Shanked again.....

Shanked Punt said:

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I'm still waiting on the huge spike of cases outside of China to be concerned at all about this. That just does not appear to be happening at all.

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Shanked isn't worried, and based on he/she/it's record, that should cause grave concern...

j/k - don't get all bent outta shape.

One thing I've learned from this thread is I need to step up my toilet paper game! Time to get cracking, so to speak . . .

Mr.Infectious said:

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Shanked again.....

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Cruise ship? Yeah, pick a location where a bunch of people are in close quarters with no where to go. And again, its just 10. Good grief, that isn't even a blip on the radar.

Shanked Punt said:

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Cruise ship? Yeah, pick a location where a bunch of people are in close quarters with no where to go. And again, its just 10. Good grief, that isn't even a blip on the radar.

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I normally don't snipe at people on TA but I just cannot let this go.

Were you asleep in math when they taught what an exponential function and more importantly exponential growth looks like?

So they have a dead person on life support? How long are they going to do that?!

mathguy86 said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Cruise ship? Yeah, pick a location where a bunch of people are in close quarters with no where to go. And again, its just 10. Good grief, that isn't even a blip on the radar.

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I normally don't snipe at people on TA but I just cannot let this go.

Were you asleep in math when they taught what an exponential function and more importantly exponential growth looks like?

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username checks out. But don't feed the troll,

20 isn't a big deal but 20 out of 100 tested is for an infectious disease.

Q: What do a cruise ship and a nursing home, a Navy destroyer, a homeless camp under a bridge, a college dorm, a military barracks, a slum in Mexico all have in common?


A: dense populations with frequent interactions/contact between the people.



Starting to see the big picture yet?

TAMUallen said:

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So they have a dead person on life support? How long are they going to do that?!

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Maybe hes only MOSTLY dead.

VaultingChemist said:

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Hope this works.

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Yeah and they are basically trying to steal the drug while they are at it.

Chinese scientists ask for patent on US drug to fight virus
JOE McDONALD and LINDA A. JOHNSON
Associated PressFebruary 5, 2020, 10:57 PM CST
[url=https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-scientists-ask-patent-us-045728414.html#][/url]

FILE - This Thursday, March 12, 2009, file photo shows Gilead Sciences Inc. headquarters in Foster City, Calif. Scientists in the city at the center of China's virus outbreak have applied to patent a drug made by U.S. company Gilead Science Inc. to treat the disease, possibly fueling more of the conflict over technology policy that helped trigger Washington's tariff war with Beijing. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, File)More
BEIJING (AP) Scientists in the city at the center of China's virus outbreak have applied to patent a drug made by U.S. company Gilead Sciences Inc. to treat the disease, possibly fueling conflict over technology policy that helped trigger Washington's tariff war with Beijing.
The government-run Wuhan Institute of Virology said this week it applied for the patent in January along with a military laboratory. An institute statement acknowledged there are "intellectual property barriers" but said it acted to "protect national interests."
Granting its own scientists a patent might give the Chinese government leverage in negotiations over paying for the drug. But it also might fuel complaints Beijing abuses its regulatory system to pressure foreign companies to hand over valuable technology.
On Thursday, the official Xinhua News Agency said clinical trials of the drug, remdesivir, were due to start.
Gilead, headquartered in Foster City, California, said it applied in 2016 for a Chinese patent on use of remdesivir against coronaviruses and is waiting for a decision. The coronavirus family includes the novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, blamed for the outbreak in Wuhan.
"Gilead has no influence over whether a patent office issues a patent to the Chinese researchers," said a company spokesman, Ryan McKeel. "Their application has been filed more than three years after Gilead's filing and will be considered in view of what is already known about the compound and pending patent applications."
The institute said its application was filed Jan. 21. Two days later, Chinese authorities suspended most access to Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. That lockdown has expanded to surrounding cities and some in other provinces, isolating a total of about 60 million people in the most sweeping anti-disease measures ever imposed.
China has the right under World Trade Organization rules to declare an emergency and compel a company to license a patent to protect the public. It would be required to pay a license fee that is deemed fair market value.
The government might be able to avoid that fee if the patent were granted to the Wuhan institute, part of the elite Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The institute said it applied for a "use patent" that specifies the Wuhan virus as the drug's target. Gilead's patent application, filed before the virus was identified, cites only the overall family of coronaviruses.
The Chinese researchers made their patent application "from the perspective of protecting national interests," said the institute statement.
"If relevant foreign companies plan to contribute to China's epidemic prevention and control, we both agree that if the state needs it, we will not require enforcement of rights given by the patent," it said.
Gillead said last week it was working with U.S. and Chinese health authorities on studying remdesivir. The company said it has provided the drug for emergency use in a small number of patients with the Wuhan virus "in the absence of any approved treatment options."

