning.

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Agreed, I have stored water too.

fullback44 said:

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These numbers aren't adding up everywhere.. something here smells Fishy...

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That's because of Lent and nothing to do with Corona.