BadMoonRisin said:

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Beat40 said:

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Outside of economic impact, why is this thread still so focused on China?

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Because 99% of the cases originate there...just a thought.

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Here's the everyday cycle: China posts numbers, posters say how much China is lying, speculation about what is actually going on happens, and everyone ends up at the same point at the end of the cycle - China cannot be trusted and are lying about their numbers.

Then, to break the cycle a little bit, we get a non-peer reviewed paper (or two) with a sample that is using numbers in China, which we already don't trust, we are extrapolating those numbers, and beginning to draw some conclusions from them.

You are correc that 99% of cases are in China. My point is that we all agree China is lying about their numbers. Travel has been cut off with people from China and any that are not Chinese who are allowed into the country are quarantined immediately. Travel out of Chine is extremely tough at the moment, aside from the non-commercial supply flights.

We still have essentially no clue about this virus because we simply cannot trust China to this point. I am hopeful the WHO can start to shed some real light on the situation, but I'm still skeptical we are going to get truly accurate and trustworthy information out of China, even with the WHO there.

Again, why are we so focused on China at this point outside of economic impact? We should be focused on Singapore, the UK, and California.

By the way, I'm not saying we shouldn't keep an eye on China. I'm just saying, I believe the countries outside of China with confirmed cases are the real places to pay close attention.

ttu_85 said:

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Tx-Ag2010 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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JJMt said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Yeah this isn't a good sign for the tests.

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She may have been re-exposed after the earlier tests.

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IF you catch it and survive you have antibodies. Re-exposure would not matter in that case unless the virus mutated. Highly unlikely

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If only people got the flu once...

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Different strains of flu. Very hard to get the same strain twice in the same season. This thing is totally new though it has relatives.

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I know. I was being mostly sarcastic. I'm really hoping that this virus doesn't mutate like the flu and cause a semi regular 2% mortality rate.

It is a RNA virus.

Don't believe that's actually been confirmed, just thrown around like the HIV stuff.

OnlyForNow said:

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Don't believe that's actually been confirmed, just thrown around like the HIV stuff.

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It's what every article says so far.

I'm sure if it isn't, we'll hear about it sooner or later. I might be wrong, but I think all cornoaviruses are RNA viruses.

What is an RNA virus?

Death count still climbing

andyv94 said:

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What is an RNA virus?

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Basically a mutable virus.

Just an FYI. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_virus

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They are pre-planned, but Bezos sold about $1 billion total each year in 2016 and 2017. This is 4 times those amounts. Coincidental timing?

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It could also be part of a huge divorce settlement!

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Or, it could be, bear with me here, a coincidence.

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Or it could be part of a divorce settlement!

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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The stock market is almost completely divorced from reality and is automated and operated by computers 100% of the time. Why anyone thinks the market is representative of reality on the ground is beyond me.

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Today worldwide markets are reacting to the new numbers out of China. Not good.

Beat40 said:

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Outside of economic impact, why is this thread still so focused on China?

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How about you know, contributing some news from outside of China yourself?

Depends on how the test works. If it looks for antibodies and a person is earlier in the infection and has a lower viral load and has produced few antibodies specific enough to the virus to detect on the test, they won't show positive

VaultingChemist said:

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Interesting scientific article:

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (nCoV)

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This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of viruses from the novel coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak. All samples are highly related with at most seven mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections.

We observe clustering of related infections in Zhuhai, Foshan, Shenzhen and Paris. So far, all of these clusters are noted as "family cluster infection". This represents clear direct human-to-human transmission within a house-hold. We do not yet see clear evidence in the phylogeny for community spread outside of Wuhan.

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From a week ago. Updated for more samples.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/13/fce6e116-4dea-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html#link-35RMCQCSHA7QNL2O2OTJAPO7WM

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The ruling party's Central Committee announced Thursday that Jiang Chaoliang, a former banker and Party secretary of Hubei province since 2016, had been fired. He will be replaced by the Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong.

Ma Guoqiang, the party boss overseeing Wuhan, the city at the heart of the outbreak, has also been replaced by Wang Zhonglin, an official from eastern Shandong province with a background in the security and legal apparatus, according to state media.

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Ying Yong is a close ally of Xi before his ascension to power. Xi relies on his Zhijiang (Shandong+Zhejiang) clique associates heavily like Jiang Zemin does with Shanghai.
Wang Zhonglin is a relative unknown but was a very close ally of Xi during his anti-corruption drive (He wasn't purged in a developing city, hinting that he was either important or an ally).

