What are the current official numbers outside of China right now? 200 confirmed cases, 0 deaths?

Quote:

---

Gutter oil (Chinese: ; pinyin: dgu yu, or ; sushu yu) is oil which has been recycled from waste oil collected from sources such as restaurant fryers, grease traps, slaughterhouse waste and fatbergs

---

OnlyForNow said:

---

erudite said:

---

Gutter oil is a thing too.

---

Can you elaborate more on this?

---

Liquids pulled from gutters, sewers etc. are heated to separate out the oils. Said oils are reused as cooking oils.

Watch before lunch at your own risk...

Yep, I have several autoimmune diseases, including lupus. My body just tends to overreact to any kind of illness. Knock on wood aside from some allergies I haven't been sick due to lupus or otherwise in two years. I credit low stress and eating properly for not needing medications.

For example the last time I got a sinus infection I also ended up with double ear infections and it took two rounds of oral antibiotics and a shot to kick the infection. So I try my absolute best to not be around sick people and not get sick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutter_oil

Basically its recycled oil from resturants/fatbergs/slaughterhouse waste that would be used for biofuel in the US that is filtered/boiled/ something in a ****ty makeshift place to sell as a cheaper alternative to regular cooking oil.

It's around 50% to 25% the price of regular oil.

That is why in China if you are foreigner and do not understand Chinese very well, eat at the hotel you are in. Those hotel are the only ones allowed to accept foreigners and using gutter oil in them means someone very important on the totem pole will get free gulag (usually, these places are sponsored by someone in the CCP).

Or get someone like me to take you to a restaurant where locals know don't use gutter oil. Usually the restaurants for muslims are good at that (They put other crap in your stuff though sometimes). Nobody ever dared to give me gutter oil in my grandmother's hometown because she used to be the one who could revoke their license .
Once you get to Tibet or the rural areas (like small town of <5,000) people you are okay. Except for Henan. But that is because Henan has the stereotype of being untrustworthy (How they brought it upon themselves is another story).

KorbinDallas said:

---

OnlyForNow said:

---

erudite said:

---

Gutter oil is a thing too.

---

Can you elaborate more on this?

---

Liquids pulled from gutters, sewers etc. are heated to separate out the oils. Said oils are reused as cooking oils.

Watch before lunch at your own risk...

---

Liberals would be impressed at their recycling efforts!

several school districts closed in Ohio due to number of students/staff who have called out sick.

Obviously just regular Flu killing Ohio, but that should help spread public fear.

Probably don't want to go to China then (Tibet/ Rural Yunnan A-OK, but you may not be able to deal with alt sickness).
Usually I don't get sick in the US for a half-year if I stayed in China for two months. Puts a lot of stress on your immune system there.

Also drug resistance is a major issue there. I had chronic sinus infections for two years in the US until we pulled out the stops and got prescribed levaflox + steroids+ SMZ/TMP. I can no longer use penicillin type antibiotics since they are basically ineffective.

You can buy any prescription medication (Except for pain meds) in China (Well maybe not you Zemira since I assume you look like a foreigner ). They just give you no receipt and sometimes give you the version for animals (horses).

Zemira said:

---

Yep, I have several autoimmune diseases, including lupus. My body just tends to overreact to any kind of illness. Knock on wood aside from some allergies I haven't been sick due to lupus or otherwise in two years. I credit low stress and eating properly for not needing medications.

For example the last time I got a sinus infection I also ended up with double ear infections and it took two rounds of oral antibiotics and a shot to kick the infection. So I try my absolute best to not be around sick people and not get sick.

---

You might want to look into Aurina Pharmaceuticals (Symbol: AUPH). They announced stage 3 results in December for a Lupus treatment. They're expected to get FDA approval in June IIRC.

Are these issues present in the larger cities like Beijing? Hong Kong? How about in more common 'vacation' areas like Singapore or Bangkok?

scottimus said:

---

Quote:

---

Gutter oil (Chinese: ; pinyin: dgu yu, or ; sushu yu) is oil which has been recycled from waste oil collected from sources such as restaurant fryers, grease traps, slaughterhouse waste and fatbergs

---

---

Fatberg!!


