JJxvi said:

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There is a good chance that's what happened in the last couple weeks is not exactly what anybody who has posted "It's a math problem" in this thread had in mind.

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I just am not sure how you came to this reasoning. I sure as **** dont believe there has only been 1000 deaths. I think that number is much closer to 40000. I'm not calmed by watching people jump to their deaths or getting shoved in boxes by people in full hazmat suits, but hey it's getting better bc the MSM says so right? Thank God they're trustworthy!

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136 cases confirmed on board Japan cruise ship

There are 66 newly confirmed coronavirus cases aboard the Diamond Princess ship docked in Yokohama, according to an announcement just made by the ship's captain Stefano Ravera. That brings the total number of cases on the ship to 136, nearly doubling the previous total of 70 confirmed cases yesterday.

Ravera cautioned that this does not mean that the quarantine is not working. "It was not unexpected, the additional cases, involving individuals exposed prior to the start of the quarantine," he said. Japanese authorities are still testing hundreds of passengers on board the ship, which has been stuck at the harbor south of the capital Tokyo for almost a week now.

Evidence is increasingly pointing to a full blown outbreak on board the ship, the largest outside of mainland China, where the vast majority of cases have been reported until now.

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Today in a mall down the street from me. I noticed that the nearby hospital is now starting to build a large tent in front of their emergency room.

Need to make my way over to Tanglin mall

You're welcome

I lived in Sing a while in 2015. Where are you at there?

There are people wanting to get off of that ship, however, they have to realize that they are under quarantine and it's no longer their choice until the situation has stabilized... you get on a ship and something like this happens you have to realize it's for the protection of the rest of the people.. having all those new cases just confirms this situation is far from being under control.

The American honeymooners want off ... but it ain't gonna happen until things are better.

New study on 2019-nCoV. Not your typical flu.

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Patients

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Key Points
Question What are the clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China?
Findings In this single-center case series involving 138 patients with NCIP, 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit and 4.3% died. Presumed human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients.
Meaning In this case series in Wuhan, China, NCIP was frequently associated with presumed hospital-related transmission, 26% of patients required intensive care unit treatment, and mortality was 4.3%.

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When the hospital workers are being infected at such high levels, it is a strong indicator of how transmissible this virus is.

So the virus is airborne and can live on surfaces for up to 7 days.

Unless China stays locked down for months there's no preventing spread

Mucho austin said:

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Will do. Post the address and we will meet you there

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Come on over bud. Got plenty.


6528 N Lamar Blvd Austin

BowSowy said:

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So a question for Mr.Infectuous, Vaulting Chemist, and all of those who tend towards a global disaster - it's been 4 weeks since this thread was started, been about two weeks since major governments have restricted travel from China. We haven't seen any major outbreaks outside of China, right? Outside of cruise ships which are an obvious situation for quick infection.

At what point do y'all start to concede this is a contained situation in the developed world? Put China's situation aside.

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Your dates are not accurate

A real bubble-boy

Thank you for your concern. Trust me I'm fine. I've been talking to family and friends about this. We all agree there is a time to take more drastic actions but now is not the time. We are all in a holding pattern allowing events to dictate next steps. I'm doing all the normal things in my life as I would if I didn't have my eye on this. Still working, still paying bills.etc.


Allow me to extend the same concern your way, IMO your lack of understanding/willful ignorance of what is occurring in China and the rest world puts you in a bad position as this story develops.

Preparing for a possible outcome is simple risk management.

- We know there is an extremely dangerous viral illness crisis in China (that should be evident by their actions and those of Govts around the world).
- we can safely assume the Chinese are overwhelmed and trying to deal with it. However their reported numbers simply don't match their actions. How can you accurately report when your inundated with patients?
-All the evidence indicates that the virus is very easily spread via surfaces and direct contact. (See the French ski chalet and cruise ship stories)
- the incubation period is anywhere from 5 to 24 days. (24 days reported from study released today. No confirmation on that yet) AND the carrier is infectious during the incubation period.
- there is no herd immunity to this. Humans haven't been in contact with this....ever.

I could go on, you should see the point I'm making.

We are just getting started on this story (less than 30 days in). It's going to play out over the next year or two....

