YouBet said:

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I instructed my wife to stock up yesterday. I'm out of town right now.

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We got a few things today that will probably be gobbled up in the next few weeks.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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scottimus said:

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I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!

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So you are excited and happy that this turned into a thing? That tells me all I need to know about you and others on this thread...

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Also,

I have two graduate students from Wuhan China who have family that have been in quarantine for a month, now.
His sister ran out of meat over a week and a half ago....I have direct information from ground zero.

I have spoken with and posted about conversations I had directly with CDC and Infectious Respiratory Specialists that were deniers about this from the get go, also. Ironically he trained the Chinese CDC.

Some of us have only had to use common sense about what was going on to know....

You used the word excited, but I think you are employing the wrong definition.
For instance, you best believe that the CDC, America, and possibly the World are now excited...

In the past, I've been saying this is being blown way out of proportion. Still think it is, though that won't stop people from panicking if people's friends on Facebook start to get very nervous. I think we finally may be reaching that point.

scottimus said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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scottimus said:

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I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!

---

So you are excited and happy that this turned into a thing? That tells me all I need to know about you and others on this thread...

---

Also,

I have two graduate students from Wuhan China who have family that have been in quarantine for a month, now.
His sister ran out of meat over a week and a half ago....I have direct information from ground zero.

I have spoken with and posted about conversations I had directly with CDC and Infectious Respiratory Specialists that were deniers about this from the get go, also. Ironically he trained the Chinese CDC.

Some of us have only had to use common sense about what was going on to know....

You used the word excited, but I think you are employing the wrong definition.
For instance, you best believe that the CDC, America, and possibly the World are now excited...

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more people have died from the Flu then CornaVirus.

mathguy86 said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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R0 between 3-6. Flu is ~2

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An order of magnitude is 10x. So no NCov19 is not 20-30 times more transmissible as far as we know.

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Order of magnitude implies a multiple. These are way more than orders of magnitude. These are exponential rates of transmission. They aren't multiples of each other. An R0 of 2 spreads from a single source of 1 infecting 2 who in turn infect 4 who in turn infect 8 and so on. 1,2,4,8,16,32... An R0 of 6 is 1,6,36,216,1296,7776...

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I was mistaken, I took it as op was saying R0 was 20-30x higher than flu.

I have never heard of order of magnitude being anything other than a factor of 10

Wonder how vitamin C supplements are doing on the store shelves?

We are getting to the point we need a list of countries that DO NOT have a case.

oops.

Weird how South America and Africa have no outbreaks. Or maybe it's just no testing.

LaQuica said:

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scottimus said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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scottimus said:

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I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!

---

So you are excited and happy that this turned into a thing? That tells me all I need to know about you and others on this thread...

---

Also,

I have two graduate students from Wuhan China who have family that have been in quarantine for a month, now.
His sister ran out of meat over a week and a half ago....I have direct information from ground zero.

I have spoken with and posted about conversations I had directly with CDC and Infectious Respiratory Specialists that were deniers about this from the get go, also. Ironically he trained the Chinese CDC.

Some of us have only had to use common sense about what was going on to know....

You used the word excited, but I think you are employing the wrong definition.
For instance, you best believe that the CDC, America, and possibly the World are now excited...

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more people have died from the Flu then CornaVirus

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I'm not even going to dignify your response with a response...just a laugh

However, your last post was on page 47 and you have only posted on this thread 3 times in the 275 post history you have of an ongoing 197 page thread.

You are probably a sock and if not you can gtfo...

jlAG97 said:

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Wonder how vitamin C supplements are doing on the store shelves?

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https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000Z8YM7O/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Bo Darville said:

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Weird how South America and Africa have no outbreaks. Or maybe it's just no testing.

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Didn't Chile just pop off?

Bo Darville said:

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Weird how South America and Africa have no outbreaks. Or maybe it's just no testing.

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Chile is monitoring 200+ right now.

LaQuica said:

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scottimus said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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scottimus said:

---

I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!

---

So you are excited and happy that this turned into a thing? That tells me all I need to know about you and others on this thread...

---

Also,

I have two graduate students from Wuhan China who have family that have been in quarantine for a month, now.
His sister ran out of meat over a week and a half ago....I have direct information from ground zero.

I have spoken with and posted about conversations I had directly with CDC and Infectious Respiratory Specialists that were deniers about this from the get go, also. Ironically he trained the Chinese CDC.

Some of us have only had to use common sense about what was going on to know....

You used the word excited, but I think you are employing the wrong definition.
For instance, you best believe that the CDC, America, and possibly the World are now excited...

---

more people have died from the Flu then CornaVirus.

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Such a tired, naive, and intellectually dishonest take. Yes, more people have died of flu. Far more people have caught flu though. For now. Influenza already is a global infection and has been forever. Of course more people would have died of it.

Now infect the portion of the population with another infection that will stack on top of the flu. These infections are not exclusive. Take something that even by the most conservative estimates has a higher mortality rate than flu, and apply it to the same number of people who caught flu globally.

You are arguing absolute numbers vs percentages when talking about a global scale with differing control and infected numbers. And that is just.....well, dumb to be frank.

