AG 2000' said:

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JB99 said:

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JJMt said:

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OldAg, you don't trust the numbers because they come from the government. Where are you getting your numbers and information that lead you to such dire conclusions?

What specific reasons do you have to believe that the numbers from the U.S. are lies?

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He explained his logic above. He's counting the high numbers of people quarantined as evidence the mortality rate is much higher. Seems like a big jump in logic to me. There's really no tangible evidence that the mortality rate is anything to worry over at this point.

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Here is the problem. Everyone that ends up in serious or worse shape needs a ventilator. There aren't enough for a widespread infection of the population.

For example in the US we have about 100k ventilator beds total. Once infected and serious hit that threshold, standard of care will go down and mortality will start to go up exponentially.

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This is a reasonable take, and highlights the importance of aggressively identifying and isolating potential cases. This can overwhelm a health system very quickly (see Wuhan). Some community spread is likely, even in modern/Western countries, but more advanced countries have a significantly higher chance of preventing widescale spread. This virus could be extremely impactful in under developed countries around the world.

If we can't trust the numbers what numbers are the researchers using to derive the R0?

With an R0 of 8 and a mean incubation time of 4 days you get the whole world being infected in about three days time from a starting point in December. So at some point either reality is wrong or the model.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Indonesia (the world's 4th most populous country and a major hub for Chinese trade) has zero reported cases. It must be the weather!!! Or could it be that they just aren't reporting anything???


Would y'all please stop with the climate talk stopping this virus. Most people is the US spend 90% of their time indoors. That % is lower in other countries but people still spend a majority of their time INDOORS.


Use a stopwatch over the next couple days, let it run when you're outside. See what your total time outside is.....

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My man, I'm not saying it's solely the warmer weather. I AM saying is maybe it's actually helping the virus not spread as rapidly since theoretically the lifespan is shorter for viruses in warmer weather. Not even saying this virus even acts the same.

I also get your point that we spend a lot of time indoors, but people do spend more time outdoors when it's warmer than when it's winter.

I also don't doubt some counties aren't reporting.

We still know very little about how this virus acts, so just trying to see if maybe acts similarly to other viruses.

However, I'll stop the climate talk as not to derail a thread that does posses mostly decent information.

k2aggie07 said:

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If we can't trust the numbers what numbers are the researchers using to derive the R0?

With an R0 of 8 and a mean incubation time of 4 days you get the whole world being infected in about three days time from a starting point in December. So at some point either reality is wrong or the model.

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That's what I love. China was underreporting. R0 of 8!! The entire world was going to be infected by now. Of course now the US is underreporting to protect the markets. Still predicting the end of the world. If the facts don't back you up claim they are lies. Move the goal posts. So ridiculous.

mpl35 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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If we can't trust the numbers what numbers are the researchers using to derive the R0?

With an R0 of 8 and a mean incubation time of 4 days you get the whole world being infected in about three days time from a starting point in December. So at some point either reality is wrong or the model.

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That's what I love. China was underreporting. R0 of 8!! The entire world was going to be infected by now. Of course now the US is underreporting to protect the markets. Still predicting the end of the world. If the facts don't back you up claim they are lies. Move the goal posts. So ridiculous.

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Yeah I've moved on from the worlds ending to it's another sickness getting a lot of air time (pun intended) and targets the elderly.

JJMt said:

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What's strange is that the news on the cruise ship has completely stopped. No new cases have been reported for the last couple of days. It's holding at 634.

Yet those infected who were airlifted to the U.S. have been added to the U.S. total. Why weren't they deducted from the cruise ship?

Is there anyone left on the cruise ship? If so, aren't there new infections?

It almost seems like since the major countries took their people away, no one cares about the poor souls left on that ship.

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There has been news, but it's been divided among the countries.

*The British couple who are hospitalized were moved to another hospital and their children are pleading on youtube to have them medivac'd out. It looks like the UK did their rescue flight for people on the ship yesterday.

*5 or 6 Australians tested positive once they returned

*There are still a few on I believe (I think it's still staff, but I am having a hard time finding info on it, seems I read it as a secondary note to an article) and today it was reported that 23 passengers were allowed to leave without having a second testing done.

*One of the evacuees from Israel tested positive after returning

* a positive case in Japan was someone who had tested negative on the ship, but tested positive in country. This one I'm having a hard time pulling links for because of pay walls.

*These are off the top of my head. Let me see if I can pull links.

