Looks like it may be in Africa now.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Give it a couple days....I didn't say they are cancelling. Just said they've got to be discussing it.


If things continue to get worse in China over the next few days, the Superbowl conversation will start to be more public.

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LOL some of you need to get in your bunker.

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Well, look at what that value means and the mathematical consequences.

Quote:

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R0 is pronounced "R naught." It's a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It's also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven't been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

...

Importantly, a disease's R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:

no one has been vaccinated
no one has had the disease before
there's no way to control the spread of the disease

Added:
These all apply in this case because this disease is new and it seems a little late for quarantine


This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine. Many diseases that were deadly in the past can now be contained and sometimes cured. For example, in 1918 there was a worldwide outbreak of the swine flu that killed 50 million people. According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science. The existence of vaccines and antiviral drugs made the 2009 outbreak much less deadly.

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https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues


This means that every infection causes 4 new infections unless people are vaccinated or on lots of antivirals. The problem is that number represents a massive difference in exponential growth from something like a 1.4.

So, the number of infected people after n transmissions between people is R0^n. Let's say you go through 5 transmissions. The 5th transmission with a R0 of 1.4 results in 1.4^5 = 5.3 new infected people. With an R0 of 4, that number is 4^5 = 1024.

I've read that the R0 has been revised down to 2.5. Even at that rate, you'd be looking at 98 new infections after 5 transmissions. Much better, but still bad.

The Fall Guy said:

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Really, cancel the super bowl? Screw it. Just cancel EVERY sporting event, concert, protest, any gathering in the world.

WTF does the super bowl have to do about this?

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There were posters here a couple days ago suggesting Congress should suspend the impeachment trial.

Serious, no joke.

daggertx said:

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Also, medicines are not much use versus this type of virus.

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True -- but I read an article recently talking about cytokine storms and how recent our understanding is (1990s). And it's something that there are medicines to use, but the balance is damping the immune response to prevent the cytokine storm vs allowing the body to respond and fight the virus.

Spanish Flu (R0=1.8) after 10 transmissions is 357
2019-NoCoV (R0=4.0) after 10 transmissions is 1,048,576

Which is why this virus could be a pandemic in a few weeks.

Ah, yes. I remember that year.

This seems like bs

foleyt said:

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This seems like bs

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Is that made out of ground up tiger *****?

Human to human in Canada now.

We need to slow the contagion as much as possible with isolation and good hygiene practices, and I think we should be putting a hold on air travel from China.

I've also taken the step of stocking up on natural anti-virals like green tea, zinc, and elderberry. These have been shown to reduce severity and duration of viral infections.

Quote:

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As the numbers of infected and dead soar exponentially, China has been forced to lock down cities and shutdown factories for the next several weeks. The outbreak of the coronavirus will likely damage first-quarter economic figures for the country, reported the Financial Times.

China has ordered several manufacturing hubs and other centers of the industry to remain closed for the next one to two weeks.

One of those manufacturing hubs is Suzhou, a city west of Shanghai has told millions of workers not to return for at least one week. The industrial region is home to the world's largest factories, including iPhone contractor Foxconn, Johnson & Johnson, and Samsung Electronics.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-closes-foxconn-johnson-johnson-and-samsung-factories-amid-virus-outbreak

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1st Quarter global GDP is going to take a hit. How big? Time will tell. Right now, the factories were closed for LNY. Not a huge deal to extend an additional week. Truckers are going be running lighter loads...

anyone have any good contacts for essential oils?

bmks270 said:

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We need to slow the contagion as much as possible with isolation and good hygiene practices, and I think we should be putting a hold on air travel from China.

I've also taken the step of stocking up on natural anti-virals like green tea, zinc, and elderberry. These have been shown to reduce severity and duration of viral infections.

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Trump could lose the election if he handles this incorrectly. He needs to shut down travel to and from China now.

Maybe contains zinc, which has virus inhibiting properties but it isn't going to stop transmission.

