Cbr - you mind if I ask what year you are, or give me an obscure reference to date your time on campus I couldn't easily google?


As an aside to people trashing this thread as doomsday or tinfoil. I gave up prepping many, many, years ago when i made a career change into banking.

I remember scares about random traah before but this is wildly different


++ that being said ++ if you live east of the red river you are going to be F'd should there be real societal collapse.

What was I doing during the 2009 flu pandemic. I remember hearing about it but I don't think I had a phone to research it all the time.

Oh? You think the red river runs west to east to the atlantic?

Civil.Savage said:

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Oh? You think the red river runs west to east to the atlantic?

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I'm well aware of the geography of the Red River. Maybe you meant the Mississippi, I don't know, but using the Red in the context you did is just plain, well, dumb.

You're right. It wasnt helpful. But since you quoted me in your response i'm going to double down on my statement. Mississipi runs too far north and would give some people false sense of security.

Quote:

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++ that being said ++ if you live east of the red river you are going to be F'd should there be real societal collapse.

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If cases start showing up in Mexico, it could get real ugly along the border quickly.

The virus doesn't survive long in warm temperatures, so let's all beg for global warming.

I wonder what happened to all the graphs people were posting a few days ago showing the exponential increasing. Are there no updated ones available?

Edited to remove unconfirmed statement.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Yesterday, the Johns Hopkins site listed 17,200 reported cases in mainland China. A week earlier: 2,700 total cases.

I guess it depends on what happened between those two times

Yelnick McWawa said:

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Civil.Savage said:

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Cbr - you mind if I ask what year you are, or give me an obscure reference to date your time on campus I couldn't easily google?


As an aside to people trashing this thread as doomsday or tinfoil. I gave up prepping many, many, years ago when i made a career change into banking.

I remember scares about random traah before but this is wildly different


++ that being said ++ if you live east of the red river you are going to be F'd should there be real societal collapse.

---

East of the Red River you say? If you ever start prepping again, make the first item on the list a map.

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*checks map*

*sees Red River turns south outside of Texarkana, runs SE to the Mississippi*

*closes thread*

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048643/coronavirus-57-more-deaths-and-2829-new-cases-china-authorities

Quote:

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Coronavirus fatalities in mainland China overtake Sars with 361 deaths

The number of deaths in mainland China attributed to the coronavirus has overtaken the Sars epidemic of 2003, with Chinese health authorities announcing 361 fatalities and 17,205 cases attributable to the rapidly spreading illness, as of Sunday.
China's National Health Commission reported 2,829 new cases and 57 deaths. That compares with 2,590 new cases and 45 deaths, nationwide, on Saturday.
Of the newly reported deaths, 56 were in Hubei province the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak and one in Chongqing.
In Hubei, the new numbers rose to 2,103 confirmed cases and 56 deaths, up from 1,921 and 45 on Sunday.

Chinese
stock markets
slumped almost 9 per cent on reopening on Monday amid the virus outbreak. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index opened the day down 8.73 per cent.


Japan's Nikkei stumbled 1.5 per cent and South Korea's KOSPI index was off 1.4 per cent. Australia's benchmark index was down 0.7 per cent, while New Zealand shares fell 1.8 per cent.

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https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048590/coronavirus-hospital-workers-group-cancels?fbclid=IwAR0HFSMK8CGFwSvHbTIo4iVXhGXe1pWiCqoZe0dIzIBLSkSVYZQVZ5cOScU

Quote:

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Coronavirus: Hong Kong public hospitals brace for workers' strike

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Quote:

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• Bulk of frontline medical professionals are expected to carry on working, with doctors' and nurses' unions promising to fulfil their duties
• Hospital Authority will launch contingency plans to reduce non-essential services but warns half of all booked surgery cases may have to be postponed

Hong Kong's public hospitals are bracing for a staffing crunch after thousands of workers vowed to push ahead with a strike starting from Monday to demand a total closure of the city's borders with mainland China that would help shut out the new coronavirus.
But the bulk of frontline medical professionals were expected to carry on working, with doctors' and nurses' unions promising to fulfil their duties, while scores from the private sector volunteered to step in and help fight the pneumonia-like illness that has infected nearly 15,000 across the mainland and killed over 300.
This came as the city confirmed its 15th case of coronavirus infection on Sunday a 72-year-old woman with an underlying illness. She was identified as the mother of the patient who became Hong Kong's 13th confirmed case.
A resident of the crowded Whampoa Garden private housing estate in Hung Hom, she had been transferred to Lei Yue Mun Park and Holiday Village for quarantine since February 1.


The police bomb squad had to be called to Lo Wu MTR station at the border with Shenzhen on Sunday after two improvised explosive devices in a plastic bag were found under a train seat. One caught fire and the other was defused, while services were temporarily suspended.



The incident was suspected to be linked to radical protest action to force a complete border closure

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Things are just starting get fun over there.

Positive news.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3048629/coronavirus-thailand-has-apparent-treatment-success

Quote:

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Coronavirus: Thailand has apparent treatment success with antiviral drug cocktail

• A 71-year-old patient tested negative for the virus 48 hours after doctors administered a combination of antivirals used to treat flu and HIV
• Thailand has detected 19 confirmed cases of the virus so far the second highest number of cases outside China, after Japan

A Chinese woman infected with the new coronavirus showed a dramatic improvement after she was treated with a cocktail of antivirals used to treat flu and HIV,
Thailand
's health ministry said on Sunday.
The 71-year-old patient tested negative for the virus 48 hours after Thai doctors administered the combination, doctor Kriengsak Attipornwanich during the ministry's daily press briefing.
"The lab result of positive on the coronavirus turned negative in 48 hours," Kriengsak said.
"From being exhausted before, she could sit up in bed 12 hours later."

The doctors combined the anti-flu drug oseltamivir with lopinavir and ritonavir, antivirals used to treat HIV, Kriengsak said, adding the ministry was awaiting research results to prove the findings.


Thailand so far has detected 19 confirmed cases of the virus believed to have originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, which is under lockdown.


That is the second highest number of cases outside China, with Japan recording 20.

Thailand so far has detected 19 confirmed cases of the virus believed to have originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, which is under lockdown.


That is the second highest number of cases outside China, with Japan recording 20.

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GE said:

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I wonder what happened to all the graphs people were posting a few days ago showing the exponential increasing. Are there no updated ones available?

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2 weeks ago, there were 121 confirmed infected...

Second pic, on the right...that's a mannequin.

PigInABlanket said:

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Yelnick McWawa said:

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Civil.Savage said:

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Cbr - you mind if I ask what year you are, or give me an obscure reference to date your time on campus I couldn't easily google?


As an aside to people trashing this thread as doomsday or tinfoil. I gave up prepping many, many, years ago when i made a career change into banking.

I remember scares about random traah before but this is wildly different


++ that being said ++ if you live east of the red river you are going to be F'd should there be real societal collapse.

---

East of the Red River you say? If you ever start prepping again, make the first item on the list a map.

---

*checks map*

*sees Red River turns south outside of Texarkana, runs SE to the Mississippi*

*closes thread*

---

*Should open thread again

*Read follow up conversation for context and clarity

*Give Blanco a star for his river smack comment

*Close thread

k2aggie07 said:

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Second pic, on the right...that's a mannequin.

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2/10 ?

k2aggie07 said:

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Second pic, on the right...that's a mannequin.

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Yeah...it's in the the caption of the link. My apologies for not copying and pasting 4 segments of the story.....not

Quote:

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Thai health officials inspect protective clothing at Bamrasnaradura Infectious Disease Institute in Nonthaburi. Photo: AFP

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More importantly, the first picture's caption....since you mentioned it.

Quote:

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Thai Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, right, views closed circuit video images of coronavirus patients at Bamrasnaradura Infectious Disease Institute in Nonthaburi outside Bangkok. Photo: AFP

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lunchbox said:

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GE said:

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I wonder what happened to all the graphs people were posting a few days ago showing the exponential increasing. Are there no updated ones available?

---

2 weeks ago, there were 121 confirmed infected...

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Coronavirus cases are still increasing exponentially, but I don't believe the numbers are all that accurate due to the turnaround on testing and the way that China determines cause of death.

lunchbox said:

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GE said:

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I wonder what happened to all the graphs people were posting a few days ago showing the exponential increasing. Are there no updated ones available?

---

2 weeks ago, there were 121 confirmed infected...

---

Math nerd moment:

Today, the are 361 fatalities. That's 3x the number of symptomatic cases on 1/18, which is 15 days ago. The first time there were more than 360 cases was 1/21 (12 days ago).

For the sake of a quick thought experiment, let's assume a really high mortality rate of 50%. That means more than 700 cases, which was on 1/23. That would give the virus ~10 days from diagnosis to death.

The lower the mortality rate, the quicker it kills. A 2% mortality rate would be cases diagnosed on 1/29 (4 days between diagnosis and death).

So it seems to me that if the patients are treated with the flu & HIV antivirals that a patient recovers much more quickly. This story said 48 hours. I can't remember the story in Washington State but they had similar success with HIV drugs.

So it seems that if they can get a positive result with these antivirals, then if you are in a country with a decent healthcare system that has access to testing and can identify that you have the virus and adminster the antivirals the patient has a much better chance of recovery.

Interesting. Also Dr Gottleib is one of the smartest people I've ever heard speak and is a great follow through all this.

VaultingChemist said:

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I hope and suspect that Waco sleaze is wrong in that prediction table

tysker said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Second pic, on the right...that's a mannequin.

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2/10 ?

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that's Thailand...

This is the best news so far on this Coronavirus, it was also posted last week that Drs think aids antivirals could possibly kill it. Hope this is true, let's snuff this virus out ASAP so I can go to Mexico soon and get a real Corona virus!

I'm with you. If pandemics were as easy as dragging the bottom right corner on a couple of Excel cells, we'd all be dead already.

I don't for one second believe the death numbers from China.

yukmonkey said:

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I'm with you. If pandemics were as easy as dragging the bottom right corner on a couple of Excel cells, we'd all be dead already.

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. Seems like every one of those extrapolations has been in error so far - mostly overestimating. That one is far less aggressive than previous. And it also seems like we keep extending the date of reckoning (4 days, a week, now 14 days). I sure wish we had some reliable info out of China.