Youtube plea:
UK Flight of passengers: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/brits-coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-to-fly-home

Australians: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/22/coronavirus-two-more-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive

23 released without testing: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/japan-23-cruise-passengers-tested-disembarking-69142446

Israel case: https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israelis-cleared-to-return-from-Diamond-Princess-could-have-coronavirus-618328

And all this to say, although I appreciate that these people were quarantined, it was not done properly, and obviously now that multiple countries have people testing positive, it makes me frustrated to see Americans who have so far tested negative but refused the rescue flight sight seeing around Tokyo. I really hope that Mr Smith and his partner are negative.

Interesting thread by a molecular biologist.

Not sure if this has been linked but a couple from DFW have been doing a live update (AMA) about their experiences aboard the Diamond Princess and now are quarantined in San Antonio. Interesting read. The link is to part 3 but he has linked the other parts within.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/f5hq05/part_3_im_a_quarantined_diamond_princess/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

VaultingChemist said:

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"2 new cases in the UAE, one of them a visitor from Iran"

This line is one of the scariest pieces of information on this thread. This means a visitor from Iran affected someone in UAE about a week ago. A week ago, no one even knew Iran had COVID.

This means COVID is out in the wild and that simply screening people from China is insufficient to contain it. It is now in countries and we are unaware that people from those countries have it either due to suppressing information, inability to test for it or ignorance on their part.

The only way to contain it now is to screen everyone who travels abroad to any other country or shut down all foreign travel. Neither will happen.

We are going to have an epidemic in America.

coastsrs said:

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mpl35 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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If we can't trust the numbers what numbers are the researchers using to derive the R0?

With an R0 of 8 and a mean incubation time of 4 days you get the whole world being infected in about three days time from a starting point in December. So at some point either reality is wrong or the model.

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That's what I love. China was underreporting. R0 of 8!! The entire world was going to be infected by now. Of course now the US is underreporting to protect the markets. Still predicting the end of the world. If the facts don't back you up claim they are lies. Move the goal posts. So ridiculous.

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Yeah I've moved on from the worlds ending to it's another sickness getting a lot of air time (pun intended) and targets the elderly.

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Same here. I dodged swine flu, and I can dodge this one as well. Just have to keep distance from everyone, wash hands frequently when out in public, don't touch your face, and also stock up on AR ammo just in case SHTF. Also, avoid Asians.

Bobcat06 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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"2 new cases in the UAE, one of them a visitor from Iran"

This line is one of the scariest pieces of information on this thread. This means a visitor from Iran affected someone in UAE about a week ago. A week ago, no one even knew Iran had COVID.

This means COVID is out in the wild and that simply screening people from China is insufficient to contain it. It is now in countries and we are unaware that people from those countries have it either due to suppressing information, inability to test for it or ignorance on their part.

The only way to contain it now is to screen everyone who travels abroad to any other country or shut down all foreign travel. Neither will happen.

We are going to have an epidemic in America.

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From Imperial College in the UK
Global Surveillance of Coronavirus Cases

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Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected regions and countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

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How many are already in the U.S. and are not being reported?

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I am interpreting the data within the observations of what countries have *done* in reponse to the virus -- not what they have *said*. What have they done? Not just quarantine the sick -- they quarantined the community. They did not simply stop there -- they quarantined the city. They did not stop there either -- they quarantined the region. Within the quarantine -- China literally welded the doors shut of those suspected of being infected so that they could not leave their homes. Such actions are not taken for a mild virus of stuffy noses and coughs. China also closed down the Internet to halt citizen reporting of what is going on there.

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They've taken those drastic measures and it's still spreading. I find that unsettling.

It will take about 2 weeks to start seeing deaths, if any, due to the coronavirus. I hope we don't have many cases, but after watching the infections mushroom in Italy and Iran, I am very wary.

What are your thoughts?
Do we restrict international flights more than we have?
How many infected travelers to the U.S. would it take to make it impossible to track the spread and trace all their contacts? 100? 1000?

Nm

JJMt said:

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If that is happening, we should be seeing a very sharp and noticeable uptick in "flu" deaths and very serious cases.

I doubt that it's widespread in the U.S. just yet because my guess is that every single doctor here is on very heightened alert about COVID-19 and would be suspicious of any patient exhibiting any of the symptoms.

Plus, the screening that I've seen no longer is limited to travelers to China and hasn't been for quite some time. I had to go to a nearby VA hospital about 3 weeks ago to pick something up for my dad and they had posters plastered everywhere notifying visitors to report to someone immediately if they had merely traveled by air or been around someone that traveled by air within 3 weeks and have a fever or respiratory symptoms.

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Was just about the post the same basic thing.