&f=1&nofb=1

Suspected case in Dallas

LINK.
I HOPE IT IS NOT MY FAMILY (They just went back on the 12th Jan).

New reporting R0 of 4.1?

Delta and American suspended flights to and from China effective today.

I have a staff member that went home for Chinese New Year. At this point, we have no idea when she might be able to return.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2020/01/31/suspected-coronavirus-case-turns-up-in-dallas-assistant-city-manager-says/

KorbinDallas said:

---

New reporting R0 of 4.1?

---

Guarantee you China will never report 4.anything. 4 is bad mojo on the Chinese culture.

United now also suspending flight

I just don't understand how you can calculate an R0 rate with any accuracy when your primary (and heavily weighted) data point is in a dense population area. Conditions there aren't the same as everywhere else, especially in other countries. You need more varied data for a more accurate estimate.

claym711 said:

---

Are these issues present in the larger cities like Beijing? Hong Kong? How about in more common 'vacation' areas like Singapore or Bangkok?

---

You realize he's from the PRC and is talking about the PRC, right?

claym711 said:

---

Are these issues present in the larger cities like Beijing? Hong Kong? How about in more common 'vacation' areas like Singapore or Bangkok?

---

Hong Kong IDK. Generally Mainland lets HK do their own stuff. Shanghai downtown usually OK. Tianjing is eeeeeeh sketchy at times (it's very industrial).

Singapore is what China wants to be. Generally not an issue but never been there. They do spend an insane amount of money on custodial services and you can tell by the cleanness of the city (and hence why they have no major disease issues).
Bangkok I have been to, is possible an issue depending on where you are.

Beijing yes but it is relatively well controlled because its the capital. Where the poor areas lives they cannot afford to buy better food, areas like Huilongguan (It's a working class district). Rural areas of Beijing where they have huiqian (the massive blocks for villages) is likely. Near forbidden city/ tourist areas the police keep a tight leash on any food distributors.

Within Beijing:

There are some *******s who make fake certificates and sell at different locations each day on the street. Stay away from food stalls on the roadside since they can just run away. Restaurants are generally better in Beijing due to tight control (at least within the Dongceng/Xicheng districts, Haidian is also A-OK). Shunyi is okay in areas near the International School of Beijing's immediate vicinity, and also in ID city near subway line 15 after the international expo station because that is where foreigners concentrate.
If you want to taste the mushrooms/rare stuff from Yunnan there is a resturant in the shopping mall at China, Beijing, Shunyi, Yuyang Rd, 99 that serves for mainly foreigners. It's expensive but stuff is shipped overnight from Yunnan.

Also a 12 inch pizza is like 30USD because cheese is hard to come by. Don't eat dairy products because they generally suck and are expensive.

Within Lijiang (Yunnan):
Mostly OK. People are generally more moral and religious there. Find the restaurant all the locals go to.

Within Xining (Qinghai):
Most of the Hui/Muslims restaurants are good there. Can eat dairy products there.

Within Jinan:
I hope you never have to go there. It's like London but worse.

Within Canton area:
Get someone to take you around that you trust. Canton has uh, "exquisite" and "Exotic" tastes. Don't ask what the meat is unless you want to end up like a friends mum. Vomiting for 3 days and refused to eat for a week because she ate duck embryo (lol). Canton resturants are known for being able to do multiple flavors etc. But also strange stuff (like palm civets, shark fin soup, etc).

Chongqing, Chengdu.
Find someone to take you around. Be careful of hotpots in those areas. They like adding opium in minute amounts to get you addicted (It's illegal but not always caught).

If you are in southern China and feel numbing taste is usually from Sichuan peppercorn. Is okay, but don't eat the peppercorn (Think white pepper powder but also numbing) itself.

Other large cities:
Get someone to take you around, or buy a bottle of oil and tell the chef to use it. Hope they do, if not, leave.

Tibet is OK outside of Lhasa (filled with ethnic chinese). Most Tibetans are decent people with morals.


