Nuclear Scramjet said:

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So apparently the people dropping dead in the street might be real and that the virus can cause acute and immediate heart failure. Also, these people are not included in any death totals.

Can anyone confirm this?

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PubMed says its possible with MERS

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26922692

Quote:

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Acute myocarditis associated with novel Middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus

Abstract

The novel Middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MeRS-CoV) has been identified as a cause of pneumonia; however, it has not been reported as a cause of acute myocarditis. A 60-year-old man presented with pneumonia and congestive heart failure. On the first day of admission, he was found to have an elevated troponin-l level and severe global left ventricular systolic dysfunction on echo-cardiography. The serum creatinine level was found mildly elevated. Chest radiography revealed in the lower lung fields accentuated bronchovascular lung markings and multiple small patchy opacities. Laboratory tests were negative for viruses known to cause myocarditis. Sputum sample was positive for MeRS-CoV. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance revealed evidence of acute myocarditis. the patient had all criteria specified by the international Consensus Group on CMR in Myocarditis that make a clinical suspicion for acute myocarditis. this was the first case that demonstrated that MeRS-CoV may cause acute myocarditis and acute-onset heart failure

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I'll give that 1 tick on my scale? Any ideas?

Have the ethnicities of the patients outside of China been released? Have any non Asians contracted this illness? This is not to imply only Asians are susceptible, but it would be odd for there to not be any other ethnicity to become ill now that it has spread beyond chinas border.

lunchbox said:

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This keeps getting posted on Twitter and removed...is erudite around?

Someone on another forum says the numbers reflect this (but I have no way of confirming the translation or if the image is even factual):

Infected 154023
Serious 70808
Cured 269
Dead 24589

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I have seen this posted with an additional warning.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Tinfoil hat engage!

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Oh look! An old fat guy died!

Sasappis said:

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I haven't been reading this thread but don't want to post in the other one. What is the current mortality rate?

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I tried google translate and got something like "the outbreak is severe, avoid large parties". Which I assume means avoid crowds.

I mean he did die yesterday....of all days.

In the middle of a (possible) global pandemic....not from the (possible) pandemic

Sasappis said:

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I haven't been reading this thread but don't want to post in the other one. What is the current mortality rate?

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Lowest 2-3%
Highest 50%
With the numbers from tencent 10%

IrishTxAggie said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Tinfoil hat engage!

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Oh look! An old fat guy died!

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Tinfoil hat engage!

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Oh look! The head of a virus lab in the middle of a Chinese espionage scandal An old fat guy died during the early stages of a possible pandemic!

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Fify

Nothing to see here. Nothing.

Sasappis said:

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I haven't been reading this thread but don't want to post in the other one. What is the current mortality rate?

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Between 2 and 50%.

Bobcat, are you going to answer my scale question?

Unknown.
MERS and SARS were both caused by corona virus variants and were 10 and 8% fatal respectively. However, other corona virus variants have been in wide circulation for years and basically cause cold symptoms.

Novel virus death rate will be much higher than those that have been in circulation for many years.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/scientist-frank-plummer-death-1.5451624

Guy was in Kenya and did HIV/AIDS and other STD research.

Keep those tinfoil hats on tight

Oh, and read a little more about him. Dude had chronic liver failure related to alcoholism

Which scale question?

There are spikes in specific emissions all over Wuhan right now where you can see the emissions from the cremations. Some basic Calculations from this guy that would need to be checked with some Dispersion modeling as well as the normal emissions from the industrial furnaces but just based upon this very raw analysis of the data, might be >10,000 cremated in Wuhan alone.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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There are spikes in specific emissions all over Wuhan right now where you can see the emissions from the cremations. Some basic Calculations from this guy that would need to be checked with some Dispersion modeling as well as the normal emissions from the industrial furnaces but just based upon this very raw analysis of the data, might be >10,000 cremated in Wuhan alone.

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I don't see how that calculation is possible. Seriously. You cannot determine the emission concentration from these models, let alone volume.

SO2 emissions are also related to coal power plants.

/former emissions tester

Bobcat, my apologies. It was to MouthBQ!

Mouth are you going to answer my scale question?

I wonder how many cases made it into the u.s. and how much certain regions may be much less impacted regardless of case count. I.e. idaho.

PearlJammin said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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There are spikes in specific emissions all over Wuhan right now where you can see the emissions from the cremations. Some basic Calculations from this guy that would need to be checked with some Dispersion modeling as well as the normal emissions from the industrial furnaces but just based upon this very raw analysis of the data, might be >10,000 cremated in Wuhan alone.

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I don't see how that calculation is possible. Seriously. You cannot determine the emission concentration from these models, let alone volume.

SO2 emissions are also related to coal power plants.

/former emissions tester

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Not to mention, that screenshot looks like it's from 4chan. Nuclear Scramjet is REALLY getting into the weeds right now.

PearlJammin said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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There are spikes in specific emissions all over Wuhan right now where you can see the emissions from the cremations. Some basic Calculations from this guy that would need to be checked with some Dispersion modeling as well as the normal emissions from the industrial furnaces but just based upon this very raw analysis of the data, might be >10,000 cremated in Wuhan alone.

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I don't see how that calculation is possible. Seriously. You cannot determine the emission concentration from these models, let alone volume.

