VaultingChemist said:

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Anyone reminded of 28 days later....

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What a beautiful clear day in Wuhan!

erudite said:

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http://www.caac.gov.cn/XWZX/MHYW/202002/t20200205_200660.html

They are flying in doctors by the jetload from the rest of China.

Non google translated version:
Feb 4-5,
CAAC has utilized it's authority to order flights of carriers including China air, East China, South China air et al. to conduct the flight of 14 planes for emergency transport of medical personnel to Wuhan. In total 15 groups with 1,418 people were flown in.
According to emergency directives of (I presume the CCDC), personel from Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hebei, Beijing, Guizhou, Henan, Qinghai, Jiling, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Xinjiang Border construction troops have been sent.

In total thirteen domestic airlines have participated in this program, and completed 59 sorties, moved 7320 personnel, and 276 tons of materials.

---

That is good news and bad news. China is trying to handle the epidemic, but the amount of personnel and materials is considerable. 7320 medical workers could oversee a lot of patients per day.

Wuhan is very humid like london. Raining half the time in that city and your clothes never dry.

VaultingChemist said:

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erudite said:

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http://www.caac.gov.cn/XWZX/MHYW/202002/t20200205_200660.html

They are flying in doctors by the jetload from the rest of China.

Non google translated version:
Feb 4-5,
CAAC has utilized it's authority to order flights of carriers including China air, East China, South China air et al. to conduct the flight of 14 planes for emergency transport of medical personnel to Wuhan. In total 15 groups with 1,418 people were flown in.
According to emergency directives of (I presume the CCDC), personel from Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hebei, Beijing, Guizhou, Henan, Qinghai, Jiling, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Xinjiang Border construction troops have been sent.

In total thirteen domestic airlines have participated in this program, and completed 59 sorties, moved 7320 personnel, and 276 tons of materials.

---

That is good news and bad news. China is trying to handle the epidemic, but the amount of personnel and materials is considerable. 7320 medical workers could oversee a lot of patients per day.

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Do be aware, much more is moved by the rail system.

Notice that there are no movement of doctors from Guangdong (the eastern half of Guangzhou where its heavily populated)? That's because I suspect that they are afraid that SARS pops back up there right now.

I expect a terrorist attack in Xinjiang by the end of the month due to the moving of Border Construction troop doctors.

Edit: The move of doctors from Qinghai and Gansu is pretty serious. That means the government is moving out resources from the Hexi corridor. Usually military stuff and people stay there unless its really bad.

No problem.

I've gotten used to living along since I have no close relatives in the US. You do try not to make friends since you know you might have to leave but such is life..
Also :http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/05/content_5474875.htm
Translation later. Sorry. Bug me in a few hours.
title: "Xi Jinping statement: (we) must utilize all strength to improve prevention and disease treatment capabilities (for the Wuhan coronavirus) by strengthening public order and legal protections.

Edit: I think they are wanting to test the legality/politics of implementing criminal punishments for those who deliberately left quarantine areas. That law was made in 2012 and I suspect it may be actually getting enforced now.

I can (google) translate:

Quote:

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Xi Jinping: comprehensively improve the ability to prevent and control according to law to provide strong legal protection for epidemic prevention and control

Xi Jinping presided over the third meeting of the Central Committee for the

Comprehensive Management of the Law and
emphasized comprehensively improving the ability to prevent and control according to law to provide strong legal protection for epidemic prevention and control
Li Keqiang Li Zhanshu Wang Huning attended

