They should have started banning travelers from the affected areas already, or at least subject them to quarantine.
China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission
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Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Aggiebrewer said:
When do they stop letting travelers from China into US?
I mean what is the metric CDC follows?
Sorry if I missed this being answered previously
Seems as if the time is now. Maybe only allowing US citizens would be a good move. Hopefully it's not done too late.
VaultingChemist said:
Coronavirus R0Quote:
We estimated the mean R0 of 2019-nCoV ranging from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) and being 3.98 (95%CI: 3.19-4.92) if the reporting efforts doubled after the diagnostic protocol released on January 17, 2020.
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
BTW this isn't fear mongering. It's a serious public health issue....and yes they are discussing it (very quietly behind closed doors)
The latest R0 figure is really bad. If this disease takes hold anywhere in this country, it will be difficult to control.Mr.Infectious said:VaultingChemist said:
Coronavirus R0Quote:
We estimated the mean R0 of 2019-nCoV ranging from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) and being 3.98 (95%CI: 3.19-4.92) if the reporting efforts doubled after the diagnostic protocol released on January 17, 2020.
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
BTW this isn't fear mongering. It's a serious public health issue....and yes they are discussing it (very quietly behind closed doors)
I bet it's a quick discussion. Way too much of an overreaction.Mr.Infectious said:VaultingChemist said:
Coronavirus R0Quote:
We estimated the mean R0 of 2019-nCoV ranging from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) and being 3.98 (95%CI: 3.19-4.92) if the reporting efforts doubled after the diagnostic protocol released on January 17, 2020.
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
BTW this isn't fear mongering. It's a serious public health issue....and yes they are discussing it (very quietly behind closed doors)
VaultingChemist said:The latest R0 figure is really bad. If this disease takes hold anywhere in this country, it will be difficult to control.Mr.Infectious said:VaultingChemist said:
Coronavirus R0Quote:
We estimated the mean R0 of 2019-nCoV ranging from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) and being 3.98 (95%CI: 3.19-4.92) if the reporting efforts doubled after the diagnostic protocol released on January 17, 2020.
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
BTW this isn't fear mongering. It's a serious public health issue....and yes they are discussing it (very quietly behind closed doors)
That's an incredible R0. I wonder what the highest ever seen has been.
I think Measles is the R0 champion, something like 12 or higher.
It's baked in the math. Exponential growth is a real *****.Quote:
I bet it's a quick discussion. Way too much of an overreaction.
Quote:
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
Superbowl is to soon of an event ... esp given that there hasn't been a large outbreak here at this time.. If this continues though I do wonder what may happen with the Summer Olympic games in Tokyo in July.
Yes something that far out may be impacted.Mac94 said:Quote:
If this is correct, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the NFL meeting today discussing cancelling the SuperBowl. It's not the event itself but all of the parties around the country that will be the biggest concern.
Superbowl is to soon of an event ... esp given that there hasn't been a large outbreak here at this time.. If this continues though I do wonder what may happen with the Summer Olympic games in Tokyo in July.
Thus far the infections in the US are people infected traveling from Wuhan. We haven't had the first case of human to human transmission in the US.
Unless China updates their numbers with something legitimate for their actions, there is no way they are cancelling the Superbowl in a few weeks. There just isn't evidence to the public to justify a cancellation of that magnatude, no matter what some of the scientists may be saying. We aren't a dictatorship contrary to what some people think.
Give it a couple days....I didn't say they are cancelling. Just said they've got to be discussing it.
If things continue to get worse in China over the next few days, the Superbowl conversation will start to be more public.
If things continue to get worse in China over the next few days, the Superbowl conversation will start to be more public.
Y'all know the Superbowl is Sunday, right?
Really, cancel the super bowl? Screw it. Just cancel EVERY sporting event, concert, protest, any gathering in the world.
WTF does the super bowl have to do about this?
WTF does the super bowl have to do about this?
Educate yourself on the way these things spread.
That R0 value is crazy bad. It's all in the math.
If the R0 number originally quoted (above 2 to 5) is correct, its going to be EXTREMELY tough to stop the spread.
Taking actions NOW to slow it down is the only way to bend the curve. Cancelling public events is a good way of doing so.
That R0 value is crazy bad. It's all in the math.
If the R0 number originally quoted (above 2 to 5) is correct, its going to be EXTREMELY tough to stop the spread.
Taking actions NOW to slow it down is the only way to bend the curve. Cancelling public events is a good way of doing so.
