erudite said:

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School holidays extended to Feb 3rd for now.

Most work companies are shut down. That's what I'm being told by family.

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We got confirmation tonight that some of the major ODMs are extending their CNY shutdowns an additional 7-10 days.

I believe every word of that. Confirms all the actions we've seen.

Supply shortages will follow.

Already affecting me. Key vendor closed til Feb 10.

....Not that they don't have more important things to worry about.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/01/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-says-death-toll-rises.html

Some good updates on business shut downs...

Have the shutdowns made it to Shenzhen/Xiamen etc?

Most of our stuff doesn't get back to normal until about Feb 12th-18ish anyway.

Saw this today: given RO of 2.2 to 2.6:

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follows (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

SHTF time?

OldAg89er said:

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Saw this today: given RO of 2.2 to 2.6:

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follows (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

SHTF time?

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Sooooo I should wear gloves, protective eye wear, and a mask?

TAMUallen said:

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OldAg89er said:

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Saw this today: given RO of 2.2 to 2.6:

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follows (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

SHTF time?

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Sooooo I should wear gloves, protective eye wear, and a mask?

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The researcher who ran these numbers simply said we are screwed. Mortality rate will be everything.

According to /pol/ most of the hospitals in Hubei don't have the resources to test for coronavirus but do test for pneumonia. Apparently 1 out of every 4 cases developes into pneumonia if the numbers are right.

Two of the four confirmed cases in Australia have fully recovered and released from hospital.

That R0 valve probably applies to the way information spreads...... Never thought we'd get to 2K posts on this thread when it was started 9 days ago. Awareness is spreading.

The function exponent or curve will change over time and location as the population reacts or the disease moves into geographies and cultures better equipped to deal with it and slow it.

But where are we on the numbers curve of tinfoilers that want it to be man made biting at any trolling line dangled in front of them?

Source: http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020/01-30/9073220.shtml
Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored in contact with outbreaks
January 30, 2020 10:55 Source: China News Network

(Combating new pneumonia) Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored for outbreaks

Langzhong News Agency, Beijing, January 30th. Li Lanjuan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, said that the new coronavirus is transmitted between mammals, so mammals need to be prepared. "Owners need to strengthen the management of pets. If pets are exposed to outbreaks and patients, they also need to be monitored."

Shanked Punt said:

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Two of the four confirmed cases in Australia have fully recovered and released from hospital.

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Source?

foleyt said:

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Source: http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020/01-30/9073220.shtml
Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored in contact with outbreaks
January 30, 2020 10:55 Source: China News Network

(Combating new pneumonia) Li Lanjuan: Virus spreads among mammals, pets need to be monitored for outbreaks

Langzhong News Agency, Beijing, January 30th. Li Lanjuan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, said that the new coronavirus is transmitted between mammals, so mammals need to be prepared. "Owners need to strengthen the management of pets. If pets are exposed to outbreaks and patients, they also need to be monitored."

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If and I mean IF that is true, then there is no stopping this one. It's going global and will spread to the ends of the Earth. I hope to god that's not true.

KorbinDallas said:

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Feel free to believe this or not, here it goes.

Just got off the phone with my best friend (great Aggie, and 100% american) who spent significant time in China (both business and missionary work) and my friend is fluent in mandarin. Friend has maintained connections in China, one is a low level member of the communist party and one is a doctor. (This is purposefully vague to protect from any possible retaliation)

From the doctor who is from a major city (not Wuhan), they are working more than 24 hour shifts to keep up with patients and are completely overwhelmed. Doctors are being pulled from other cities and assigned to Wuhan. You can say no, but it's the equivalent of going AWOL. The cases are being underreported by several times. The internet is being censored like never before, and they claim restrictions are getting tighter by the hour.

From the party member, he substantiated the story that the virus did come from one of the level 4 labs. He did say that he doesn't believe that the party would ever admit to this fact. If someone from the party did publicly come out, they would be in a world of trouble

Take it for what you will, I trust my direct source with my life and any of my family members.

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If this is the case, it should not be hard to find out quickly.

We have spies, military intel, assets all over China, and if the lab was associated, it will be known.

It would be apparent that this lab was not 100% secure if this virus came from there. Therefore, it was probably not 100% secure previously. I would think Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, or some ally would have to have this information now that this is going on.

If that is the case, just a matter of time before the intel is matched...

I'm no biologist but that seems unlikely. If it is true pets will be the least of the problem. Livestock getting this would be not great.

Fairview said:

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I'm no biologist but that seems unlikely. If it is true pets will be the least of the problem. Livestock getting this would be not great.

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Yeah I don't think it is either, but then if the rumors about it being engineered are true then who knows.

Fairview said:

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I'm no biologist but that seems unlikely. If it is true pets will be the least of the problem. Livestock getting this would be not great.