KorbinDallas said:

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We are getting to the point we need a list of countries that DO NOT have a case.

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That website is terrifyingly up-to-date.

Seeing the Diamond Princess cruise ship going from 10 cases to more than 690 over the course of its two-week quarantine and accounting for more than half of all the cases outside China makes me never want to go on a cruise ship.

Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

Even the diamond princess ship had 691 cases, 4 of which died with 35 that were serious. Those proportions don't seem to be that scary.

LaQuica said:

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more people have died from the Flu then CornaVirus.

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#JustTheFlu

Exsurge Domine said:

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Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

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Chinese factories are just barely open. It's affecting the world economy. For whatever reason they have almost closed the country.

Exsurge Domine said:

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Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

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Basically the spread of the thing I think. You go from zero to a whole herd of cases in basically no time at all, which is something people definitely find concerning. Add that to there being no full understanding of this or the longer term effects and there you go.

He has to be a sock...

I'm just wondering what I should be doing to protect my company. I'm a decent sized small business, and am working with my health and safety, operations and Hr departments to figure out a plan if this thing goes big in the US, but I literally have no clue how to prepare for my workforce going missing haha.

Exsurge Domine said:

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Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

Even the diamond princess ship had 691 cases, 4 of which died with 35 that were serious. Those proportions don't seem to be that scary.

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Because the numbers, both infected and deaths, are almost assuredly being under reported as you mentioned.

And that is the number of cases AFTER some truly draconian control measures were taken. Measures that would be nation breaking here.

The devil is in the details though. Lack of testing and efficacy of that testing is my biggest eyebrow raise. Along with mislabeling, both intentional and otherwise. Is Singapore even testing their own cases now? Pretty sure they weren't at first right?

And the incubation period is my other big takeaway and why I can't bury my head in the sand on this one.

Exsurge Domine said:

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Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

Even the diamond princess ship had 691 cases, 4 of which died with 35 that were serious. Those proportions don't seem to be that scary.

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It is the complication rate of 15% to 20% -being hospitalized for two weeks or maybe longer. Lots of employees not coming to work for 3 weeks or longer.

Exsurge Domine said:

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I'm just wondering what I should be doing to protect my company. I'm a decent sized small business, and am working with my health and safety, operations and Hr departments to figure out a plan if this thing goes big in the US, but I literally have no clue how to prepare for my workforce going missing haha.

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My honest advice, have a generous PTO program in place. I'm not sure what your company does but making it as easy as possible to not come in and get everyone else sick is the best thing you can do in my opinion.

The Fife said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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Somebody help walk me through this please, I am not trying to be a denier but can you let me know why this is such a huge deal?

It seems like Chinese cases have peaked and they're at about 77,660 cases. If we put a 10x factor on that as I'm sure they're under reporting, that's a very small portion of their population, 800,000 out of 1,400,000,000. Singapore seems to be declining, with 91 cases out of 5.2 million. Japan: 170 out of 130 million.

It doesn't seem like this would be a gigantic issue. What am I missing?

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Chinese factories are just barely open. It's affecting the world economy. For whatever reason they have almost closed the country.

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China's closed; moose out front should've told you.

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It didn't because they ate it.

Listening to CDC now...they are looking for more cases.

Get ready for Military intervention...IMHO

Exsurge Domine said:

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I'm just wondering what I should be doing to protect my company. I'm a decent sized small business, and am working with my health and safety, operations and Hr departments to figure out a plan if this thing goes big in the US, but I literally have no clue how to prepare for my workforce going missing haha.

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Honestly? Begin making preparations to allow people to work from home if at all possible so that when the time comes, you can close the office and keep them safer. Also, begin preparing to be grounded for a while if you travel for your company. Given that the airlines are union controlled, I doubt they will be flying if it gets bad.

If you have production somewhere, I would begin either stocking up or at least cutting back now so that you don't lose your ass.

The reality is that we're all staring down the barrel of gun that when fires may very well kick off a global Depression if this is as bad as they say it is.

I'm not really sure what else you can do beyond hoping and prayer it doesn't get so bad it crushes the economy and kills tens of thousands or more.

scottimus said:

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Listening to CDC now...they are looking for more cases.

Get ready for Military intervention...IMHO

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Is there another call on?

scottimus said:

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Listening to CDC now...they are looking for more cases.

Get ready for Military intervention...IMHO

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Have national guard and reserve units been notified?

These articles are coming out of the woodwork now.

The Fife said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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I'm just wondering what I should be doing to protect my company. I'm a decent sized small business, and am working with my health and safety, operations and Hr departments to figure out a plan if this thing goes big in the US, but I literally have no clue how to prepare for my workforce going missing haha.

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My honest advice, have a generous PTO program in place. I'm not sure what your company does but making it as easy as possible to not come in and get everyone else sick is the best thing you can do in my opinion.

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That's going to be really difficult as we're a niche product manufacturing company. We are mostly automated but If I don't have people to receive material, ship it, and make it, it's going be difficult

One of the parents in my kids class who is a doctor just blasted out an email to all the parents about preparing for COVID19 and preventing infection.

The news that this is not going to be contained is out, panic will follow shortly.

Even better: coronavirus and influenza can be raging through the same population or even the same person at the same time.