scottimus said:

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20200206 - 1202CST Scottimus Scale


(-50) Apocalyptic------------------------------V--------------------0--------------------------------------------------Absolutely (50)

50 Dashes Each Way, 0 = Reasonable Action/Concern
Currently: -20 from 0 (reasonability), --70 from Absolutely nothing, +30 from Apocalyptic.

I am open to edits and other interpretations.

Current "Ticks"

Novel Corona Virus = -5
90,000,000 People Quarantined (9%) of population = -9
Large Scale "Hospitals" in Public Venues = -5
Funeral Homes (Wuhan) Looking for Body Bags = -1


Things are moving quite quickly......

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I would still have a low negative number for economic impact that you could slide greater as the impact grows.

2 hrs , less than Dallas to B/CS. SE of Beijing. Major port city for the north.

Edit: It's around 250km so ~190 miles.

No, no, no....

At current ratios: 28,000 China / 12 USA cases...doing the math (28,000/12)=(X/1,000), X=2,333,333 cases in China.

Thus far, China has quarantined 90,000,000 for 28,0000 cases...again using current ratios (90,000,000/28,000)=(X/2,333,333), X=7,499,998,928 people being quarantined....which is not possible since they only have 1 billion people.

Basically I would argue 1,000 US cases would be apocalyptic numbers on my scale....

scottimus said:

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No, no, no....

At current ratios: 28,000 China / 12 USA cases...doing the math (28,000/12)=(X/1,000), X=2,333,333 cases in China.

Thus far, China has quarantined 90,000,000 for 28,0000 cases...again using current ratios (90,000,000/28,000)=(X/2,333,333), X=7,499,998,928 people being quarantined....which is not possible since they only have 1 billion people.

Basically I would argue 1,000 US cases would be apocalyptic numbers on my scale....

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I saw somewhere (and I've been trying to find it again) that the tipping point number for any other country is 256.

What percentage of their market have they lost since this started?

I think that could provide the best "normalized" approach to scaling markets in China.

Rock1982 said:

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No one cares what you think.

You are the number one troll on TexAgs, and add nothing here.

Staff When are you going to make this guy disappear?

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You as soon as they ban him, he or another troll will pop back up.

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/06/content_5475074.htm
For immediate release: Xinhua news.
Ministry of Commerce has issued directive titled "In regards to economic difficulties substained by major and critical industries (due to the Novel virus)"
Due to impacts of Wuhan virus on our country's economy, in order to minimize economical losses, ministry of commerce orders all textile, light industry, Minerals (and oil), food and agriculture, mechanical and eletrical, healthcare and the other 6 major industries to provide for the execution of judical requisition, legal protections, logistics, and other critical services.

The chamber of commerce will provide all available assistance in fulfilling these objectives.

Okay can you translate that into American English?

All manufacturing will serve the needs of govt first.

IT's already translated.
But tl;dr.
Government is getting ready to seize assets and redirect them for use. Think the ATC strike under Reagan if major industries cannot remain open.

Specifically it means to requisition the equipment of textiles and light industry to minimize disruption of exports and logistics to combating the epidemic (eg; biohazard suits, gloves)

Not fully. In Chinese legal basis all companies fall under purview of the state. The state has the authority to nationalize any company it wishes in an emergency without compensation but MUST return ownership and pay just compensation after the "emergency".