NOTE: Hainan Island
That's uh very unique place. As in unique I mean I have never seen more beautiful a place with as much ******ation.
Most stuff OK. You will see people spit this gum like stuff that looks like blood everywhere. Don't touch it for obvious reasons. It also permanently stains the concrete so it looks like we just had some sort of genocide there.
Also don't for the love of gods go swimming if you see a village/river nearby. A lot of areas are very underdeveloped and just dump waste in the river/ocean.

Most local Hainan men are what I would define as "deadbeat". The women do all the work and the men usually sit around lounging and catcalling women.
/End rant, PM me if questions.

No I am American.

Edit: Chinese decent.

Civil.Savage said:

---

several school districts closed in Ohio due to number of students/staff who have called out sick.

Obviously just regular Flu killing Ohio, but that should help spread public fear.

---

There are 3 Central Texas school disticts closed right now due to flu.

erudite said:

---

No I am American.

Edit: Chinese decent.

---

Sorry, "from" meaning "originally from" and came to the US as a child. If I was mistaken about that, I apologize.

claym711 said:

---

Are these issues present in the larger cities like Beijing? Hong Kong? How about in more common 'vacation' areas like Singapore or Bangkok?

---

When the summer Olympics were in Beijing, Usain Bolt said that the only thing that he ate while he was there were McDonald's McNuggets and fries since he didn't trust anything else.

From Peter Zeihan. I disagree with his R0 of 1.4, but agree with the rest

Quote:

---

Four things have popped up in the past 48 hours that are worth a look.

First, we now have enough preliminary data to say some general things about the virus and the news is good: the virus is neither as deadly nor as communicable as the SARS virus from more than 15 years ago. Take a look at this from Dr Melvin Sanicas with the Gates Foundation. (Twitter handle: @Vaccinologist.)

R0 is the number of people a newly infected tends to spread the virus to. The fatality rate is the chance of dying. The coronavirus is serious, but not that serious.

Coronavirus isn't going wipe us out. It isn't going to wipe China out. In fact, it probably won't kill nearly as many people as a normal flu season. Here's the U.S. Center for Disease Control's page on the virus https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/index.html you'll note its guidance is almost identical for the normal seasonal flu strains.

(It is important to note that coronaviruses notoriously mutate. The danger is that the mutation makes it more deadly or that it will have a higher transmission rate, among other things. This is why public health agencies need to continue to be very cautious. Meanwhile, the public in most of the world should take a breath and ignore the fear mongers.)

Second, the virus has become a political issue in China, as was probably likely to occur given the country's propensity for information control. Today a report signed by hundreds of (mostly Chinese) scientists indicates that the Chinese government was well aware of the virus' human-to-human transmission as soon as early December, but chose to sit on that information for PR reasons.

One of the (many) downsides of shifting from an authoritarian system where a group of people rule to a dictatorial system where one person rules is that when anything goes seriously wrong there is no one else to blame. To this point China's netizins (and the central government) have been blaming local authorities. Now they'll be blaming the central government and that puts General Secretary Xi Jingping in the crosshairs.

Third, travel bans have begun. Yesterday Italy banned all flights to and from China. Today Russia closed the land border. Today the American government issued a Class 4 travel advisory, which urges all U.S. citizens in China to leave, putting China into the same basket of countries as North Korea and Iran. International links are the lifeblood of the Chinese economy, and infringements upon human and commercial connections will have outsized economic impacts.

Fourth and by far the most geopolitically significant China has extended the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, keeping people from work to slow the virus' spread. They've done this not just for the epicenter, Wuhan, but for a dozen provinces, including mighty Shanghai. Until February 10th, businesses will remain closed. People will stay put. (And we will be entertained by videos of ordinary Chinese people fighting the boredom with dragon dances in their living rooms using buckets and blankets.)

Assuming these extensions are not further expanded in time or space, they are already more than sufficiently disruptive to knock a full percentage point off Chinese GDP growth for the year. And yet that's only the tip of the iceberg.