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 5th. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, State President, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Chairman of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Management of the Law according to the law, hosted the third meeting of the Central Committee for the Management of the Law and delivered an important speech on the afternoon of February 5. He emphasized that, under the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, the safety of the people's lives and physical health must always be given top priority, and efforts should be made from all aspects of legislation, law enforcement, justice, and law compliance to comprehensively improve the ability to prevent, control and govern according to law. Provide strong legal protection for epidemic prevention and control.
Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu and Wang Huning, members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and deputy directors of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Management of the State by Law, attended the meeting.
The meeting reviewed and approved the Opinions of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Management of the State on the Law on the Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infection and Pneumonia, and Effectively Safeguarding the People's Livelihood, Health and Safety, Opinions on Deepening the Comprehensive Supportive Reform of the Judicial Responsibility System, and Opinions on Strengthening the Rule of Law in Rural Areas. Opinions on Construction "," Reconsideration System Reform Plan "and Shanghai Municipality's report on promoting the construction of a business environment based on the rule of law, and on the reform of the comprehensive administrative law enforcement system.
Xi Jinping emphasized in his speech that at present, epidemic prevention and control is in a critical period, and scientific and orderly prevention and control according to law is of vital importance. The more the epidemic prevention and control is at its most strenuous, the more we must adhere to the prevention and control in accordance with the law, coordinate and advance various prevention and control work on the track of the rule of law, and ensure the smooth development of the epidemic prevention and control work.
Xi Jinping pointed out that it is necessary to improve relevant legislation for epidemic prevention and control, strengthen supporting system construction, improve punishment procedures, strengthen public safety guarantees, and establish a complete, scientific, and effective legal system for epidemic prevention and control. It is necessary to strictly implement laws and regulations on epidemic prevention and emergency response, strengthen risk assessment, make prudent decisions in accordance with the law, strictly implement prevention and control measures in accordance with the law, and resolutely prevent the spread of the epidemic. It is necessary to increase the judicial enforcement of the prevention and control of dangerous epidemics, strictly enforce the laws and regulations on the prevention and control of infectious diseases and their implementation regulations, the wildlife protection law, the animal epidemic prevention law, and emergency regulations on public health emergencies, and implement the epidemic prevention and control and Emergency measures. It is necessary to strengthen law enforcement work such as public security management, market supervision, increase the crackdown on illegal acts of violent injuries to medical staff, severely investigate and punish various illegal acts that drive up the prices of epidemic prevention supplies and people's livelihood products, and crack down on anti-epidemic prevention and control and violent injuries. Such acts as violating the law and criminal activities that undermine the prevention and control of the epidemic, such as making fake sales, fake sales, and making rumors, guarantee social stability and order. It is necessary to regulate the behavior of donations and donations according to law, and ensure that all the donated property is used for epidemic prevention and control in a timely manner. It is necessary to do a good job of reporting and publishing epidemic situations in accordance with the law, and to report the epidemic information in a timely and accurate manner in accordance with statutory content, procedures, methods, and time limits. It is necessary to strengthen guidance on the trial of related cases, deal with them in a timely manner, and settle disputes by division. It is necessary to strengthen the publicity and legal services for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation, organize grass-roots publicity and publicity for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation, guide the general public to enhance their awareness of the rule of law, and support and cooperate with the epidemic prevention and control work according to law. Legal services for epidemic prevention and control shall be strengthened, conflicts and disputes resolved during the epidemic, and effective legal assistance shall be provided to the people in need.
Xi Jinping emphasized that party committees and governments at all levels must perform their duties in accordance with the law, adhere to the rule of law and rule of law to carry out epidemic prevention and control, promote the construction of a government ruled by law in handling major emergencies, and improve the level of governance and administration according to law. Relevant departments must clarify the division of responsibilities, take the initiative to perform their duties, do a good job of task implementation, improve the level of legalization of epidemic prevention and control, and effectively protect the lives and health of the people.
The meeting pointed out that the comprehensive supporting reform of the judicial responsibility system is an important part of the reform of the judicial system, which is related to the justice, efficiency and authority of the judiciary. It is necessary to do a good job in carrying out the reform and achieve results, truly "let the adjudicators judge and the judges be responsible", improve the credibility of the judiciary, and strive to make the people feel fair and just in every judicial case. Strengthening the construction of the village under the rule of law is the basic work to implement the strategy of rural rejuvenation and promote the comprehensive rule of law. It is necessary to educate and guide the vast number of rural cadres and people to handle affairs in accordance with the law, find methods in case of problems, use problems, resolve contradictions and rely on the law, and actively promote the construction of the countryside ruled by law. It is necessary to implement the reform plan of the administrative review system, optimize the allocation of administrative review resources, advance the revision of relevant laws and regulations, give play to the advantages of a fair and efficient administrative review system, and serve the people as the main channel to resolve administrative disputes.
The meeting emphasized that insisting on administering the country comprehensively according to law is a significant advantage of the socialist state system and national governance system with Chinese characteristics. The practice of socialism with Chinese characteristics has moved forward, and the construction of the rule of law must be followed up. The socialist rule of law in our country embodies the theoretical results and practical experience of governing the country and governing the country, and it is the most basic, stable and reliable guarantee for the rule of the system. It is necessary to promote the rule of law in a comprehensive way, to play the positive role of the rule of law in the modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity, to improve the party's ability to govern the country according to law and governing power according to law, to ensure that the people are the masters of the rule, and adhere to and improve the socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics. Giving play to the role of the rule of law in guiding, standardizing, and safeguarding reform, development, and stability, building a high-quality workforce for the rule of law, and gradually realizing the institutionalization, proceduralization, standardization, and rule of law. We must adhere to the combination of top-level design and the practice of the rule of law, improve the system and mechanism to ensure the full implementation of the constitution, strengthen the supervision of the implementation of the law, improve the social fairness and justice guarantee system of the rule of law, and enhance the effectiveness of the rule of law to promote the modernization of the governance system and capacity. Leading cadres at all levels should strengthen the awareness of the rule of law, take the lead in respecting the use of law and abiding by the law, and set an example for the implementation of the system. It is necessary to increase the work of popularizing the law for the whole people, carry forward the spirit of the socialist rule of law, strengthen the concept of the rule of law for the whole people, improve the public legal service system, and consolidate the social foundation for governing the country according to law. We must adhere to the combination of administering the country according to law and administering the country by virtue, integrate core socialist values into the construction of the rule of law, and strive to form a good social fashion and social order. It is necessary to strengthen cooperation in the field of international rule of law, speed up the construction of a legal system applicable outside China's jurisdiction, strengthen the research and application of international law, and improve the level of legalization of foreign-related work.
Members of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Management of the State Affairs according to law attended the meeting, and responsible comrades from the central and state organs attended the meeting

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TLDR version?