Unless they're all mild cases with no reason to suspect coronavirus, it would be impossible to hide it if all of a sudden people all over the place are being put on ventilators.

Heck, my great uncle here in B/CS went to the doctor for what turned out to be a massive sinus infection and the first thing they did was want to know if he had recently been to China, had any contact with someone from China, or if he had been in contact with anyone else showing the symptoms of the coronavirus. The man is 90 years old and only leaves his home to go to the doctor and to tend his flowers in the backyard. The only people he has come into contact with are his wife, who also can't leave home as she is confined to a wheel chair, and some of his children who help them out with shopping and other needs. None of his kids are sick nor have had any contact with people from China.

If you go to Scott and White with any cold/flu like symptoms, they will immediately ask the same questions about possible coronavirus exposure. The CDC already recommended anyone who shows symptoms, but testing negative for the flu, should be tested for coronavirus. Of course, one can test negative for the flu and still have it. Last flu test I took in early 2019 said I didn't have the flu, but I absolutely did. Three days of high fever and ever other flu symptom confirmed that. Heck, go in with the flu and they will treat you like you have coronavirus and Ebola at the same time, until they get a positive flu test.

Quote:

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China also closed down the Internet to halt citizen reporting of what is going on there.

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Either they did a piss poor job of it because as we see on this thread all the time, people are posting to Twitter and other sites claiming to be in Wuhan, or there are a lot of fakers out there.

VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected regions and countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

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How many are already in the U.S. and are not being reported?

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According to the CDC there are officially 35 cases in the US.

Also, the CDC are trying to move 70 cases from Travis AFB to a nursing home in California

And Italy is getting crazier.

One woman tested positive after a post mortem swab. She passed in her home.
and then this

Man previously thought to be 'patient zero' in Italy's outbreak never had the virus, deputy health minister says. It's now unknown how the outbreak began - La Repubblica


edit to add this real time article:
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/22/news/coronavirus_in_italia_aggiornamento_ora_per_ora-249241616/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I249215369-C12-P1-S1.12-T1&refresh_ce

Here is a canary in the mine for you:

The Mormon Church is set to remove all of their missionaries from South Korea -- following self-quarantining all of their missionaries from Hong Kong.

I point this canary out because Mormons have very powerful people in positions in D.C., and certainly have inside information not available to the public about this virus. Additionally, their Church leader is a world-renowned medical doctor that certainly would have insight into this virus that few others would have.

So, if the Mormons are packing up and leaving.....

OldAg89er said:

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Here is a canary in the mine for you:

The Mormon Church is set to remove all of their missionaries from South Korea -- following self-quarantining all of their missionaries from Hong Kong.

I point this canary out because Mormons have very powerful people in positions in D.C., and certainly have inside information not available to the public about this virus. Additionally, their Church leader is a world-renowned medical doctor that certainly would have insight into this virus that few others would have.

So, if the Mormons are packing up and leaving.....

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Or it simply means they'd rather be safe than sorry and are taking actions to ensure the safety of their people in case it does get really bad. Better to leave now than risk getting stuck in the country. They'd do the same if the problem was political violence and the potential for a violent revolution.

Hong Kong hasn't turned into Wuhan 2.0.

Just like the US military at the beginning of the month telling all commanders to review procedures for dealing with a pandemic can be interpreted as doomsday is coming and the government knows it, or they're doing everything possible should the worst happens.

Italy's cases are scattered across an area from Milan to Venice.

Not good. Milan is a major transportation hub (high speed rail).

VaultingChemist said:

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Italy's cases are scattered across an area from Milan to Venice.

Not good. Milan is a major transportation hub (high speed rail).

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Italy has no hope for containment. Especially if they were wrong about their Patient Zero.

It's all Russian Propaganda! Nothing to see here! PLEASE DISPERSE!

Lmao everything I don't like is now Russian propaganda.

Does that mean OP is a Russian bot?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

I believe this is an op-ed vs an actual news report. Interesting nonetheless.

Quote:

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The CDC already recommended anyone who shows symptoms, but testing negative for the flu, should be tested for coronavirus.

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Quote:

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The CDC is still handling the bulk of testing for the coronavirus as it works out issues with test kits sent to states, Messonnier said.

Only three U.S. states currently have the capacity to run tests for the virus locally, the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) told Reuters on Friday.

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****ing China.

No just OldAg89

UncoverAg00 said:

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Does that mean OP is a Russian bot?

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Don't you put that voodoo on me!!!! I'm red blooded 'Mercian!

Iran is going to **** everyone but not in the way that we thought.