Considering the widespread panic has shut down their economy keeping everyone at home despite the relatively few cases, this is understandable. If one would read what much of this funding is actually going to, much of it is to cover losses in the business community.PJYoung said:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3050671/coronavirus-hong-kong-considers-airlifting-its-residents
Hong Kong has set aside a 3.2 billion dollar (US) fund for the virus.
4 days to spread the virus in Hawaii at a minimum.Quote:
He was in Hawaii from January 28 to February 7, according to NHK. He developed symptoms of a cold on February 3 and a fever on February 8
No news on that yet. First case in Japan was Jan. 15. I would guess that he caught it at the airport or on the flight on Jan. 28, with 6 day incubation period.JJMt said:
So did he pick it up in Hawaii, before Hawaii, or on his way to Hawaii?
Shanked Punt said:Considering the widespread panic has shut down their economy keeping everyone at home despite the relatively few cases, this is understandable. If one would read what much of this funding is actually going to, much of it is to cover losses in the business community.PJYoung said:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3050671/coronavirus-hong-kong-considers-airlifting-its-residents
Hong Kong has set aside a 3.2 billion dollar (US) fund for the virus.
Actually, I'm willing to bet they have a quarantine induced baby boom in 9 months that will far exceed the deaths from this virus.cclearman said:
Start the population control conspiracy theories
Quote:
All epidemics before they are brought under control take the form of a green line, an exponential function of some sort. It is impossible for them to take the form of a blue line, a quadratic or even cubic function of some sort. This is what the R-0 metric of basic reproduction rate means, and if as the WHO has been telling us from the outset the nCov2019 R-0 is >2, then the propagation rate must be described by a pretty steep exponential curve. As the kids would say, it's just math.
Now I don't want to get into the weeds as to whether it's possible to model this specific data set with an exponential function (it probably is), and we'll never have access to the detail of data we'd need to be certain about all this. And to be clear, at some point the original exponential spread of a disease becomes "sub-exponential" as containment and treatment measures kick in.
But I'll say this it's pretty suspicious that a quadratic expression fits the reported data so very, very closely. In fact, I simply can't imagine any real-world exponentially-propagating virus combined with real-world containment and treatment regimes that would fit a simple quadratic expression so beautifully.
I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces.
Just like the American government massively over-reported North Vietnamese casualty data in the Vietnam War.
It's not only that I believe the numbers coming out of China are largely made up.
More importantly, I also believe that Chinese epidemic-fighting policy just like American war-fighting policy in the Vietnam War is now being driven by the narrative requirement to find and count the "right number" of coronavirus casualties.
LOL.DannyDuberstein said:
I'm always looking for the opportunity to pay $240 for about $50 worth of crap. It's a bit like being a season ticketholder.
cclearman said:
they have a demographic (heavy male) problem but they also have an over population problem, especially if they can't keep their economy growing
Quote:
A North Korean trade official has reportedly been executed by firing squad for going to a public bath, in violation of his coronavirus quarantine after having returned from China.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876080
Part of the issue is that China has a gender imbalance... The other half of the issue is that there is a rapidly aging population like Japan. My cousin has to take care of 2 grandparents because he has a cousin (me). Were it true only children families like my friends, she has to take care of 4 grandparents herself when she is 30s-40s.KorbinDallas said:cclearman said:
they have a demographic (heavy male) problem but they also have an over population problem, especially if they can't keep their economy growing
I don't believe that is right anymore. There is a lot of information saying they could be seeing a major decline in the future. The one child policy is gone for a reason and it's not out of the kindness of Xi's heart.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/dangerous-demographics-chinas-population-problem-will-eclipse-its-ambitions-80961
Agvet12 said:
I don't buy the "aging population problem" theory. Most modern post Cold War countries are having that problem. Boomers were one of the largest generations across the world (as most countries were who needed population replenishment after large scale world wars...) * most not all - eg France post WW1
aggietony2010 said:Agvet12 said:
I don't buy the "aging population problem" theory. Most modern post Cold War countries are having that problem. Boomers were one of the largest generations across the world (as most countries were who needed population replenishment after large scale world wars...) * most not all - eg France post WW1
I was listening to a podcast the other day. They need their females to start reproducing at 21 and have 3 kids each (and those kids continue the process) to maintain their population.
Their reported reproduction ratio is like 1.6. The guest on the podcast said it's more like 1.06.
Decades of one-child policy have also made the prospect of having a child not important to Chinese culture. The other developed nations with low population replacement rates face a less severe problem. They were actually developed when they started their demographic transition. China, not so much.
Agvet12 said:
Then why was he tested? And is it the same success rate kit of all the others that needs to be tested 2-3 times?