Crossposted from the other thread. Math equation continues to predict official Chinese statistics to within 0.1%

Bobcat06 said:

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Prediction:

At 5 PM today China will release their updated case statistics. Their official reported statistics (within a very small margin of error) will be 27571 cases & 576 deaths.

If that is correct, the Chinese numbers are complete BS and it's much worse than reported.

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Official Chinese statistics:

# of Cases
Predicted = 27571
Actual = 27602
Delta = 31
% error = 0.1%

# of Deaths
Predicted = 576
Actual = 564
Delta = 12
% error = 2%

By the way, tomorrow we will have 31,649 cases and 661 deaths.

How can I predict China's reported statistics to within 0.1%?

Because all of the official Chinese statistics are BS calculated by a math formula.

I have been following this gentleman's videos since the beginning. He has been very conservative in his predictions so far, but it appears he is starting to get concerned. I believe He is a medical professional and a nursing teacher, and not selling a prosperity newsletter or prepper supplies like some of the other video makers on YouTube.

Bobcat06 said:

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Crossposted from the other thread. Math equation continues to predict official Chinese statistics to within 0.1%

Bobcat06 said:

---

Prediction:

At 5 PM today China will release their updated case statistics. Their official reported statistics (within a very small margin of error) will be 27571 cases & 576 deaths.

If that is correct, the Chinese numbers are complete BS and it's much worse than reported.

---

Official Chinese statistics:

# of Cases
Predicted = 27571
Actual = 27602
Delta = 31
% error = 0.1%

# of Deaths
Predicted = 576
Actual = 564
Delta = 12
% error = 2%

By the way, tomorrow we will have 31,649 cases and 661 deaths.

How can I predict China's reported statistics to within 0.1%?

Because all of the official Chinese statistics are BS calculated by a math formula.

---

Anyone who sees this and continues to believe the Chinese reported numbers are real is an idiot. It's literally just a formula some Chinese dude made up in excel. Truly amazing left of laziness on their part.

JJMt said:

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Why do you guys keep making posts that the Chinese data is untrustworthy? Of course it is. Has anyone indicated otherwise? This is old news.

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Because people keep posting their #'s

Eru,

Make friends anyway and do all you can to keep up with them. There are no hard feelings if you have to leave and they will invite you back once in a while.

JJMt said:

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Why do you guys keep making posts that the Chinese data is untrustworthy? Of course it is. Has anyone indicated otherwise? This is old news.

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Well all know the data is suspect, but what I think Bobcat and the tweet he linked to are saying is the Chinese are no longer reporting anything with a basis in reality. The Chinese are using a calculated multiplier for new cases and a mortality rate % to release new numbers every day.

I think if Bobcat can predict mathematically within a small margin of error the Chinese numbers we can assume they are 100% bogus.

I know they were undercounting, but by what factor? 10? 100?

Well know it looks like they have the numbers calculated and are just releasing the next calculation each day.

I think we have 12 cases in the US now?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Crossposted from the other thread. Math equation continues to predict official Chinese statistics to within 0.1%

Bobcat06 said:

---

Prediction:

At 5 PM today China will release their updated case statistics. Their official reported statistics (within a very small margin of error) will be 27571 cases & 576 deaths.

If that is correct, the Chinese numbers are complete BS and it's much worse than reported.

---

Official Chinese statistics:

# of Cases
Predicted = 27571
Actual = 27602
Delta = 31
% error = 0.1%

# of Deaths
Predicted = 576
Actual = 564
Delta = 12
% error = 2%

By the way, tomorrow we will have 31,649 cases and 661 deaths.

How can I predict China's reported statistics to within 0.1%?

Because all of the official Chinese statistics are BS calculated by a math formula.

---

Anyone who sees this and continues to believe the Chinese reported numbers are real is an idiot. It's literally just a formula some Chinese dude made up in excel. Truly amazing left of laziness on their part.

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I don't think anyone believes the reported numbers are accurate but that doesn't mean they were generated from a formula in excel.

SIAP
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Sine poena nulla lex.

C@LAg said:

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daggertx said:

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I we have 12 cases in the US now?

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I we do?

