We'll see about that. They don't even have a media...or internet.

The irony is North Korea is one place that even epidemic victims probably are not going to try to get into.

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Malaysia hits a triple in the bottom of the first.

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Medal count as of 1/24. Judges are looking into China for possible cheating....

Edit: this list doesn't include Australia and Nepal.

Three continents and counting. We all know Africa has it but.....well, it's Africa.

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https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/coronavirus-tennessee-test-results-negative-individual-tested-cookeville-tech-student-cdc-says/4572158002/

Tennessee Tech student negative

basketaggie said:

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https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/coronavirus-tennessee-test-results-negative-individual-tested-cookeville-tech-student-cdc-says/4572158002/

Tennessee Tech student negative

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Maybe they can get a sense of which dates flights would be more iffy. This case might provide an example of a `still okay' point depending on when got here.

Erudite?

foleyt said:

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Erudite?

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[Cut off]
No we cannot,
We begin diagnostics now.
The big hospitals are dead (overloaded)
They are sending them all to the local area hospitals (In china there local "hospitals" in each district and large village).
Issue is these local area hospitals don't have equipment.

Depending where you are local hospital did not even have electricity (this was in Tibet) or x-ray machines.

Bottom image:
It says Wuhan district fourth hospital (cut off) on the door
Poster says:
Emergency Medical procedures!!!
Personnel are infected!
Stop (all) diagnostics (In China diagnostics/treatment not in same area)!
Quarantine and disinfect!

Well Fuch

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047631/china-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-41-over-1000-cases-infection

Doctor died.

?itok=GVlBc7yn&v=15799

Looks like a regular hospital day in china to me.

Edit: THIS IS WHY PEOPLE GET INFECTED. TOO MANY PEOPLE/SQUARE MILE

https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/01/24/9052151.html
Use google translate. Site is pretty non-biased but is banned in china.Good update to situation for those just joining the show.

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Short story sounds like this isn't going to be over anytime soon....

Can anyone chime in on what this Dr. is saying?

Btw - his bio..

Quote:

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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

His work focuses on the intersection of health economics and public policy. He also currently works on behavioral interventions for prevention, Medicare cost and quality improvements, evidence guideline improvements for nutrition, diabetes/obesity prevention, public health policy programs, drug safety reform, and food economics in the US. He has further expertise in public health program design, policy implementation, and leveraging big data for improving health systems.

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repsones

So, I'm reading on this thread, And in the associated links, lots of concerns about transmission. Particularly the rate of transmission and that transmission may happen before symptoms appear. Got it.

But what's missing in the discussion is the severity of the illness. Even in the most recent linked article from infectious the mortality rate is 3%, With almost all of the deaths occurring in people over the age of 70 with pre-existing conditions.

So is this like a common cold that most people recover from it a few days,

Or is this something that is going to kill young healthy people.

And how long does recovery require?

I think the issue is it is a much higher mortality rate than the flu, and if it does have one more mutation...it could be pretty bad. 3 to 4 percent mortality is not good on an uncontrollable virus.

For folks with auto-immune conditions etc. mortality rates might rise up into the high teens. The interesting/scary impact might be a widespread pandemic with it in locales without a lot of healthcare services, like, oh, say Africa.

Rock1982 said:

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So, I'm reading on this thread, And in the associated links, lots of concerns about transmission. Particularly the rate of transmission and that transmission may happen before symptoms appear. Got it.

But what's missing in the discussion is the severity of the illness. Even in the most recent linked article from infectious the mortality rate is 3%, With almost all of the deaths occurring in people over the age of 70 with pre-existing conditions.

So is this like a common cold that most people recover from it a few days,

Or is this something that is going to kill young healthy people.

And how long does recovery require?

---

These were posted on this thread, but they probably need to be reposted:


Lancet article on Coronavirus that studied 41 cases with 6 deaths.

Read, et al Study on Novel Coronavirus that the doctor above was tweeting about.

The lancet article needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Earliest diagnosed cases were probably more severe than avg patient. Not that the information isn't valuable, just may be overstating severity

foleyt said:

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The lancet article needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Earliest diagnosed cases were probably more severe than avg patient. Not that the information isn't valuable, just may be overstating severity

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I agree, but with a sample size of 41 patients, 13 were sent to ICU, and 6 died. Those are distressing numbers.

The Eric guy above is referencing an older version of that paper btw. Below tweet is author

Lets say a true pandemic, 1/3 of us gets it, 3% fatal, thats over 3 million american dead in one month. Plus the 1/3 of rest of the country out of work, plus everyone totally freaked out.

foleyt said:

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The Eric guy above is referencing an older version of that paper btw. Below tweet is author

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The R0 value is identical to the Spanish Influenza of 1918.

Good lord the Pandemic series on Netflix could not be any more well timed

I am watching it at this moment. Scary but you know what. Our population on this earth is too high.

I believe these viruses are here to keep it in check. It's only a matter of time.

erudite said:

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Also, one of the lessons to take away from this today:
There was a video posted back about several doctors/nurses having breakdowns and crying their eyes out. I think that also might happen in the US if such an outbreak was to occur but on a larger scale. In China doctors don't get paid much and generally are not the top earners unlike the US, but earn above average.

There's a difference between people who are in it for the money, and people who genuine love what they do...

Like my grandmother says. The job of medical professions is a risk trade off, if there is an outbreak you WILL be overworked. But that is a risk you must be willing to take alongside infection and death if you truly wish to be a doctor.

The people who treating people on that outbreak and manage to stay strong are real heroes. I cannot say the same with those who are desperately trying to get out.

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I can promise you that we're always overworked. I'm not even in a procedural field and frequently work 12 consecutive days of 12-14 hours a day. In residency there were times I worked 27-28 days of the month at that pace.

People who don't love it generally don't last long.

To put things in perspective from the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918/19 and mutation to a less deadly strain.... the numbers alone shocked me. Didn't realized it killed roughly 3% to 5% of worlds population.

Quote:

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In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city

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The Fall Guy said:

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I am watching it at this moment. Scary but you know what. Our population on this earth is too high.

I believe these viruses are here to keep it in check. It's only a matter of time.

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Complete myth. You could place every person on the planet shoulder to shoulder, front to back and fit all 7.8 billon of us in Los Angeles. Not Los Angeles county, just LA proper. 95% of humans live on 8.5% of the surface area, and 80% of the land surface area on earth is either minimally inhabited or not inhabited at all by humans.

It's also a myth that most insufficient resources are due to overpopulation. The biggest problem with most resources is production with the most common rate limiting step being man power.

PDEMDHC said:

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To put things in perspective from the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918/19 and mutation to a less deadly strain.... the numbers alone shocked me. Didn't realized it killed roughly 3% to 5% of worlds population.

Quote:

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In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city

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The problem with the Spanish flu is that it generated an unusually strong cytokine storm which led to ARDS, DIC and death from respiratory failure and circulatory shock. This meant those with the strongest immune systems often did the worst, and who was traveling around the world at the time? Millions of young, healthy soldiers.

Time to go up a defcon level, gonna stockpile supplies today

azulAg said:

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Time to go up a defcon level, gonna stockpile supplies today

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Like what?

Bleach?
Food?
Beer?

Water, food, disinfectants.

Calling it now!

A&M shuts down Monday.