Published today...not yet peer-reviewed. Authors are all affiliated with the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

Quote:

---

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

---

Full PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

They are already starting to take this off the news cycle - and CNBC is already calling a decline in the disease - the news media bows down to "keep the stock market at highs policy"

No one can tell us what is coming out of China right now

With regards to the SO2 levels. Looks like Wuhan has a steel plant that is one of the biggest in the world. With zero air pollution control systems, it's not shocking to see these kinds of numbers. I did not know Wuhan had a steel plant this large so I was wrong earlier. SO2 is also a function of coal power and China uses coal power for damn near everything.

Here is some real time data from the 9th that shows nothing abnormal.

Homeland Security Coronaviurs Round Table Live Now

Julie Gerbending, MD:

Quote:

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I dont think there has ever been a greater containment in all of human history than what China has done for this virus...certainly unprecedented in my view....The question is will it work and can we contain it?
Homeland Security Coronavirus Round Table...going on now.

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JJMt said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Bingo. It is nice to see that our government is taking steps toward prevention of outbreaks.

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Exactly. I am pleasantly surprised and encouraged at how quickly, proactively and well our government has reacted to this outbreak. Has it and will it make mistakes? Of course, but overall it has done a great job so far.

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I agree for the most part but we are not completely out of the woods yet. There are lots of unknowns with the virus' incubation period and how it spreads outside of China.

Plus the financial minefield still needs to navigated. China doesn't look like its going to get back to full speed for at least a few weeks to a couple months. Money printing has kept the markets floating but at what point do (if ever) economic realities set in for companies dependent on the Chinese supply chain?


So far so good, long way to go to before we can spike the football.

Singapore's Prime Minster's Office:

"If the numbers keep growing, at somepoint we will have to reconsider our strategy. If the virus is widespread, it is futile to try to trace every contact. If we still hospitalize and isolate every suspect case, our hospitals will be overwhelmed. At that point, provided the fatality rate stays low like flu, we should shift our approach. Encourage those who only have mild symptoms to see their family GP, and rest at home instead of going to the hospital. And let hospitals and healthcare workeres focus on the most vulnerable patients, the elderly, young children, and those with medical complications. We're not at that point yet, It might or may not happen, but we are thinking ahead, and anticipating the next few steps. And I am sharing these possibilities with you, so that we are all mentally prepared for what may come"

gonemaroon said:

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They are already starting to take this off the news cycle - and CNBC is already calling a decline in the disease - the news media bows down to "keep the stock market at highs policy"

No one can tell us what is coming out of China right now

---

Or it could actually be declining. The horror

https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-19-people-who-might-have-coronavirus-diagnosed-2020-2

Quote:

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Researchers from Imperial College London calculated in a new report that for every one person who has been tested and diagnosed with the coronavirus in Wuhan, 18 others likely have the infection but are going untested and undiagnosed.

The analysis, released Monday, is based on estimates of the rate of infection in cases outside of mainland China. The researchers looked at roughly 750 passengers who traveled from Wuhan back to their home countries on government-arranged flights. Upon their return, the travelers were all kept in isolation and tested for the coronavirus immediately; many were diagnosed, some of whom didn't present any symptoms.

The researchers applied the incidence of infection calculated in those situations to the population of Wuhan.

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lunchbox said:

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Published today...not yet peer-reviewed. Authors are all affiliated with the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

Quote:

---

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

---

Full PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

---

R0 between 4.7 and 6.6.....decreased to 2.3 to 3.0 by control measures in China.

Quote:

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We estimated that the exponential growth rate is decreased to 0.14 per day (CI: 0.12 to 0.15 per day) since January 30. Based on this growth rate and an R0 between 4.7 to 6.6 before the control measures, a calculation following the formula in Ref. (14) suggested that a growth rate decreasing from 0.29 per day to 0.14 per day translates to a 50%-59% decrease in R0 to between 2.3 to 3.0. This is in agreement with previous estimates of the impact of effective social distancing during 1918 influenza pandemic (18). Thus, the reduction in growth rate may reflect the impact of vigorous control measures implemented and individual behavior changes in China during the course of the outbreak.

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Prediction:

Quote:

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If the value of R0 is as high in other countries, our results suggest that active and strong population-wide social distancing efforts, such as closing down transportation system, schools, discouraging travel, etc., might be needed to reduce the overall contacts to contain the spread of the virus.

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You'd have to believe China's data in order to believe this - and the fact they are walking around like it's m'fing Chernobyl doesn't give me the warm fuzzies yet.

But sure, anything could be correct.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/russians-flee-virus-quarantine-dismay-hospitals-68933917

Two Russian women escape quarantine. This sounds very much like a grade B movie plot.