No modern manufactured product works unless it has all its requisite widgets. The most dynamic portion of the Chinese economy the Yangtze Basin is at least for now closed for business. This will quite effectively melon-scoop China out of many manufacturing supply chains. The now three-year-old trend of relocating manufacturing out of mainland China to locations with cheaper labor, more skilled labor, better resource access, better consumer access, and/or less political risk just got an incredible shot in the arm.

In short, this coronavirus has sped everything up that was already going down in the international system most notably the ossification of the Chinese political system and the isolation of the Chinese economy even more than the Trump administration.

There is a bit more to this than just transmission rates and mortality. Epidemiology is a complex science, after all. But there are a few things to keep in mind when you're trying to follow the news of the coronavirus and decide whether to start mapping out your apocalypse bunker.

First, R0 changes based on circumstances, so it's a snapshot of the virus in its current context and time. Our snapshot is largely based on pre-quarantine efforts. Its also based on a healthcare system that remains behind the West in important ways. Put the virus in a different context and it may be lower but put it in a place with an already struggling population like North Korea and it may be higher. It is also based on reported cases, which means R0 is an estimate based on the best available data. The actual number of infected may be higher.

Some people are pointing out that the incubation period may be as low as 2 days or as high as 14 days. The latter is concerning because that is a long time frame during which someone can spread the virus. It's particularly concerning if it can be spread before symptoms appear, which would make infected persons harder to detect, but there are conflicting reports on whether a person spreads the virus before symptoms appear. If the higher number is correct, it is entirely possible, maybe even likely, that this will spread far and wide.

But even still, the virus in its current state has a relatively low mortality. It can make anyone sick but indications are that many of the deaths are in the populations you'd expect: older or otherwise already sickly. Just like the flu. My point is not to downplay these deaths. It's that if the question is "Is this the Big One?" the answer appears to be "No."

---

Yeah no plans to visit China. They have some interesting history, but I like the Western world too much sometimes to visit the rest.

Prognightmare said:

---

Zemira said:

---

Yep, I have several autoimmune diseases, including lupus. My body just tends to overreact to any kind of illness. Knock on wood aside from some allergies I haven't been sick due to lupus or otherwise in two years. I credit low stress and eating properly for not needing medications.

For example the last time I got a sinus infection I also ended up with double ear infections and it took two rounds of oral antibiotics and a shot to kick the infection. So I try my absolute best to not be around sick people and not get sick.

---

You might want to look into Aurina Pharmaceuticals (Symbol: AUPH). They announced stage 3 results in December for a Lupus treatment. They're expected to get FDA approval in June IIRC.

---

Cool! Thanks I will look into the company/drug. I tend to avoid all medication unless I get really sick. I have one infusion therapy I have success with and the less often I have seems to be more effective. Something else as a backup would be great.

You can read their press releases from December to see if their medicine might help you and talk it over with your doctor. The stock more than doubled overnight and hasn't sold off so investors must be convinced it's a significant breakthrough.

Good luck Zem and you're in my prayers.

Do people really not know in 2020 that anything named something like "Coronavirus Alert: New Massive Contagion Risk" is obvious clickbait?

JJxvi said:

---

Do people really not know in 2020 that anything named something like "Coronavirus Alert: New Massive Contagion Risk" is obvious clickbait?

---

Did the PHD pathologist from Duke state anything that was untrue?

Do you believe that the research paper just released by the Chinese is inaccurate? If so, why?

Do you disagree with the conclusion that shortening the infectious period to less than 2.3 days would stop an outbreak?

VaultingChemist said:

---

JJxvi said:

---

Do people really not know in 2020 that anything named something like "Coronavirus Alert: New Massive Contagion Risk" is obvious clickbait?

---

Did the PHD pathologist from Duke state anything that was untrue?

Do you believe that the research paper just released by the Chinese is inaccurate? If so, why?

Do you disagree with the conclusion that shortening the infectious period to less than 2.3 days would stop an outbreak?

---

I have no clue, except to say that whats obvious about it is that whoever runs that youtube channel hopes to monetize the videos.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/cdc-quarantines-wuhan-passengers-in-california-under-federal-order.html

Maybe it will cure it by overloading your immune system?

No idea. Could go the other way.