China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,247,309 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Big Al 1992
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AG
Curious how long the virus lives on flat surfaces - the usual suspects like airplane trays, door handles, table tops, and nowadays smartphones.
FamousAgg
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Not sure if it's been tested on this specific virus, but other Coronavirus last 2 hours to 9 days.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces
Beat40
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scottimus said:

NYT Reporting (according to CCDC) Covid19 incubation time may be as long as 24 days...10 days longer than thought.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-incubation-period-may-be-much-longer-than-once-thought/?utm_source=facebook_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR3Ewaqg8bD2XvqmjaDrcc0MFN3DEOLfwMRsnF94oNN4EsdiT0zjGhEetqk

Quote:



The incubation period for COVID-19 could be as long as 24 days 10 days more than previously understood, a new study says.
China's National Health Commission released new research that suggests that the standard 14-day quarantine period might not be enough to contain the spread of the virus, Business Insider reported.
The study, which was co-authored by Dr. Zhong Nanshan, who is credited with detecting SARS in 2003, determined that the incubation period for the new coronavirus ranges up to 24 days, with the average being three days.
The research, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, also suggested that patients can infect other people during the incubation period, echoing the findings of previous reports about the virus.
The new revelations raise questions about the necessary length of quarantine periods for the virus.
US officials have been ordering American evacuees from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, to stay in isolation for 14 days in accordance with known incubation periods.
Questioned about the latest research, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's a "really interesting report," but the agency is also considering "all the other data that's available."
"I would say the incubation period is obviously really important for us as we look to make sure that we're releasing these people safely from quarantine, but the abundance of data that is available still is consistent with our current stance, which is to use 14 days as the end of that incubation period," Dr. Nancy Messonier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Wednesday in a conference call.
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 1,300 people and infected more than 48,000 in China.

Pretty sure that we already knew this prior to this article. That the average was about 3 days with outliers up to 24 days. I bolded that part from your article.
KidDoc
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AG
KorbinDallas said:

YouBet said:


10 year high for kids here in Dallas. Supposedly.


That brings up a good ood point. Conservative estimates show COVID19 to be 2x the flu's transmissibility, up to 6x by some others. If/when we do get a case in the wild it could spread like wildfire.
It is very easy to find complete data on the flu in the USA. One of the joys of not being communists I guess.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
aezmvp
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KorbinDallas said:

YouBet said:


10 year high for kids here in Dallas. Supposedly.


That brings up a good ood point. Conservative estimates show COVID19 to be 2x the flu's transmissibility, up to 6x by some others. If/when we do get a case in the wild it could spread like wildfire.
So far we seem to be doing okay. The real issue is if these super spreaders get in the wild.
stetson
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AG
Big Al 1992 said:

Curious how long the virus lives on flat surfaces - the usual suspects like airplane trays, door handles, table tops, and nowadays smartphones.

I had read three days initially, however the Swiss chalet incident occurred five days after the infected guy checked out.
FJB
MouthBQ98
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AG
Depends on environmental conditions.

Seems to be fairly durable for a virus. Better hygiene and keeping your fingers out of your eyes and nose and mouth without washing would probably help quite a bit.
Big Al 1992
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AG
More on Japan-
PJYoung
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AG
Zemira
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AG
So most cases are mild. Those with more severe and critical cases tend to be older and have other underlying health conditions? Considering most of the deaths are in China, I would think the pollution, smoking and general nutrition have a big impact on how the disease affects people.
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FTAG 2000
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JJMt said:

346 Americans, those evacuated out of China, released from quarantine today. I think only one out of that group came down with COVID-19 and she's in the hospital being treated. Rather amazing!

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/18/806985225/coronavirus-updates-hospital-director-in-wuhan-dies-of-covid-19
Or they were released too soon.
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FTAG 2000
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JJMt said:

AG 2000' said:

JJMt said:

346 Americans, those evacuated out of China, released from quarantine today. I think only one out of that group came down with COVID-19 and she's in the hospital being treated. Rather amazing!

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/18/806985225/coronavirus-updates-hospital-director-in-wuhan-dies-of-covid-19
Or they were released too soon.
Now that's an example of a true optimist.



Hey, I hope it sticks out. I sure as heck would like this to be a nothingburger here in the U.S. when all is said and done.

At the same time, they already had one lady in Japan who was released come down with symptoms and test positive the day after being released from a fourteen day quarantine, and there's also reports out of China now that you can be asymptomatic / test negative for up to 24 days after exposure.

DE4D
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AG
"The meat is invisible"
Snap E Tom
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Big Al 1992 said:

More on Japan-

Did you catch that at 1:03? Other Chinese provinces were only testing those who had traveled from Wuhan.
FamousAgg
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FamousAgg
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South Korea just saw a 50% increase today. Appears this was another "super spreader" appears she was spreading it around before showing symptoms.

bmks270
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AG
This thing has breeched containment.
TyHolden
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AG
What are the odds at Vegas? That's the only source I trust.
TefIon Don
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AG
Have we discussed this article yet? Apparently anti-malarial drugs have been confirmed effective against the virus?

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm
scottimus
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AG
DSAg44 said:

What are the odds at Vegas? That's the only source I trust.
With Chinese gambling habits? ......Odds are that Covid19 is already there!

:: RIM SHOT::

Diyala Nick
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AG
Teflon Don. said:

Have we discussed this article yet? Apparently anti-malarial drugs have been confirmed effective against the virus?

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm


This is very good news. Chloroquine has been around for 70 years - it's safe and cheap (generic).
Phat32
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AG
Probably made in China though.
Big Al 1992
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AG
That number on the ship is insane. And they are letting more people off today...yet I believe no fatalities so far.

AgResearch
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AG
Big Al 1992 said:

That number on the ship is insane. And they are letting more people off today...yet I believe no fatalities so far.

The number on the ship is completely expected in my opinion. Close quarters, no way they can fully sanitize anything, staff contact with infected and non-infected items (food service), etc. It's a floating virus factory.
Cassius
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In the last day there have only been 1000 new cases reported. The curve now looks like it did right before the big jump on 2/13
japantiger
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S
Deaths by age:
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
Wheatables02
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AG
japantiger said:

Deaths by age:

what about 0-9?
nortex97
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AG
Outside of Petri dish settings (like urban china, cruise ship) it seems modern medicine and healthcare standards makes this just a tad worse than a regular flu outbreak.
JTA1029
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AG
Really low. The incidence is low too. I have a little one and was concerned about that too but it really seems like they get off the hook a bit more easily on this one.

Maybe they have fewer of the ACE2 or whatever cells this virus supposedly targets.
VaultingChemist
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Large study just released on 72,314 COVID-19 cases in China

Epidemiology Characteristics of COVID-19 Disease

Largest study to date, with a sample size of 72,314 cases.
81% of infections mild. 13.8% severe. 4.7% critical
Highest fatality rate is for people over 80, at 14.8%

Quote:

There were no deaths among children aged up to 9, despite at least two cases of newborn babies infected through their mothers.

The team also found that up to age 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.

The fatality rate increases gradually with age. For people in their 40s, it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8.0%.

And men are more likely to die (2.8 percent) than women (1.7 percent).


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VaultingChemist
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nortex97 said:

Outside of Petri dish settings (like urban china, cruise ship) it seems modern medicine and healthcare standards makes this just a tad worse than a regular flu outbreak.
The virus kills 10 times as many healthy young people (0.2% vs 0.02%) as the regular flu. In addition, it requires hospitalization of about 10% of those infected.
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