Quote:
The person, whose gender or nationality was not disclosed, was suspected to have been infected with virus thanks to precautins taken for people arriving in Egypt from countries where cases of the infection have been registered, a Health Ministry official said.
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/egypt-reports-first-coronavirus-case-1.1581702932596
It's much worse in China. My father and their generation all had around 2-3 siblings. Every generation after that has been one child to my understanding.Agvet12 said:
I don't buy the "aging population problem" theory. Most modern post Cold War countries are having that problem. Boomers were one of the largest generations across the world (as most countries were who needed population replenishment after large scale world wars...) * most not all - eg France post WW1
erudite said:It's much worse in China. My father and their generation all had around 2-3 siblings. Every generation after that has been one child to my understanding.Agvet12 said:
I don't buy the "aging population problem" theory. Most modern post Cold War countries are having that problem. Boomers were one of the largest generations across the world (as most countries were who needed population replenishment after large scale world wars...) * most not all - eg France post WW1
Quote:
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's economy in 2019 grew at its lowest rate since 1990 and that the country's birth rate fell to a record low. While gross domestic product grew 6.1 per cent last year, China's birth rate dropped to 1.05 per cent.
In Shanghai, one of China's most important cities, the damaging effect of the one-child policy on the world's second-largest economy is particularly acute. Weng Wenlei, vice-president of the Shanghai Women's Federation, a government body, said birth rates in Shanghai had plunged despite efforts to relax China's population control. She said births in the city had fallen "swiftly" following a brief recovery in 2016, when China began allowing couples to have two children.
Basically in China, the apartment complex management does bi-weekly checkups.. Its technically something they should do by law but is not really enforced usually.DirtyMikesBoys said:
Question: In and around Wuhan ~56,000,000 people were quarantined to varying degrees, some very strict, for a long, long time now. If the hospitals are full and wait times to get tested are hours upon hours of waiting as reported, can someone explain to me how China could possibly know how many people are dead or dying in their homes?
Maybe big brother knocks on the door daily to check roll, which is hardly an unlikely scenario I suppose, but if they don't have a detailed roll/status of the 56,000,000, wouldn't it follow that there's an overwhelmingly high probability their infected/fatal numbers are significantly underreported? Hard to count cases and deaths if they're dead laying on the couch.
On the other hand, even if they were checking roll on everyone in lockdown, it would appear favorable for CCP to simply dispose of elderly, young, whoever they find who've succumbed to the Coronavirus in their own homes unable to make it to the hospital, thus the same result, underreported.
TIA
Look, I know you're having fun with your little 500K views thread here, but really, you posted this just this month about this;Mr.Infectious said:
Guys, please take the demographics debate to another thread....
I get that you want to position this as some sort of concerned outbreak thread, but this is F16 not a CDC board.Quote:
What if this was a deadman's switch by Q. Soleimani?
What if he had this virus made in an Iranian bio-lab and had instructions to release if he were assassinated. Releasing in the US, Europe, Japan, Western civilization wouldn't be effective due to advanced health systems to identify and contain the outbreak. Releasing in India or other 3rd world countries wouldn't work because they don't have the economic impacts and travel connections. China is the perfect ground zero due to high speed travel, economy, and super high population density. Plus he's one of those true believers in the return of the Madhi.
Granted we are trying a little to fit a square peg into a round hole but it was an interesting side track discussion. We chalked it up to plausible but unlikely.
2nd one was a little more out there and had a longer time horizon. What if this was a world wide Pearl Harbor shot as the beginning of WW3?
Step 1:Chinese deliberately release the virus to be able to 1) activate their military once the spread is large enough, 2) use the crisis to to eliminate internal dissent and 3) eliminate the useless eater portion of their population that they could no longer feed or care for due to the pig Ebola.
Step 2: The economic impacts of China not producing anything grind the world to a halt.
Step 3: China is way ahead of the curve as far as crisis management goes since hey knew it was coming and has at least a six week start on the rest of the world. Plus the authoritarian iron fist to beat people into submission.
Step 4: China stays within its borders and sits back and watch as the virus spreads like wild fire in the 3rd world and as the economic effects shatter the western world. Chaos and civil war reign in France, US, Europe etc. Places like Africa and South America can't handle the Healthcare impacts and get cut off economically.
Step 5: the world burns and starved over the course of a year or two with massive population reduction due to illness, famine, civil war, violence, and suicide.
Step 6: they use the Belt and Road to pick up the pieces around the world and eliminate pockets of resistance. Sure they may have lost 500million of their own BUT they still have a billion to repopulate the world in their own image.
One shot fired, the Chinese have free reign to do what they want throughout the world.
