GE said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

---

Not sure.

Four German cases with 2 to 3 day incubation period and 2 to 4 day recovery period. After recovery a patient still had a high viral load of 10^8 viral particles per ml.

---

Can you explain this in plain language?

---

It is being reported that even after symptoms go away, the infected persons still have 100s of millions of virus particles per milliliter of body fluid. I'm guessing blood.

This says that even after symptoms go away, the virus can still be spread.

Here is a good video on virus "life" cycle and the human body's reaction.

Official or source from a friend?

Mr.Infectious said:

---

I think we will end up seeing pockets of this develop in poor countries and maintained to reasonable levels in advanced countries.

---

This is likely as long as it is treated with adequate seriousness. It surprises me how cavalier some are being about this. The data of of China is unreliable for western comparisons due to cultural behavioral differences, but western or developed nation resistance and suppression of this disease will depend on public awareness and adequate quarantine and hygiene measures until it is suppressed or a vaccine is developed. If you don't let it in, or behave as if it is a threat, it doesn't start the exponential spread in the population.

The China data probably vastly underreports for three reasons: mild or asymptomatic carriers, government suppression of unofficial negative information, and many people being sent home or confined at home with symptoms or the disease and not being counted. Any other populous area it gets loose in may be under substantial threat due to the disease seeming to be easily transmissible on the order of a cold or flu, and by asymptomatic carriers.

We won't really know what the threat potential is in a developed western nation until we have a full breakout cycle to study in one with a short history of exponential transmission that runs its course to study.

In these cases it is better to be more wary than not wary enough. One is an inconvenience, the other is a very real increase in risk of a pandemic. All it takes to tamp this thing down is to react to it with seriousness for a few weeks.

Was on CNBC

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

I think we will end up seeing pockets of this develop in poor countries and maintained to reasonable levels in advanced countries.

---

This is likely as long as it is treated with adequate seriousness. It surprises me how cavalier some are being about this. The data of of China is unreliable for western comparisons due to cultural behavioral differences, but western or developed nation resistance and suppression of this disease will depend on public awareness and adequate quarantine and hygiene measures until it is suppressed or a vaccine is developed. If you don't let it in, or behave as if it is a threat, it doesn't start the exponential spread in the population.

The China data probably vastly underreports for three reasons: mild or asymptomatic carriers, government suppression of unofficial negative information, and many people being sent home or confined at home with symptoms or the disease and not being counted. Any other populous area it gets loose in may be under substantial threat due to the disease seeming to be easily transmissible on the order of a cold or flu, and by asymptomatic carriers.

We won't really know what the threat potential is in a developed western nation until we have a full breakout cycle to study in one with a short history of exponential transmission that runs its course to study.

In these cases it is better to be more wary than not wary enough. One is an inconvenience, the other is a very real increase in risk of a pandemic. All it takes to tamp this thing down is to react to it with seriousness for a few weeks.

---

Most Chinese hospitals have a line regularly beginning at around 5 AM in the morning (In Beijing, 3AM) to get the limited tickets for a doctor.
My doctor when I was injured saw only 5 patients a day that were new. He saw 30-70 previous patients he had operated on regularly aside from responding to ER calls occasionally. He also led around 10 residents and 2 junior doctors in his specialty. He was the head of the specialty at the hospital.
I don't know how many the US doctors get.

Quote:

---

CNN spoke to a Chinese woman named Shi Muying who has been told by her doctor that she has the coronravirus, but because a fourth test has not been administered yet she is still considered to be a "suspected case"

By January 26, Shi began to have a fever one of the symptoms of the novel coronavirus. She went to the hospital's fever clinic where she found over 20 patients, all waiting to be tested by one doctor.

She says she was given three tests a nasal swipe to rule out the flu, a CT scan to compare her lungs against those of infected patients, and a blood test. After nine hours of tests and waiting for results she says the doctor told her that she had coronavirus, but because he could not give her the fourth and most definitive test, she could only be considered a suspected patient. Her 67-year-old father is in the same situation.

So this woman and her father do not count as confirmed cases at this point. Instead, they are among the 12,100 suspected cases that are still supposedly waiting to be confirmed.

---

Few things w this....

1) of course the Chinese are under reporting, they are corrupt and always have been. Shouldn't be a shock.

2) I'm not in medical field but that' seems like a bunch of testing and time for one patient. No wonder they had back ups in the emergency rooms. The costs could be enormous (especially in the US) if this continues to spread. Going to need to cut that time and costs down...

KorbinDallas said:

---

GE said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

---

Not sure.

Four German cases with 2 to 3 day incubation period and 2 to 4 day recovery period. After recovery a patient still had a high viral load of 10^8 viral particles per ml.

---

Can you explain this in plain language?

---

It is being reported that even after symptoms go away, the infected persons still have 100s of millions of virus particles per milliliter of body fluid. I'm guessing blood.

This says that even after symptoms go away, the virus can still be spread.

Here is a good video on virus "life" cycle and the human body's reaction.

---

Very interesting. I assume they will continue to quarantine these people until the level of virus particle concentration drops under some threshold?