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What happens in Wuhan when people run out of food? How long do people stay in their homes when they're starving?

Sine poena nulla lex.

If someone thinks they have the actual numbers or anywhere close to it, they are lying .

Shanked Punt said:

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If someone thinks they have the actual numbers or anywhere close to it, they are lying .

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No one thinks that

They don't get to leave if they are welded into their apartments.

GE said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Crossposted from the other thread. Math equation continues to predict official Chinese statistics to within 0.1%

Bobcat06 said:

---

Prediction:

At 5 PM today China will release their updated case statistics. Their official reported statistics (within a very small margin of error) will be 27571 cases & 576 deaths.

If that is correct, the Chinese numbers are complete BS and it's much worse than reported.

---

Official Chinese statistics:

# of Cases
Predicted = 27571
Actual = 27602
Delta = 31
% error = 0.1%

# of Deaths
Predicted = 576
Actual = 564
Delta = 12
% error = 2%

By the way, tomorrow we will have 31,649 cases and 661 deaths.

How can I predict China's reported statistics to within 0.1%?

Because all of the official Chinese statistics are BS calculated by a math formula.

---

Anyone who sees this and continues to believe the Chinese reported numbers are real is an idiot. It's literally just a formula some Chinese dude made up in excel. Truly amazing left of laziness on their part.

---

I don't think anyone believes the reported numbers are accurate but that doesn't mean they were generated from a formula in excel.

---

An R^2 of 1.000 is statistically impossible for real world data. Only through a formula can you achieve that. This is basic statistics.

JaneDoe02 said:

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What happens in Wuhan when people run out of food? How long do people stay in their homes when they're starving?

---

Bonner Party

Shanked Punt said:

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If someone thinks they have the actual numbers or anywhere close to it, they are lying .

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Thanks, Captain Obvious.

The only question is how many orders of magnitude are the reported numbers off? If it's just a single digit no big deal they're just saving face. If off by 2 digits though?

Why fly in 7000 medical personal for 27000 cases? Dont forget that 7000 is into one area while the 27000 is everywhere.

Sine poena nulla lex.

erudite said:

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Wuhan is very humid like london. Raining half the time in that city and your clothes never dry.

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According to research on a benign coronavirus, extremely high or low humidity is not favorable for the viability of the virus on cold hard surfaces. At 50% humidity, the benign coronavirus could survive as long as 28 days at 4 degrees C.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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This guy is a doom-mongering 'tard with a tenuous grasp on high-school-level mathematics.

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Please explain your reasoning. Seriously, I want to hear how you came to this conclusion.

Break it down for us. You made the claim, don't just throw a **** bomb and walk away, show us where he is wrong. Back up your expert analysis.

1) What are the specific examples of doom-mongering ?

2) Run through the errors you spotted in his analysis.

3) Give us your analysis of the situation in China and in the US and how it will play out over the next 2 days, 7 days and next month.

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I only watched a couple of his videos. I scoffed when he announced with certainty that 3% is a lower bound on the mortality rate, based strictly on the numbers currently being reported by China. He himself has acknowledged that those numbers are likely bogus. Let's say the number of infected cases are under-reported by 10x or 100x. Then the lower bound becomes 0.3% or 0.03%, respectively. But the number of deaths are also likely being under-reported. So any such claim of certainty about a minimum mortality rate is doom-mongering.

When he extrapolates infection numbers into the future, he either doesn't understand or is sloppily mischaracterizing important concepts, such as conflating infection cycles with days.

Edit: I just watched his latest video. He deserves some credit for his "We Don't Know What We Don't Know" slide. In fact the whole video seemed reasonable. Maybe he's turned over a new leaf.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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GE said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Crossposted from the other thread. Math equation continues to predict official Chinese statistics to within 0.1%

Bobcat06 said:

---

Prediction:

At 5 PM today China will release their updated case statistics. Their official reported statistics (within a very small margin of error) will be 27571 cases & 576 deaths.

If that is correct, the Chinese numbers are complete BS and it's much worse than reported.

---

Official Chinese statistics:

# of Cases
Predicted = 27571
Actual = 27602
Delta = 31
% error = 0.1%

# of Deaths
Predicted = 576
Actual = 564
Delta = 12
% error = 2%

By the way, tomorrow we will have 31,649 cases and 661 deaths.

How can I predict China's reported statistics to within 0.1%?

Because all of the official Chinese statistics are BS calculated by a math formula.

---

Anyone who sees this and continues to believe the Chinese reported numbers are real is an idiot. It's literally just a formula some Chinese dude made up in excel. Truly amazing left of laziness on their part.

---

I don't think anyone believes the reported numbers are accurate but that doesn't mean they were generated from a formula in excel.

---

An R^2 of 1.000 is statistically impossible for real world data. Only through a formula can you achieve that. This is basic statistics.

---

Explain please

Sine poena nulla lex.