SO2 emissions are also related to coal power plants.

/former emissions tester

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Human bodies have sulfur in them. It absolutely would create SO2 if they were burned. SO2 can be the product of any combustion of any compound with sulfur. The modeling this guy did is really really basic and you would need to compare it to the background concentrations in Wuhan to know what the spike is in comparison to normal operation. This is how you would do it with NAAQS modeling.

I would be curious to see a full SCREEN3 or hell even an AERMOD run in the city to see if there is any real spike.

Edit - You can easily calculate emissions from furnace stack provided you make some assumptions about the BTU rating, fuel source, and the average human body composition (you can get some of this information from the EPA).

Lots of viruses cause myocarditis, it is just very rare. Unless this one has a super high rate of mycordical infection I would not add on to the apocalypse scale.

Good point......I did not add it yet.

I figured it could be added because of the videos of people dropping dead in the streets.
Although, I was hoping I would not find a study so quickly on PubMed associating Corona Virus and Heart Failure!

KidDoc said:

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Lots of viruses cause myocarditis, it is just very rare. Unless this one has a super high rate of mycordical infection I would not add on to the apocalypse scale.

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If this one does, then that would tip me toward the bioweapon scale.

It seems too early to be so precise such as to be largely meaninglessness, but as you seem determined to have my best guess, I am going to be conservative and say it is roughly as contagious as influenza and approximately 20 times as deadly. So it will pop up in widespread fashion where proper precautions are not taken with a 0.2% overall mortality rate. So, provided your scale is linear versus logarithmic, it would be fairly low, but definitely a few ticks above no concern.
I do think it will knock a good ~0.5% off of 2020 gLobal GDP projections if China doesn't get ahold of it rapidly and if it does flare up here or there in developing nations with larger manufacturing economies.

This pc stuff needs to stop.

Edit: reporting case tested negative in Ecuador.

I would not want to be on this ship...

No, no. I did this:

Quote:

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Quote:

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Quote:

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There's still a huge range of possibilities between global Ebola and the common cold.

The scenarios we have historically to look at for comparably contagious viruses are influenza, SARS, and MERS outbreaks.

Given the corona virus family is responsible for some highly transmissible common cold strains on a regular basis, this virus could very easily keep escaping containment and spreading. It appears to be very transmissible. We still don't know how dangerous it really is, but the bodies and large numbers of hospitalizations in China is clearly worthy of concern.

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The risk that you are insinuating is quite concerning based on those two polar opposites.
I will build a proper risk model, here, shortly.

Lets start with a sliding scale and I will let you initiate where you think we are...

Where are we now?


Apocalyptic------------------------------------------------------0------------------------------------------------------Absolutely Nothing

You go first

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Ok, I will go first.

Based on everything we know, have seen, and can judge, I would say we are about here:


(-50) Apocalyptic----------------------------------------V----------0--------------------------------------------------Absolutely (50)


By the way, I put 50 dashes on each side
0 = Reasonable Action/Concern


That would mean: -10 from 0 (reasonability), -60 from Absolutely nothing, +40 from Apocalyptic.

I am open to edits and other interpretations.

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Followed by this:

Quote:

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Quote:

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Quote:

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Is it me, or does this make it seem a LOT worse than what they are reporting?

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Hmmm...Make shift hospitals out of large scale public venues? That is a -5 points from reasonability...at least.


(-50) Apocalyptic-----------------------------------V---------------0--------------------------------------------------Absolutely (50)


By the way, I put 50 dashes on each side
0 = Reasonable Action/Concern


That would mean: -15 from 0 (reasonability), -65 from Absolutely nothing, +35 from Apocalyptic.

I am open to edits and other interpretations.

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Really, nobody gives a **** what anyone who has been in China the last few weeks looks like. They give a **** that they've been in China the last few weeks. Odds such a person might have Chinese heritage would be expected to be above average for what it is worth.

Seems reasonable. I think people should be aware and prepared for the possibility of needing enhanced hygiene practices and possibly having to mostly stay out of public for possibly 2 weeks or so. Nothing drastic, just precautionary.

I'm around -30 on your scale. (-50 is Apocalypse +50 is Nothingburger)

Leaked Chinese videos and actions look apocalyptic. Hoping other races are less susceptible

Not convinced it's a bio weapon, but definitely open to the possibility.

Hopeful that it gets contained, but still stockpiling groceries in case SHTF

lunchbox said:

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daggertx said:

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DSAg44 said:

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25k have died? Wtf?

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According to?

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It is a "leaked" number. No confirmation.

But I believe 25K have died more than only a few hundred. There have been other tweets out there from crematoriums stating that they are getting 8-10 trucks per day with 10 bodies each in them. That's 80-100 per day....up to 700 per week....per crematorium.

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As I posted last night, the death toll in China is at least 10,000 and climbing. It will surpass 1,000,000 easily.

Do not let bias for normality stop you from protecting your family.

Food, water, medicine, and ammo.

No on knows the future. But, better to have it and not need it. If this turns up Rose's- can always use it later or donate it.

However, if the numbers continue and you are not prepared - you are SOL.

Again, China doesnt quarantine 100,000,000 people over nothing, right? This is already devastating to their economy.