Im not going to worry excessively until the survival rate is know from other western (non communist) countries.SoupNazi2001 said:
Isn't China basically closing down business and schools for a few weeks. I may be willing to get the virus for a month off work. I just had the flu, was only really bad for a few days and I lost the holiday weight.
I've had the flu before and it sucks but survivable. If it is more like SARS or MERS then I will worry.
OaklandAg06 said:
I think Measles is the R0 champion, something like 12 or higher.
Yeah. Measles ranges 12-18. Which is why when in crops up in the anti vax community it's such a big headline and frightening. One case in a population that is not immunized is going to spread like a mofo.
You might want to read: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.htmlSoupNazi2001 said:
Isn't China basically closing down business and schools for a few weeks. I may be willing to get the virus for a month off work. I just had the flu, was only really bad for a few days and I lost the holiday weight.
This is serious.
Somewhere between end of the world and the people blowing this off is the answer, but it's looking worse and worse by the minute.
The people blowing this off clearly have no idea how exponential pandemics work.
The people blowing this off clearly have no idea how exponential pandemics work.
One of our engineers was quarantined in Canada after he got back from South Korea this weekend. He had a common cold, it only took them about 8hrs to figure it out which seems not too bad really.
Athanasius said:You might want to read: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.htmlSoupNazi2001 said:
Isn't China basically closing down business and schools for a few weeks. I may be willing to get the virus for a month off work. I just had the flu, was only really bad for a few days and I lost the holiday weight.
This is serious.
Pretty sure this isn't the 1918 Spanish flu. Let me check though.
Oh yes I just realized I'm typing this on an iPhone and not using Morse code, so it's not 1918-1919.
One of the main reasons why the Spanish flu was so deadly was that we didn't have nearly as effective medicines for fighting pneumonia like symptoms. Today we obviously do.
So has air travel......Its not the severity of the illness that the virus causes, its the speed at which it spreads human to human that is the big concern.
R0 over 2 is significant. Under 1 it stops spreading naturally. Over 1 it has legs to spread on its own. Greater than 2, spreads very fast.
R0 over 2 is significant. Under 1 it stops spreading naturally. Over 1 it has legs to spread on its own. Greater than 2, spreads very fast.
Both usernames check out!SoupNazi2001 said:Mr.Infectious said:
Give it a couple days....I didn't say they are cancelling. Just said they've got to be discussing it.
If things continue to get worse in China over the next few days, the Superbowl conversation will start to be more public.
LOL some of you need to get in your bunker.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
As I mentioned earlier, modern hygiene and medicine is a non sequitur. While it may lower overall transmission rates and total mortality, it doesn't change anything about the distribution of the mortality impact.
Consider that the flu still goes around ever year in the US, and that's even with near-zero cost vaccines widely available. And the flu still kills people every year. The concern or danger here is that MERS and SARS both seem to cause death in the same way that the 1918 flu did - by a cytokine storm, which is a kind of runaway autoimmune response. The problem with that is that it doesn't just impact the very young and old and those with compromised immune systems - it actually can be worse for healthy adults.
Look no one is saying to panic. I think it's prudent to casually observe what's going on, be aware that there could be a risk...also be aware that this risk could be high impact with low probability. For me personally if there begin to be pockets outside of Asia with transmission, I'd move from "casually observe" to "cautious concern."
Consider that the flu still goes around ever year in the US, and that's even with near-zero cost vaccines widely available. And the flu still kills people every year. The concern or danger here is that MERS and SARS both seem to cause death in the same way that the 1918 flu did - by a cytokine storm, which is a kind of runaway autoimmune response. The problem with that is that it doesn't just impact the very young and old and those with compromised immune systems - it actually can be worse for healthy adults.
Look no one is saying to panic. I think it's prudent to casually observe what's going on, be aware that there could be a risk...also be aware that this risk could be high impact with low probability. For me personally if there begin to be pockets outside of Asia with transmission, I'd move from "casually observe" to "cautious concern."
Quote:
This is not 1918, medicine and hygiene/living conditions have advanced quite a bit in 100 years.
This is true ... but so has the ability and ease of global travel. And, while medical technology has advance greatly the availability of equipment and expertise can be overwhelmed by shear numbers of patients.
And, btw .. speaking of medicine. So many meds are produced in China and given that is ground zero it is possible that these meds could face supply issues because of the ongoing issues there.
Also, medicines are not much use versus this type of virus.
(Puts on conspiracy hat) what if the overreaction is Xi trying to make a point to trump regarding his tariffs showing he can control in other ways (takes it off and hopes it's just reaction to a flu)
Put down the crack pipe baby
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