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Hainan Sealed and Isolated Wild Animal Breeding Farm

2020-01-29 22:12 Source: Xinhua News Agency

Xinhua News Agency, Haikou, January 29 (Reporter Chen Kaizi) On the 29th, reporters learned from the Forestry Bureau of Hainan Province that the province has recently inspected and notified epidemic prevention and control of 378 wild animal breeding farms, and sealed off and isolated them.

In order to effectively prevent and control the pneumonia epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection, the Forestry Bureau of Hainan Province has recently issued an implementation plan for the prevention and control of pneumonia epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection, and issued an antifeedant wildlife proposal. The plan calls for investigations and special crackdowns on wildlife trading markets.

After investigation, there are 228 civet breeding enterprises in Hainan Province with 61,514 inventories, involving Haikou, Wenchang, Wanning, Sanya, Qionghai and other cities and counties; 174 snake breeding enterprises, with 482,706 inventories, involving Haikou and Yan Prefectures, Chengmai, Wenchang, Qionghai and other cities and counties; 21 bamboo rat breeding enterprises, with a total of 42,310 inventories, involving 9 cities and counties including Luzhou, Qiongzhong, Haikou and Tunchang.

At present, a total of 378 wild animal breeding farms have been inspected and notified, of which 214 were inspected on-site, 82 announcements were posted, 43 letters of commitment were signed with the artificial breeding farms, and the breeding farms were sealed and isolated. In the next step, the forestry department will continue to cooperate with the market, agriculture and rural areas to carry out special rectification of wildlife transportation, sales, and sales, conduct comprehensive inspections of farmers' markets, supermarkets, restaurants, etc., and continue to make unannounced visits to wildlife trading markets. , To take further measures on the above wild animal domestication and breeding enterprises.

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-01/29/content_5472983.htm

Damn, a mammal killer would cut off protein supply world wide....

OldAg89er said:

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Saw this today: given RO of 2.2 to 2.6:

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follows (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

SHTF time?

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Most of those cases will be in China. Nearly all countries should implement a quarantine on travel from China, including anyone that spent time in China the last 30 days. It should have been done 3 days ago.

That may buy us enough time to develop a vaccine, however unlikely. Better to err on the side of caution. If this takes a foothold anywhere in North America, it won't be pretty.

scottimus said:

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Damn, a mammal killer would cut off protein supply world wide....

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Everyone to become Vegans ! Probably would rather just croak,

Or everyone gets skinny and wears skinny jeans !

My bet is the shutdown ends at latest on a worst case scenario in march.
Most likely: Ends sometime in mid-late feb.

I have heard through my contacts that there are at least two versions of the virus now possibly. They are having hard time tracking symptoms right now because apparently is no longer severe respiratory distress in some patients.

erudite said:

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I have heard through my contacts that there are at least two versions of the virus now possibly. They are having hard time tracking symptoms right now because apparently is no longer severe respiratory distress in some patients.

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Most experts had predicted mutations.

What do your contacts know about the 8 Wuhan doctors that were detained for spreading false rumors about the virus in December?

erudite said:

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I have heard through my contacts that there are at least two versions of the virus now possibly. They are having hard time tracking symptoms right now because apparently is no longer severe respiratory distress in some patients.

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So strange that this hasn't been nailed down already.. maybe the Chinese aren't willing to share the information they have? There's been plenty of time since it started to figure it out I would think?

Singapore to distribute flu masks to all households in the country:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/wuhan-virus-every-household-in-singapore-to-get-4-masks-collection-starts-on-feb-1

Just published by market watch. Interesting virology write up.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-is-less-deadly-than-sars-but-that-may-explain-why-its-so-contagious-2020-01-30

And if you fly, study shows odds of contracting a virus plummet if you have a window seat.

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-safest-place-sit-flight-105600087.html

moses1084ever said:

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Singapore to distribute flu masks to all households in the country:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/wuhan-virus-every-household-in-singapore-to-get-4-masks-collection-starts-on-feb-1

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Instead of masks - they should hand out chapstick so they can bend over and kiss their butts goodbye.

Question to thread readers: got food, medicine, and water for your family if your area is quarantined?

Best go get some while the getting is good. Dont empty your saving, but do spend enough to have 30-60 days of canned food, rice, and beans on hand.

The markets are once again factoring in nCoV fears as Asia and European markets fall and the US market is down 0.6% (160 pts) prior to open this morning.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-fears-send-stocks-tumbling-again

Schu in Mizzou said:

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The markets are once again factoring in nCoV fears as Asia and European markets fall and the US market is down 0.6% (160 pts) prior to open this morning.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-fears-send-stocks-tumbling-again

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...or it's just another small market fluctuation that happens every day.

Call me when futures are down a thousand points on nCov fears.

China needs to implement widespread cultural changes regarding hygiene,cuisine, and medicine or it will remain a constant threat as a vector for pandemics