So not really coronavirus related but since it was brought up on this thread earlier I picked up and am reading The Hot Zone.

I'm about a 25% through it and it's fascinating stuff.

Ebola ain't nothing to fck with.

Ag_07 said:

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So not really coronavirus related but since it was brought up on this thread earlier I picked up and am reading The Hot Zone.

I'm about a 25% through it and it's fascinating stuff.

Ebola ain't nothing to fck with.

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Think I've run through it 2 or 3 times. Such a great tale.

So, far from being a doom and gloom end of the world person, I have concerns. Just this morning the radio reported that in Bexar County an undocumented number of people have placed themselves into "Self Quarantine". These folks have traveled to China recently and are outside the folks who are at Lackland.

I don't necessarily trust the "Self Quarantine". If my wife, son, and I are at home and they want something from the store, you can bet my ass is going to the store to get it. Especially if I am not showing symptoms. I am not in favor of draconian measures, but I don't think that what is currently being done is sufficient.

My family is in good health. My one concern is that my son was diagnosed with Neutropina (SP) when he was young. We and the Dr's thought it was Leukemia at first, but finally figured out it wasn't. The Oncologists dismissed him at 5 yrs old and that was it. He is as strong as an Ox at 11 yrs old, but I am concerned that something like this could affect him. I work in San Antonio and I am regularly around a lot of folks. My wife is a teacher. Obviously, my son is a student and athlete who is making contact with kids everyday in athletics.

We can't just not go to work or school. We live in Atascosa County, but I travel back and forth every day. Plenty of bullets and guns, just don't want to bring something back to them.

PearlJammin said:

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We need more China stories.

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so many. its a weird, weird place.

This stat boggles my mind: Since 2002 when the SARs outbreak happened, annual travel in China is up FOUR times. A country that massive that has changed that much in less than 20 years is hard to believe.

And now China has 1 million nationals working in Africa, a continent that has woefully inept medical infrastructure. And this outbreak happened right around the Chinese New Year when Chinese travel is at it's highest.

This stuff is at least as infectious as the flu yet 20 times as deadly.

What could possibly go wrong?

carl spacklers hat said:

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Not that the numbers out of that regime would have any meaning but North Korea has the potential to be a total shiite show. I can't help but wonder where that country is right now given their massive trade and tourism relationship with China. I read their border is closed, but...if the virus is already in-country, and I assume it is, all bets are off.

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Except for a wild-card. North Korea is willing to go to lengths, and could even totally hide it, that even China probably could not do. Look at how dark they are at night from satellite photos. Its not exactly a place where unsanctioned information of any kind--including confusing videos and tweets- -- gets out of much. If they had to take the most drastic measures of all -- nothing is there to stop them.

All A&M said:

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I think worst-case scenario, if the virus isn't contained, is we lose 3-6% of the world population (like the 1918 Influenza pandemic). We are all hoping this thing is contained.

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The world population back then was 1.8 billion and the death toll was estimated to be between 50 and 70 million in 18 months. It spread because of soldiers returning home from WWI.

Now we have instant travel (relatively speaking) and a world population of 7.8 billion.

I don't think it's possible that it will be contained. That's what I keep hearing from the experts but maybe they're wrong this time.

carl spacklers hat said:

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Not that the numbers out of that regime would have any meaning but North Korea has the potential to be a total shiite show. I can't help but wonder where that country is right now given their massive trade and tourism relationship with China. I read their border is closed, but...if the virus is already in-country, and I assume it is, all bets are off.

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I think considering their incredible poverty I doubt travel is very high between population centers.

Maybe they will be one of the lucky ones.

The recovery vs fatality numbers are alarming. Those are the only cases with final outcomes documented. The rest are in progress to one of those ends.

We can only hope they have undercounted recoveries by having not tested most actual persons infected due to mild symptoms.

Another good video from this instructor/health care worker in the UK. As I have said before he is pretty evidence based and not selling anything. Summary, he is not seeing much good news.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The recovery vs fatality numbers are alarming. Those are the only cases with final outcomes documented. The rest are in progress to one of those ends.

We can only hope they have undercounted recoveries by having not tested most actual persons infected due to mild symptoms.

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I recall seeing a leak from a Taiwan infectious disease doctor early on that said the fatality rate they were hearing from Chinese colleagues was around 25%.

These numbers seem to validate that, which is concerning to say the least.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The recovery vs fatality numbers are alarming. Those are the only cases with final outcomes documented. The rest are in progress to one of those ends.

We can only hope they have undercounted recoveries by having not tested most actual persons infected due to mild symptoms.

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The "recovery" number may be misleading as you are alluding. In another account, I see the number of 3996 as discharged from the hospital. One may even be a confirmed case whose symptoms are too mild to require hospitalization.

I sort of think a bunch will be infected, but I don't think it will be fatal for more than a handful.

BBRex said:

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I sort of think a bunch will be infected, but I don't think it will be fatal for more than a handful.

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Are you referring to the US only? If not you are predicting the past, already 43k+ positive tests and 1k+ deaths.

JJMt said:

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I think that Shanked is right. I believe that I've read that experts sent in by the WHO have found that 85% of the cases in China can be classified as mild.

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It's pretty much the flu (a mild disease regularly), and the flu can sometimes turn into pneumonia, and people die from pneumonia. Those that have complicating factors and/or are elderly or very young are more at risk just like pneumonia.

The only difference with this coronavirus is that it's new. There isn't a vaccine for it so it's more likely that if you come into contact with it that you'll become infected to a degree.

