I'm thinking about taking an Italian cruise.

I'm glad you guys brought up tilapia! We might all be hydroponically raising veggies in tilapia piss soon!

It's actually pretty darn healthy if you do it yourself.

just dont tell the friends you invite over for dinner....
"The flavor of the tilapia piss really comes through in this squash!"

From the twitter translation...

Quote:

---

After the 51 cured patients were discharged directly from the hospital, the weak virus carried during the treatment in the hospital would be transmitted to 1-3 people around them. The 51 patients cured should be isolated again for 10-14 days before being discharged.

---

Informative timeline of the virus.



The city of Wuhan held a banquet for 100,000 people with shared plates near the epicenter of the outbreak on January 18.

OldArmy71 said:

---

Really, to be fair, the figures coming from China are probably all lies. The news organizations that are making these comparisons to SARS have no valid way to do so. The infection rate and the death rate of this disease are probably much, much higher than China is reporting.

---

This.

I don't believe any of the numbers coming out of China.

tysker said:

---

just dont tell the friends you invite over for dinner....
"The flavor of the tilapia piss really comes through in this squash!"

---

I don't.

They don't tell you about the hog piss you eat either!

VaultingChemist said:

---

---

I guess at some point, Wall Street will figure out that this is going to have bit of an impact on GDP.

About a dozen folks at IAH with masks. Not Asians either. Took a look on Amazon out of curiosity - most masks are selling at a premium, large shipping costs and most aren't available for shipping for 4-6 weeks. I'd say there is already a run in masks - just wait till real panic sets in.

Yet 40000 fatalities from influenza last year.

touche
*adds hog piss into macro counts*

Macro Counts?

Why is the assumption re: exponential growth that exponential growth will continue both in 1) other places and cultures and 2) after people have taken proper precautions. Most of the exponential growth cases detected as of today would have been contracted prior to major precautions having been taken.

Big Al 1992 said:

---

About a dozen folks at IAH with masks. Not Asians either. Took a look on Amazon out of curiosity - most masks are selling at a premium, large shipping costs and most aren't available for shipping for 4-6 weeks. I'd say there is already a run in masks - just wait till real panic sets in.

Yet 40000 fatalities from influenza last year.

---

How many fatalities would there be if A and B did not have any herd immunity, vaccines, or treatments?

What medical treatment will they get for a virus?

daggertx said:

---

What medical treatment will they get for a virus?

---

That's my question as well? Is it the same treatment as the Flu?

More likely treatment for pneumonia symptoms.

daggertx said:

---

What medical treatment will they get for a virus?

---

There are several drugs that are used to treat HIV that seem to have some positive results in treating Coronavirus patients.

Elderberry is a homeopathic antiviral treatment option also.

Agvet12 said:

---

daggertx said:

---

What medical treatment will they get for a virus?

---

That's my question as well? Is it the same treatment as the Flu?

---

As of now, the popular consensus is pneumonia is what causes the death.

Other reports of ARDS, and I'm sure, other complications from pneumonia such as these:

• Bacteremia and septic shock. Bacteremia is a serious complication in which bacteria from the initial site of infection spread into the blood. ...
• Lung abscesses. ...
• Pleural effusions, empyema, and pleurisy. ...
• Renal failure.
• Respiratory failure.

I have seen other reports of organ failure, as well, which would make sense as a complication of this.

tysker said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

foleyt said:

---

Source: http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020/01-30/9073220.shtml
Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored in contact with outbreaks
January 30, 2020 10:55 Source: China News Network

(Combating new pneumonia) Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored for outbreaks

Langzhong News Agency, Beijing, January 30th. Li Lanjuan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, said that the new coronavirus is transmitted between mammals, so mammals need to be prepared. "Owners need to strengthen the management of pets. If pets are exposed to outbreaks and patients, they also need to be monitored."

---

---

Faces blacked out until the next of kin can be contacted

---

Really missed an easy "next of kitty" joke there.

foleyt said:

---

---

If those "boxes" they are swinging into place inpatient rooms, they didn't rough in for a toilet, sink, shower, gases, or lights. They more resemble holding bays. Of those are intended to be patient rooms open shortly, they will need a lot of catheters, bags, and hand sanitizer.

Really doubtful the Chinese add those things. As I understand it a lot of apartments in the densely populated areas share bathroom facilities.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

They want everyone focused on this construction story instead of the human disaster around it.

---

I mean if these 2 week hospitals all collapse and kill everyone, no need to add those numbers to the virus total.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Why in the **** is anyone flying any human beings out of China to anywhere right now without flying them straight into a quarantined airfield?

---

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/30/801142924/coronavirus-has-now-spread-to-all-regions-of-mainland-china

Quote:

---

"Ben Cowling, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, says that in the last few days the trajectory of this outbreak has grown much clearer," NPR's Jason Beaubien reports from Hong Kong. He adds, "Cowling says the outbreak is just getting started and he expects to see increased levels of transmission globally including in the United States."

"I think it's quite likely that you will see human-to-human transmission in U.S. cities within the next two or three weeks," Cowling says.

---

I've seen rumors that the "hospital" is a glorified crematorium and that whomever gets sent there won't come out.

Interesting graphic comparing Wuhan, SARS, and MERS.

Math nerd thoughts:

I don't trust the numbers coming from China, but I suspect they represent the real numbers scaled down by several factors of 10. That is I believe that rather than having 7,800 case, the real number is around 780,000 cases (or maybe even 7,800,000 cases). While the raw numbers are fudged, I believe the rate of growth to be accurate.

The spread of an infection can be modeled by population saturation curve or the logistic function (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function), which is the integral of a Gaussian distribution. The first half of the curve is exponential in growth until the 50% inversion point, where it becomes an exponential decay as the population becomes saturated. As a result, you see exponential growth from 0-25%, linear growth from 25-75% (inter quartile range or IQR), and exponential decay from 75-100%..

If the drastic confinement measures are true (welding doors shut, temperature police, etc), I would max exposure population to be limited and the saturation point to be finite. With this in mind, China would hopefully be reaching the IQR where growth goes from exponential to linear.

When the rate of growth eventually slows to a linear pace, that will be approximately 1/4 of the total impact. At that point, reported number of cases * 4 *Chinese fudge factor (100 or 1000 or whatever) = total cases.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Why in the **** is anyone flying any human beings out of China to anywhere right now without flying them straight into a quarantined airfield?

---

Canada: