[ Edit: this was reply to mpl35 post]

That sounds very serious. The translation is that they should be taking more precautions but they are not upgrading it so the people can waive safety regulations and continue to work on patients.

The blasted air-travel is the main big weakness. If that could be shut down flat somehow everywhere it would be easier to arrest and slow the spread instead of having it pop up wherever Chinese have traveled from the Wuhan zone.

After googling

ASM = America Society of Microbiome

BSL3 = Biohazard Severity Level 3

Is that right?

It really comes down to this single question

Would a country that had dealt with SARS, Swine Flu, Pig Flu, reacted well for MERS and routinely deal with hoof and mouth outbreaks be acting on this scale to a bat flu strain outbreak?

They have -
60 million full stay at home quarantine
80% of country in some form of lockdown
Masks required when outside in most of country
Extreme travel restrictions within country
Schools closed for at least 1 week, maybe 4 more
Barricades, drone surveillance, sealing people inside their houses
Ordered all dead bodies cremated, no handling or burial allowed, die go straight to crematory

All of that is confirmed via multiple sources.

Quote:

---

It really comes down to this single question

Would a country that had dealt with SARS, Swine Flu, Pig Flu, reacted well for MERS and routinely deal with hoof and mouth outbreaks be acting on this scale to a bat flu strain outbreak?

---

True enough. I don't know why the sheer fact of that alone is not provoking more common sense alarm.

What would it TAKE to do that? That's an authoritarian state--- 100s killed doesn't necessarily matter that much --if it was something manageable. Consider something non virus related as example: the Kuomintang of Chiang Kai-shek blew levees to try to stop both Maoist and Japanese troops --drowning thousands of Chinese peasants. But flood can't "spread" the way virus does. You know where the water is going to go. So you are not worried about it doing one bit more than what you expect.

But disease is not like that, and they are reacting this way.

Its very scary when you consider the kind of government. I think they know what it is. It doesn't mean its a bio-weapon, but they know it is bad. And if artificial, weapon is 50/50 as likely as a cure gone bad.

Quote:

---

Ordered all dead bodies cremated, no handling or burial allowed, die go straight to crematory

---

Cold, but absolutely a wise precaution even with secondary epidemics. It could also refer to they want to first examine any one that died to check for details of the mortality cause.

cbr said:

---

They have -
60 million full stay at home quarantine

---

The fact that twice the population of Texas are complying. I can't imagine the gov't succesfully executing this level of lockdown on just a single metro area here.

You can't quarantine cities of 10m plus for long before **** goes real haywire.

On the most basic point, if you make everyone stay home, you would have a test run of Yang's idea of having to figure out a way that everything is run without people working, but just getting a fixed income anyway.

It would be that idea in microcosm when you think about it. Especially if you also mean you have to start having food simply delivered to residences.

Too late?

We need to track all cases outside of China. It is the only possible way to delay the pandemic.

He's talking about being proactive vs reactive on how we should approach this issue as a country. How can we solve it?

It's a math problem now.

We should see a big jump in the numbers soon.

Or Not.

But they do need to look at really curtailing air travel if it is even that E3 level. Not because it is airborne (apparently it is not) but because that spreads carriers around too fast and to all around at the same time.

Where is spreadsheetAG? Can someone calculate the potential rates based on the R0?

Mr.Infectious said:

---

He's talking about being proactive vs reactive on how we should approach this issue as a country. How can we solve it?

It's a math problem now.

We should see a big jump in the numbers soon.

---

Super Bowl Sunday parties are a great way to spread this, as you noted many pages ago.

I would rather go through some short term economic pain to prevent this than just sit back and watch it cause 100 times more pain.

Something that will become important to learn is what distance do you need to be from someone to be relatively safe? It might become necessary to take full advantage of the already increasing options of drone and non-face to face deliveries of goods.

The death rate won't be know until all is said and done. Takes time to calculate, the Chinese might be reporting truthfully from what is known and have to revise their numbers higher once it's all over.

They can't know how many people died at home until they can do a census months or years from now. It's an impossible task.

VaultingChemist said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

He's talking about being proactive vs reactive on how we should approach this issue as a country. How can we solve it?

It's a math problem now.

We should see a big jump in the numbers soon.

---

Super Bowl Sunday parties are a great way to spread this, as you noted many pages ago.

I would rather go through some short term economic pain to prevent this than just sit back and watch it cause 100 times more pain.

---

Well if you are having a party tomorrow, chances are you know most of the guests and where been, right? In direct dismissal of the poster concerned with the sjw idea of profiling, it would seem relatively easy to be fairly sure who hasn't been overseas in the time frame. Going forward excluding where appropriate. Now this is only for tomorrow's events--- as we get further along in time, you can no longer rely on relatively low odds that another ran into a carrier or not.

UMASS may have this spread like wildfire now.

Pretty incredible what you can accomplish with unlimited resources and no regulation

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

UMASS may have this spread like wildfire now.

---

That's what impresses a bit about China's reactions.

Schools are the absolute worst in epidemics -- even moderate ones. They are practically disease transmission and replication facilities. They need to be shut down flat in such times. To its credit, China has done so.

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The death rate won't be know until all is said and done. Takes time to calculate, the Chinese might be reporting truthfully from what is known and have to revise their numbers higher once it's all over.

They can't know how many people died at home until they can do a census months or years from now. It's an impossible task.

---

The video gives a great example of showing that a mortality rate of 6.5% will just yield an "apparent" 1.2% mortality rate as the infection increases exponentially with a 5-day lag.

It's concerning that deaths > recovered.

Totally agree. If people don't panic and get their **** together.

We can beat this.

If they ignore the threat it is going to kick our asses.

This is going to be the greatest challenge our country has ever faced. We have to cut the bull**** and stand together united.

bmks270 said:

---

It's concerning that deaths > recovered.

---

At least there is a fair number recovered--- its not some ultimate `kills nearly everybody' thing apparently.

foleyt said:

---

Pretty incredible what you can accomplish with unlimited resources and no regulation

---

Yes, its the good side of the ability to "just ordered built" that such powers have.

And not everyone will get sick even if the virus comes to town.

Anyone got an update on how infectious it is?

Mr.Infectious said:

---

And not everyone will get sick even if the virus comes to town.

Anyone got an update on how infectious it is?

---

Given your user handle, I thought you would know before most, bar maybe erudite.

titan said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

He's talking about being proactive vs reactive on how we should approach this issue as a country. How can we solve it?

It's a math problem now.

We should see a big jump in the numbers soon.

---

Super Bowl Sunday parties are a great way to spread this, as you noted many pages ago.

I would rather go through some short term economic pain to prevent this than just sit back and watch it cause 100 times more pain.

---

Well if you are having a party tomorrow, chances are you know most of the guests and where been, right? In direct dismissal of the poster concerned with the sjw idea of profiling, it would seem relatively easy to be fairly sure who hasn't been overseas in the time frame. Going forward excluding where appropriate. Now this is only for tomorrow's events--- as we get further along in time, you can no longer rely on relatively low odds that another ran into a carrier or not.

---

Agree. I attended a visitation for the death of my cousin this evening. I can recall how much personal contact that occurred over a couple of hours with friends and relatives. That type of behavior may have to be modified in the near future.

VaultingChemist said:

---

titan said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

He's talking about being proactive vs reactive on how we should approach this issue as a country. How can we solve it?

It's a math problem now.

We should see a big jump in the numbers soon.

---

Super Bowl Sunday parties are a great way to spread this, as you noted many pages ago.

I would rather go through some short term economic pain to prevent this than just sit back and watch it cause 100 times more pain.

---

Well if you are having a party tomorrow, chances are you know most of the guests and where been, right? In direct dismissal of the poster concerned with the sjw idea of profiling, it would seem relatively easy to be fairly sure who hasn't been overseas in the time frame. Going forward excluding where appropriate. Now this is only for tomorrow's events--- as we get further along in time, you can no longer rely on relatively low odds that another ran into a carrier or not.

---

Agree. I attended a visitation for the death of my cousin this evening. I can recall how much personal contact that occurred over a couple of hours with friends and relatives. That type of behavior may have to be modified in the near future.

---

I will tell you one right now. Churches need to direct no hand-shaking, etc. It puts pressure on the more decisive ones having to be rude without context; make it a blanket direction. Nothing wrong with doing something like the Vulcan Trek `live long and prosper' sign. It was always better anyway. That prevents even flu and cold season spreading as easy if you think about it.

Mine did so direct, but not the folks. But they are just not shaking hands on their own for now.

Oh, and profound condolences on your cousin's passing.

foleyt said:

---

---

Still, AT Wuhan.

Any that has gone there, or been with one that did in the past month, including our diplomats - needs to be considered high-risk until determined otherwise.

titan said:

---

Something that will become important to learn is what distance do you need to be from someone to be relatively safe? It might become necessary to take full advantage of the already increasing options of drone and non-face to face deliveries of goods.

---

The disease spreads through fomites, with the virus viable about 24 to 48 hours, probably.

Use hand sanitizer, avoid touching objects in public places, keep your hands away from your face, and stay away from crowds.

I think the worst part of that is his contact was two weeks ago and he's just now being diagnosed. These cases keep popping up. The number of people he's been in contact with in the last two weeks must be incredible

VaultingChemist said:

---

titan said:

---

Something that will become important to learn is what distance do you need to be from someone to be relatively safe? It might become necessary to take full advantage of the already increasing options of drone and non-face to face deliveries of goods.

---

The disease spreads through fomites, with the virus viable about 24 to 48 hours, probably.

Use hand sanitizer, avoid touching objects in public places, keep your hands away from your face, and stay away from crowds.

---

What items comprise `fomites' -- that is, and, what kind of contact is the transmission?

Saw a post on reddit from a supposed person working with WHO and CDC. Said their estimates of R0 are 3ish. They also said confirmed case lags behind the real number by 7-10 days due to Chinese bureaucracy to name something as confirmed. And, China records only final cause of death in co-morbidity cases, so if you had a heart issue and caught nCoV and died of heart failure, cause of death is heart failure, not nCoV. Same if you're waiting for confirmation and die - gets recorded to neither.

Somewhat encouraging they also said the estimate for incubation period is mean 4.8 days now, close to sars at ~5.