I said there was behind the scene politics. Here is your proof.

lunchbox said:

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That seems like a good way to spread it pretty quickly.

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Today worldwide markets are reacting to the new numbers out of China. Not good.

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Most Wall Street advisors were projecting that China would have the nCoV virus under control by the end of March, or shortly thereafter.

Tx-Ag2010 said:

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andyv94 said:

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What is an RNA virus?

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Basically a mutable virus.

Just an FYI. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_virus

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An RNA virus stores its genetic description in RNA rather than in DNA like most organisms (including other types of viruses). The common and cold and HIV are two other RNA viruses. All viruses are mutable. That really means the genetic replication is not perfect when it is multiplying. Sometimes the change is benign, sometimes the change destroys the new version, but sometimes the change makes the virus more contagious, more lethal, or harder for the immune system to detect or other times the opposite for all of those.

JJMt said:

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If I'm understanding you correctly, Xi is using this crisis to expand and extend his political power by replacing officials with others more loyal to him?

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Even if he wasn't. This is a major situation change.Edit: If this man was a supporter of Xi, then he botched the job enough for Xi to get rid of him due to bad PR.
Xi is like Stalin before the great purge. His power is not absolute and he doesn't know who (mostly) opposes him. Therefore, he needs to replace the provincial leaders with people he can trust, since these provincial leaders are generally to a degree highly autonomous.
The Chinese phrase "(to) cut by one knife slice" here is what I mean. Because of the replacement, a lot of lower level officials are going to loose their jobs or be purged as well because 90% of those who got up that far in the ladder was because they aligned with the previous leader. You don't remove part of a tumor. You remove the tumor + and area that is suspected around it.

JJMt said:

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What happens to the people that are replaced? Do they "disappear", or do they get other, lower level jobs in the Party or elsewhere?

How likely is it that Xi will resort to Stalin's methodologies and have his own "Great Purge"?

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Depends on the severity of the offense.
Bo Xilai's supporters were usually dismissed from the CCP, demoted, reassigned far from their powerbase/previous postings (Assigning people from Beijing to like Tibet, etc), jailed, confined to hotels, confined to asylums, or a combination of all of the above. Exile is not an option under Xi.

The rule since Hua Guofeng (Man who succeeded Mao) is that political losers are never disappeared or executed, only incarcerated. If Xi changes that it might kick off a civil war and he is very well aware of that.

This woman never visited China. They are unsure how she was infected.

Edit for probable source of infection:

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And the woman in her 80s is the MOTHER-IN-LAW of the male taxi driver who tested positive for the COVID-19 in Tokyo.

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VaultingChemist said:

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This woman never visited China. They are unsure how she was infected.

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Wonder if it can be transmitted by birds possibly?

Another general practice clinic closed in the UK...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-deaths-in-china-pass-1300-with-jump-in-cases-live-news

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North London GP surgery closed due to coronavirus

A notice on the website of Ritchie Street Health Centre, in Islington, says

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Practice is closed until 14/02/2020 due to the coronavirus. Any patients that have the symptoms should call 111 and not come to the practice.

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London announced its first case of coronavirus on Wednesday, after a woman presented at Lewisham hospital in south London with symptoms.
It is unclear whether this new case is connected with the closure of the GP surgery.

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erudite said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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This woman never visited China. They are unsure how she was infected.

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Wonder if it can be transmitted by birds possibly?

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It is more likely that she came in contact with an infected person.

Something to think about:

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Wuhan Jan 9th, first death, infection at the time 40.

Japan first death, infection number 32 (not including cruise passenger)

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District in Hubei Announces 'Wartime Regulation'
Health officials in Zhangwan, a district in the city of Shiyan in Hubei province, announced on Wednesday eight measures to enforce "wartime regulation" of the district. The measures take effect at midnight on Thursday for at least 14 days.

One measure calls for "complete seal-off management" of all buildings. Except for medical personnel, health officials, and people in the sectors of water, electricity, telecommunications, and basic living necessities, all others are forbidden from entering and leaving these buildings.

As part of the "wartime regulation," government officials are in charge of buying living necessities, including drugs, for local residents.

All cars, with the exception of medical vehicles, police cars, firefighting vehicles, trucks, and government vehicles, will be forbidden from going in and out of local residential areas.

People will be detained for trying to enter any sealed-off areas.

All members of the Chinese Communist Party are also told they should "unconditionally obey" the orders given by the government officials at local villages and residences.

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