Edit: Originally it was they didn't have to pay compensation. That happened after a dude went and murdered several government officials.

Here is google translate:

Quote:

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The notice pointed out that at present, the pneumonia epidemic of a new type of coronavirus infection in our country has caused difficulties in the normal production and operation of our foreign trade enterprises. In order to actively respond to the epidemic situation and help enterprises maintain their legitimate rights and interests and reduce economic losses, the Ministry of Commerce guided six chambers of commerce such as textiles, light industry, China Minmetals, soil, machinery and electronics, and medical insurance to make every effort to issue force majeure certificates, legal advice, Exhibit coordination, supply and demand docking and other related services.

The notice clearly states that the chambers of commerce will assist the enterprises in need to provide grave force majeure factual proof of failure to fulfill the delivery due to the epidemic situation. Chambers of Commerce will provide enterprises with necessary legal and information services in response to relevant trade restrictions due to the epidemic. The chambers of commerce will coordinate exhibition organizations at home and abroad to help companies that cannot participate in the exhibition due to the epidemic situation to properly handle paid issues and other related issues. The chambers of commerce will strengthen communication with enterprises and local governments, share information about products and services in time, and build a bridge between supply and demand.

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scottimus said:

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What percentage of their market have they lost since this started?

I think that could provide the best "normalized" approach to scaling markets in China.

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I guess I am not thinking in those terms. I am thinking of one of the largest casinos in the world being closed for 2 weeks...car plants shutting down....flights cancelled everywhere...and the toilet paper freakout of the last 3 pages.

Not to mention that China has said they will be paying the medical bills for those infected (maybe everything over a certain amount...not sure)

That being said, the Shanghai composite is down 7% since Jan 2nd.

Edit - good summary of the worldwide impacts here: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51386575

It's hard to explain...

It's basically right now a very severe warning to "step up your game or we will force you."

The language is vague if the assistance is for legal issues count to external trade or internal trade... IT makes a big difference.

Right, and you are not wrong...it is just hard to scale that.

The way I am looking at it, If they lost 100% of their market because of this, that would be apocalyptic....so any "tick" needs to have some kind of reference point to the apocalypse...lol

Same thing on the population side, if they quarantined 500,000,000 (50%) people that would be apocalyptic on my scale because I do not think there would be any coming back from that.


Also, I am trying to give 1 tick to first hand accounts (admittedly unverified) of apocalyptic stories such as morgues asking the public for body bags,,,

More like total war economic footing.

Here's a recent one
http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/06/content_5475063.htm
tl;dr
changes to current goals and standard operating procedure in response to Wuhan novel virus
1) Aerosol and digestive tract methods of transmission have yet to be identified
2)Hubei province relaxes criteria for being diagnosed as possible case
3) No effective treatment for the disease currently exists
4)Current treatment is to support respiratory capabilities of ill patients with respiratory depression. Translation: Supportive care for critically ill.
5) Amendments to strengthen the prevention of medical staff infection and infection in hospitals.


(I need someone whos a doctor to help with translating this.... Some of these come out as medical specific jargon that is hard to piece into english since its a transliteration and not a real translation.... If anyone is a doctor please do tell)
http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/05/5474791/files/de44557832ad4be1929091dcbcfca891.pdf

Hey erudite,

do you happen to know where in Wuhan this is (or where the red buildings are)? I was wanting to scout the area on Google earth, but there are so many tall building in Wuhan.

Thanks for all your expertise on this board!

Not sure we should release a patent for a drug that is being trialed with no indication of efficacy.

TexasAggie_02 said:

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Hey erudite,

do you happen to know where in Wuhan this is (or where the red buildings are)? I was wanting to scout the area on Google earth, but there are so many tall building in Wuhan.

Thanks for all your expertise on this board!

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Circled in red if that is Wuhan... I can't tell because of the lighting but it does say "Go Wuhan" in the banners.
That river should be the Yangtze river.
Most likely 3rd circle from bottom. The other side of that bridge should be sealed and I don't see an island.
Center of downtown Wuhan btw.

BTW. I am no expert.... Just know a bit more than average person.....