By doing nothing and ignoring the potential threat now, you put yourself in a position that will require extreme actions to find relative safety later. Even worse, you will become a burden on others in your community should this threat come home to roost.

As I've been saying all along, it's not just the virus, it's the economics and panic that are associated with the virus that are the bigger issues.


I'm not saying quit your job and find a bunker. All I'm suggesting is use this time of relative calm to get prepared (how you see fit) for a time of potential turmoil.

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Based on what I'm reading elsewhere, that probably means that the mortality rate of the coronavirus (NCoV) is less than the 4.3% that they calculated.

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Maybe. Lots of bad news in that article. The virus is highly transmissible in hospitals. Hopefully we won't have that problem in the U.S. Also, if 26% of hospitalized patients require ICU, then it can overwhelm any country's healthcare system.

black_hat_ag said:

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Mucho austin said:

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Will do. Post the address and we will meet you there

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Come on over bud. Got plenty.


6528 N Lamar Blvd Austin

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haha. I have a client near there. Not exactly a germ free enviro.

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Shanghai, Chongqing also locked down as Wuhan virus spreads

Shanghai follows Beijing and goes into lockdown to fight spread of Wuhan virus

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) After Beijing announced it was going into lockdown to try and contain the Wuhan virus on Sunday (Feb. 9), Shanghai on Monday (Feb. 10) followed suit and said it is also implementing "closed-off management" () measures for communities in the city.

On Monday morning, the Shanghai city government announced that "closed community management" () has been implemented in the metropolis' 13,000 residential complexes. It added that most of these communities have also implemented tight restrictions on entering and exiting their facilities

Shanghai joins three other top tier Chinese cities that have gone into lockdown mode, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing. According to CCTV News, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government held a news conference on the prevention and control of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) at the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention (SCDC). During the press conference, Zhu Qinhao (), director-general of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, confirmed that most of the city's 13,000 residential communities had implemented the "closed community management" measures and entrance and exit restrictions.

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[url] https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874064[/url]

Only story I've seen on this. Anyone have confirmation?

Absolutely not.

Norovirus and others spread rapidly on a cruise ship due to confined spaces and densely packed people.

It would be similar to the choices you mentioned if they were confined to their dorm or apartment building and common areas, with 1 recess of outside access for 6 hours every other day , plus you would have to make them all eat together.

Comparing a cruise ship to a college or town, is useless as they aren't comparable.

Lived all over the island the past 10 years... Scotts road, delta road, Robertson quay (river gate), east coast, and now sentosa cove for the past 4 years

many filter masks at airport Monday am... only little old white ladies wearing...not sure where this data point fits.

Everyone is going have different circumstances and abilities and you won't be able to prepare for every contingency.

Start w the basics, food, water, shelter and protection/security.

And most importantly, build a support network in your community. Communicate with others you trust. Family members are a good resource (for the most part...)

We are the biggest fraternity in the world, help is always nearby

black_hat_ag said:

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Mucho austin said:

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Will do. Post the address and we will meet you there

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Come on over bud. Got plenty.


6528 N Lamar Blvd Austin

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Woooo woo. When's the meet up? Did I miss it?

Part of the reason that numbers may not be increasing.

Isn't China ending the stay home order for factories? I thought most (maybe outside quarantine zones) were supposed to return to work today.

Sid said:

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We are just getting started on this story (less than 30 days in). It's going to play out over the next year or two....

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Smart of you too change your doom prophecy window from days until US cities melt down to a couple of years. When prophets are shown to be wrong by the world not ending, their followers melt away.

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Bookmarked. Proclaiming victory after 5 minutes in the first quarter is not smart.

VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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Based on what I'm reading elsewhere, that probably means that the mortality rate of the coronavirus (NCoV) is less than the 4.3% that they calculated.

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Maybe. Lots of bad news in that article. The virus is highly transmissible in hospitals. Hopefully we won't have that problem in the U.S. Also, if 26% of hospitalized patients require ICU, then it can overwhelm any country's healthcare system.

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That 4.3% also doesn't include the "suspected" cases where no tests were performed...and a big reason for that is that they either died away from the hospitals or before tests could be carried out.

Like another poster mentioned above, I am waiting to see what happens in the next few days with the cluster of infected from the chalet in the French Alps.