Don't let the scare mongers tell you different.

rgag12 said:

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JJMt said:

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I think that Shanked is right. I believe that I've read that experts sent in by the WHO have found that 85% of the cases in China can be classified as mild.

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It's pretty much the flu, and the flu can sometimes turn into pneumonia, and people die from pneumonia. Those that have complicating factors and/or are elderly or very young are more at risk just like pneumonia.

The only difference with this coronavirus is that it's new. There isn't a vaccine for it so it's more likely that if you come into contact with it that you'll become infected to a degree.

Don't let the scare mongers tell you different.

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Umm the death rate of this and how contagious it is seems to put it at or above a Spanish flu level of danger..

TAMUallen said:

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rgag12 said:

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JJMt said:

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I think that Shanked is right. I believe that I've read that experts sent in by the WHO have found that 85% of the cases in China can be classified as mild.

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It's pretty much the flu, and the flu can sometimes turn into pneumonia, and people die from pneumonia. Those that have complicating factors and/or are elderly or very young are more at risk just like pneumonia.

The only difference with this coronavirus is that it's new. There isn't a vaccine for it so it's more likely that if you come into contact with it that you'll become infected to a degree.

Don't let the scare mongers tell you different.

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Umm the death rate of this and how contagious it is seems to put it at or above a Spanish flu level of danger.

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Death rate is unknown currently and probably still would be unknown at this point, even if you had every shred of data the commies are privy to. Cruise ship should give us a great idea because the numerator and denominator to calculate death rate will be known within a very small margin of error.

I'm seeing more and more that this will be a siege more so than blitzkrieg. Which is honestly a good thing.

If we were seeing flare ups of a couple hundred in random locations, I'd be ****ting a brick.

Yes, I mean in the U.S. It seems like this will eventually be like chicken pox, where everyone has either had the vaccine or had the illness.

Just a FYI, the case in San Diego is from one of the people the US government evacuated from China.

San Diego County Has First Coronavirus Case

Quote:

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A botched test result sent a coronavirus evacuee back to the hospital Monday after initially being told by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that they were in the clear.

The situation is detailed in a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health Monday evening, which says that all four quarantine patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC shared with caregivers that coronavirus tests came back negative.

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Quote:

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The university said that it also has received another patient with possible coronavirus symptoms, bringing the total hospitalized out of Miramar quarantine to eight

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Quote:

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The two patients currently in isolation units at UCSD facilities are said to be "doing well" with "minimal symptoms."
It was not immediately clear what route the infected evacuee took out of the university hospital nor which of UCSD's two main medical centers was involved. It also was not clear how long the infected evacuee was circulating inside quarantine after being told they tested negative.
A total of 232 American citizens and their family members are currently serving 14-day government-mandated quarantines after arriving on base last week. They are staying at two cordoned-off buildings, a small hotel and a single-room occupancy quarters for officers, and have no contact with base personnel.

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It appears that the 14-day quarantine will have to be reset.

Surprised it took the Chinese government this long to find a scapegoat

WHO Press Conference

My apologizes, I feel so silly but I realized my live feed cut off to soon.
Other points:

How concerned are you about "super spreaders", how concerned are you of upcoming conferences and super spreaders
- way to early and much of an exaggeration to say that the Singapore conference was a super spreader event. The Singapore conference cluster has 12 cases associated with it. Always a concern when large gatherings, but you can't shut down the world either. Managed risks need to be handled appropriately.

Question on the officials going in- where are they going? the timeline? How many people?

• advanced team already there
• The rest of the team will join later, around 10-15 people, aiming for 10
• They will have a plan based on the discussion of their counterparts (what to visit, when to visit, where to focus, what kind of issues. These are experienced people that know what to do.

What are their priorities? Will they go to Wuhan?

• Same answer as above. They are fully empowered and we don't want to treat them as messengers but as experts.
• Will be the best experts in China and the World to exchange info. Step back and let the scientists do the work.

Tomorrow's conference is a big gathering - identify what we know, what are the gaps, what are the priorities, most needed, etc. Products, finances, equitable access to all
They should be free to say whatever they want to say, but we want them to focus on science and not politics.
This is a common enemy. Focus on it, as it attacks any human being. See the threat against one humanity.

Small cases can not be a guarantee, every infection starts from one, so it could spark a bigger bigger fire. We need to use the window of time now. If you compare the # of cases in China and the rest of the world (319 cases), this is only a window of oppurtunity. We should work hard as one human race to fight this virus before it gets out of control.

High level meetings before : Focus on 3 things
1. Strategy, focus on the source , take measures at the epicenter
2. send in experts
3. share info

We have to make sure we attack at the source of all new locations of cases

Incubation period could be longer after newer studies (from 14 days to up to 24), will quarantine time be extended?

• Incubation periods need to be studied. Long incubation could be double exposure. Gave examples with Ebola. They are outliers. Careful when looking at those. Median is actually 5 days, the 24 days is an outlier. Take seriously, but in context of all studies.

Reports of China changing people who are positive with no symptoms will not be counted as confirmed cases. Is that why the numbers are lowering.

• We are not aware of that change, we will check it out obviously, but we are not aware of any significant change to the case definitions. Sounds strange.

*I should also note, I'm just putting this out here because I know lots of people don't have time to listen to the press conference, and some of the questions are interesting. You seem to get a feel for what they are dodging, what questions they are anticipating and those that seem to catch them unguarded - the last one about the reporting change on numbers for confirmed cases did seem to surprise them.

Sine poena nulla lex.

My buddy thinks President Chi has departed this life due to corona virus

I'm kind of surprised that we haven't heard any news from Africa....as in no infections in that continent (or did I miss it).

If it gets to Africa, that's going to be a **** show!