What about the charter they're sending to get US citizens out of Wuhan Tuesday?

I'm not sure if it's been discussed, but the Baylor student is negative for coronavirus.

https://www.baylor.edu/mediacommunications/news.php?action=story&story=216430

Quote:

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Baylor University is pleased to share that the Waco-McLennan County Public Health District (WMCPHD) announced today that test results were negative for Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) for the Baylor student whose samples were sent to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) last week.

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so once you get it, how do they treat it? is it any different than the flu?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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foleyt said:

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This seems like bs

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Is that made out of ground up tiger *****?

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Pffffffffft! That kind is ineffective. Only the rhino horn version works.

On a more serious note, it's Africa, India, Central/South America that are on my radar. Those are areas ripe for unchecked transmission, and generally piss poor healthcare and means to stop it.

The virus spread fast in 27 days.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Human to human in Canada now.

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That's not correct. It appears she travelled to China as well. She could have just had a longer latent period.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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As the numbers of infected and dead soar exponentially, China has been forced to lock down cities and shutdown factories for the next several weeks. The outbreak of the coronavirus will likely damage first-quarter economic figures for the country, reported the Financial Times.

China has ordered several manufacturing hubs and other centers of the industry to remain closed for the next one to two weeks.

One of those manufacturing hubs is Suzhou, a city west of Shanghai has told millions of workers not to return for at least one week. The industrial region is home to the world's largest factories, including iPhone contractor Foxconn, Johnson & Johnson, and Samsung Electronics.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-closes-foxconn-johnson-johnson-and-samsung-factories-amid-virus-outbreak

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1st Quarter global GDP is going to take a hit. How big? Time will tell. Right now, the factories were closed for LNY. Not a huge deal to extend an additional week. Truckers are going be running lighter loads...

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Sh*tters in gas stations across the country are flushing in rejoice

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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bmks270 said:

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We need to slow the contagion as much as possible with isolation and good hygiene practices, and I think we should be putting a hold on air travel from China.

I've also taken the step of stocking up on natural anti-virals like green tea, zinc, and elderberry. These have been shown to reduce severity and duration of viral infections.

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Trump could lose the election if he handles this incorrectly. He needs to shut down travel to and from China now.

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There's a judge in Hawaii who would have something to say about that.

Quote:

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That's not correct. It appears she travelled to China as well. She could have just had a longer latent period.

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And some people are deeply saddened.

It really does seem like some people will not be happy until doomsday occurs, because then they can scream "I WAS RIGHT!"

Solid update from a PhD with background in pathology



Longer sit down interview from Saturday.

I do find it highly questionable that this is spreading exponentially in Wuhan but there has been extremely limited human to human spread outside of that area.

There are two possibilities:
It isn't as infectious/easily spread as feared; or
There will be a huge uptick in cases in 7-14 days as all those that were infected begin to show symptoms (eg those on the plane near the confirmed cases in the US)

foleyt said:

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I do find it highly questionable that this is spreading exponentially in Wuhan but there has been extremely limited human to human spread outside of that area.

There are two possibilities:
It isn't as infectious/easily spread as feared; or
There will be a huge uptick in cases in 7-14 days as all those that were infected begin to show symptoms (eg those on the plane near the confirmed cases in the US)

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I also wouldn't be surprised if the fact that people in China seem to commonly be in places tightly packed with people much more often than your average American plays in role in how fast it's transmitted over there.

No matter the reason, I hope this thing ends up not being as bad as a lot of us fear.

If anything, at least it got me jump started on having a hurricane survival kit ready for this year.

Good news on the slow down front. Looks like with PPE, the spread can and is slowing.

https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=6918012

Took them long enough.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Took them long enough.

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It's the UN, what do you expect? Competence?


Edit: And the article mentions a team of UK Scientists think 100K have been infected, but of course not verified. That in general is what I would think is closer to the truth due to the Chinese government response.

Not just tightly packed but with more compromised immune systems from poor air, water and food quality.