Aggiebrewer said:

---

AMERICAN AIRLINES clearly has tin foil hat planes

---

The Pilot Union told their members not to fly to China. The original plan was to draw it down over the next week.

You know how in the US doctors get sued sometimes because patient is not happy?
In China they do not sue you. They either
1) Beat you up with a blunt object
2) Get their family to fight outside the hospitals
3) Kill you.

This is why in China most major hospitals have a special PLAAP (People's Liberation Army Armed Police) squad with live bullets and combat gear.

Viral particles were in the saliva and sputum per the video.

VaultingChemist said:

---

Viral particles were in the saliva and sputum per the video.

---

I wonder if it will be in sexual fluids as well like ebola?

Reminds me, the saliva and sputum are probably why its spread. People in China have a habit of coughing and just spitting it out on the ground.

GE said:

---

Is there any info in one place on total infections vs. recovery rate and timeline for the cases outside of China? I've seen sporadic things throughout this thread but no good summary.

---

I watch this one:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It has references

It's s respiratory disease that aggravates other respiratory conditions. People are coughing and hacking trying to breathe or keep their lungs clear. They'd be doing this anywhere, China, France, the USA, if they had the symptomatic disease. That is how it spreads.

Delta has halted all China flights as well. I'm sure United will be soon to follow.

They are not the only sources of reports on this. Plenty of governments have been taking increasingly drastic actions to protect their own populations.

AA's press release. All flights from today through March 27th.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Update-on-China-Flights-OPS-DIS/default.aspx

Sorry was trying to relate your heritage, not trying to classify you unnecessarily.

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

---

Multiple drug makers have developed effective vaccines already. Should be ready for trial use in a few months, if the virus is still circulating then.

is this worse than the flu strain people got flu shots for this year or about the same? From the little I've seen, it's a virus that's spreading but not nearly as bad as SARS or MERS was.

claym711 said:

---

When vides of dudes in their basements start making the rounds as reliable authorities, you've officially gone the Q route.

---

That last video is from Dr. John Campbell, Senior Lecturer in Nursing Studies at the University of Cumbria.
Yep, just a guy in his basement.

Zemira said:

---

Sorry was trying to relate your heritage, not trying to classify you unnecessarily.

---

No problem. I've had it happen before.
No harm no foul.

I want to post a video but I cannot capture it right now... Wenzhou North station being deconned by a bunch of lads in hazmat gear.
is summer.
EDIT: I was also going to work EMS volunteer in China this summer. Dodged a bullet there.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/529565613123829780/672844754412765195/video0.mp4
Wenzhou North railway station in Chongqing undergoing decon.

erudite said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Viral particles were in the saliva and sputum per the video.

---

I wonder if it will be in sexual fluids as well like ebola?

Reminds me, the saliva and sputum are probably why its spread. People in China have a habit of coughing and just spitting it out on the ground.

---

I worked with a woman from China who was probably middle aged. She would sit in her office and cough up phlegm all day long. Drove everyone else in the office up the wall. I think her manager even spoke to her a few times at first asking if she needed to see a doctor. Eventually it was just assumed to be cultural and she was asked to leave her door closed if she continued because she was grossing and annoying the rest of the office. I shudder to think about everyone around me doing this all time.

98Ag99Grad said:

---

is this worse than the flu strain people got flu shots for this year or about the same? From the little I've seen, it's a virus that's spreading but not nearly as bad as SARS or MERS was.

---

Flu has R0 (contagious exponential base factor) of ~1.2 and mortality rate (death per infection) of ~0.0001%

SARS had a R0 of ~2 and mortality rate of ~6%

Corona has a R0 of ~4 and mortality rate of ~2%

Simply put, much more infectious than SARS but less deadly

[url]

[/url]

Don't worry Tanya, I've got you back on this one.

The less deadly is a bit premature. That's comparing SARS endpoint data to brand new starting point for Corona. IN another few weeks it might be closer to SARS (very likely in fact).

Agnzona said:

---

The less deadly is a bit premature. That's comparing SARS endpoint data to brand new starting point for Corona. IN another few weeks it might be closer to SARS (very likely in fact).

---

Considering that China's numbers are completely bogus I'm going agree we have no idea the death rate.

It's because of the pollution.
Relative has what appears to be black lung. Didn't ever work in a coal mine.
You get used to it after a while. Just think of it as people who are spitting sunflower seeds. I got repeated severe respiratory tract infections every time I went to China. I also had what appeared to be kidney and cartilage issues there that resolved after a year in the US, suspect it is due to food and water additives/pollution.

Someone mentioned you had affinity for getting sick/ (Or was it weakness to viral agents)? Well that makes two of us.

Gutter oil is a thing too. Generally I can tell just by smelling it, but I ate some food with everyone else a gathering and had a 103 fever for a week and couldn't eat for a week after. Tests returned negative on food poisoning bacteria . Be glad the US has adequate oversight in food safety.

erudite said:

---

Gutter oil is a thing too.

---

Can you elaborate more on this?