Quote:

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One patient jumped out of a hospital window to escape her quarantine and another managed to break out by disabling an electronic lock.

Two Russian women who were kept in isolation for possible inflection by a new virus say they fled from their Russian hospitals this month because of uncooperative doctors, poor conditions and fear they would become infected. Russian health authorities haven't commented on their complaints.

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ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Apologies in advance for what is probably a redundant question:

What do the experts on virology/infectious disease/etc. recommend having in your possession to prevent or help deal with a potential outbreak?

I'm not really that concerned but have two little kids and don't mind being over-prepared. What would be a good starter kit?

Gloves
Antibacterial hand sanitizers
Masks
Bleach
Water
Medicine?
Antioxidants or any immune boosters?

Genuine question and sorry for the derail

---

Be diligent about washing your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Stay away from sick people.

That's it.

https://patch.com/georgia/atlanta/200-georgians-self-quarantine-watch-coronavirus-signs

Quote:

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Nearly 200 Georgia residents who have recently traveled to China are self-monitoring for symptoms of the deadly new coronavirus, state health officials said Tuesday.

The residents are under self-quarantine, which allows them to stay at home for two weeks, the period experts say is needed to develop the disease. So far, no one in Georgia has shown any symptoms of the virus, officials said.

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F this, the virus discovered in brazil with 64 unknown genes is the real killer.

nortex97 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Be diligent about washing your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Stay away from sick people.

That's it.

---

Also, don't have unprotected sex with farm or wild animals, per WHO. Yes, seriously.

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But can we eat bats?

Insert crockadile dundy meme -

Nah, needs salt

lunchbox said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Be diligent about washing your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Stay away from sick people.

That's it.

---

Also, don't have unprotected sex with farm or wild animals, per WHO. Yes, seriously.

---

But can we eat bats?

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Sure, just cook them past medium-rare and you should be okay.

nortex97 said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

ttha_aggie_09 said:

---

Apologies in advance for what is probably a redundant question:

What do the experts on virology/infectious disease/etc. recommend having in your possession to prevent or help deal with a potential outbreak?

I'm not really that concerned but have two little kids and don't mind being over-prepared. What would be a good starter kit?

Gloves
Antibacterial hand sanitizers
Masks
Bleach
Water
Medicine?
Antioxidants or any immune boosters?

Genuine question and sorry for the derail

---

Be diligent about washing your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Stay away from sick people.

That's it.

---

Also, don't have unprotected sex with farm or wild animals, per WHO. Yes, seriously.

---

So what you're telling me is, to expect a spike of cases in Lubbock?

Can someone recommend a brand of anti viral hand sanitizer?

Rapier108 said:

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Zemira said:

---

Didn't we see this last week and were told those calculations were bunk?

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It has been brought up at least 3 times, and people with actual experience in the field of emissions have said it is crap given the numerous other causes for SO2 emissions and the regular high pollution levels in Wuhan.

All the DailyMail is doing is reporting on what people are various websites think about the article on Windy.com.

---

This is what SO2 levels have been before the outbreak
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/chinas-sulfur-dioxide-emissions-drop-indias-grow-over-last-decade

VaultingChemist said:

---

Beat the Hell said:

---

I'm pretty sure liquidations that size are planned well in advance. Like before we knew this was even a thing.

---

They are pre-planned, but Bezos sold about $1 billion total each year in 2016 and 2017. This is 4 times those amounts. Coincidental timing?

---

Definitely not a coincidence.
"Coincidences are when The Cabal works a miracle and chooses to remain anonymous."

Definitely it's that, as a member of the elite Cabal, he helped plan a massive global murder-by-contagion scheme which would devalue his corporate interests by billions of dollars. And so he's just planning ahead and turning business valuation into cash, not that cash is going to be meaningful in one month when The Cabal's plan is fully realized and the virus crashes the world economy. Bezos doesn't actually plan to spend the cash, but he and The Cabal know that their plan means the global supply chain for toilet paper is about to take a hit, and so they are stocking up on billions of dollars to be able wipe their asses after they crash the globe.




Or, it could be, bear with me here, a coincidence.

Believe whatever you want.

Critical thinking is something severely lacking in society today, and especially on this thread.

OldArmy71 said:

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Can someone recommend a brand of anti viral hand sanitizer?

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Purell Advanced. 70% ethyl alcohol.

Bill Gates is a more the type of person to want to depopulate the earth. He has said as much.

Rapier108 said:

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Believe whatever you want.

Critical thinking is something severely lacking in society today, and especially on this thread.

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What belief am I stating when I simply post a link of what the levels were seen to be a few years ago?

It's just data.

Some levity amongst the fear-mongering

OK, good, thanks. I appreciate it.

Lot of stocks near yesterdays resistance tops. It's like watching the cars pull up to the starting line before the flag drops.