wannaggie said:

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Rapier108 said:

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The panic and hysteria reminds me of the Ebola outbreak. Every day there were new "cases" reported in Dallas, people claiming it was hundreds or more infected or being tested for it.

Thus the age of Twitter when anyone can post anything, and it gets retweeted and posted elsewhere millions of times, all without any verification.

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The one-click retweeting / sharing / reposting of modern social media China is terrible for information integrity.
A handful of incidents can spread virally (ironic) and echo back and forth so quickly that the "chatter" ends up appearing to be hundreds or even thousands of incidents.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "statistics".

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fify

Zemira said:

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Per the Lancet article there were 41 confirmed cases is Wuhan as of January 2. How does that tie with any of the numbers coming from the Chinese government?

It's been 22 days and only 800 cases more, but they are shutting down cities? Why quarantine 35 million for 25 people dying? If that 15% mortality rate is correct, and it's spreading rapidly and takes 8 days to have symptoms. My guesstimate us at least 10,000 cases and 1500 dead.

I believe absolutely nothing coming out if the Chinese government.

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I wouldn't trust the Chinese if they said the sky was blue.

It is possible they are terrified of it getting loose and their response is intended to stop that, anything else be damned. They would rather overreact than under react. Saving face is extremely important to the Chinese.

I see China burying those who have it in mass graves before they let anyone know the truth.

Mr.Infectious said:

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15% is what it kills. Think about those that survive. Pneumonia is a brutal illness that takes weeks to recover from.

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As a comparison, the Spanish Flu Pandemic killed 390,000 of the 23,000,000 infected in Japan. That calculates to a 1.7% mortality rate.

Zemira said:

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Per the Lancet article there were 41 confirmed cases is Wuhan as of January 2. How does that tie with any of the numbers coming from the Chinese government?

It's been 22 days and only 800 cases more, but they are shutting down cities? Why quarantine 35 million for 25 people dying? If that 15% mortality rate is correct, and it's spreading rapidly and takes 8 days to have symptoms. My guesstimate us at least 10,000 cases and 1500 dead.

I believe absolutely nothing coming out if the Chinese government.

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This virus may not impact the rest of the world but it could decimate the population of these cities. A government doesn't barricade roads or build acute hospitals like this if these numbers are accurate. Or <puts tinfoil on> there is something much much larger in play here.

VaultingChemist said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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15% is what it kills. Think about those that survive. Pneumonia is a brutal illness that takes weeks to recover from.

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As a comparison, the Spanish Flu Pandemic killed 390,000 of the 23,000,000 infected in Japan. That calculates to a 1.7% rate.

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The death rate of the Spanish Flu was 10% to 20%.

Rapier108 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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15% is what it kills. Think about those that survive. Pneumonia is a brutal illness that takes weeks to recover from.

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As a comparison, the Spanish Flu Pandemic killed 390,000 of the 23,000,000 infected in Japan. That calculates to a 1.7% rate.

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The death rate of the Spanish Flu was 10% to 20%.

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Not in Japan. I was trying to find a comparable Asian culture to China.

I have no idea about anything, but it seems to me also, that an overreaction in China could also be explained by the creation of protocols and plans created to deal with SARS (ie a "what are we gonna do if this happens again") and so now a couple decades later, they have those buttons to push, and if you ever will, this seems to be the time to implement them.

JJxvi said:

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I have no idea about anything, but it seems to me also, that an overreaction in China could also be explained by the creation of protocols and plans created to deal with SARS (ie a "what are we gonna do if this happens again") and so now a couple decades later, they have those buttons to push, and if you ever will, this seems to be the time to implement them.

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It just doesn't seem that smoothly implemented though. Maybe you have to be communist to understand China and how they think.

Zemira said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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KidDoc said:

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From that Lancet article of the first 41 patients 55% developed shortness of breath and 29% acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). 32% admitted to ICU and 15% died.

That is concerning.

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15% Mortality rate is very concerning!

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If those statistics are remotely true, it's no wonder China is closing cities. As someone mentioned though if no food/medical supplies/people in it out it's going to get bad very quickly.

I don't think the Chinese are right to quarantine cities, but closing their borders and air travel would be a good step to prevent the spread to other places in the world.

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Maybe not, but to a powerful regime like that, that seems like the first immediate thing to do--its the first impulse. Then they take it from there how to deal with the details. And of course we don' t have to wait for them if we want to close air travel (should) from there.

On the other side of the equation, some of those videos definitely looked either staged or psychosomatic. Those are not genuine lose energy and toppled to the ground. You don't land like being arranged for a stretcher.

Quote:

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This isn't something to panic about yet. It is something to keep a wary eye on though. Three main differences, Ebola is has a terrible transmission rate largely due to the fact that it isn't an aerosol or a very very ineffective aerosol transmission virus. It appears that the coronovirus is with legions in the lungs. The Ebola outbreaks did not occur during what is the annual largest mass movement of people in a country or region in the world.

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aezmvp,
What did you mean to say in the bold --that looks contorted but important?

Ebola is super dangerous and rated the hype --- because of the way it appeared. If it ever got going among a bunch of tenements and crowded occupation low grade housing area (it was near some believe) it would sweep through before getting adequately reported and combated. But yes, it would be easier to contain--especially by exactly the Chinese methods---total blunt quarantine restricting contact waiting for it to run its course. The ones couldn't save would die quick.

Ervin Burrell said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Ah yes we can certainly count on the ever trustful Chinese people to self report their illness and not hide it.

Why do our politicians continue to think that everyone on the planet behaves like Westerners? These people are utterly brain dead.

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LOL at thinking most Westerners aren't "brain dead" either.

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I was referring to our politicians.

China curtailing information flow.. shocking

titan said:

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Quote:

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This isn't something to panic about yet. It is something to keep a wary eye on though. Three main differences, Ebola is has a terrible transmission rate largely due to the fact that it isn't an aerosol or a very very ineffective aerosol transmission virus. It appears that the coronovirus is with legions in the lungs. The Ebola outbreaks did not occur during what is the annual largest mass movement of people in a country or region in the world.

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aezmvp,
What did you mean to say in the bold --that looks contorted but important?

Ebola is super dangerous and rated the hype --- because of the way it appeared. If it ever got going among a bunch of tenements and crowded occupation low grade housing area (it was near some believe) it would sweep through before getting adequately reported and combated. But yes, it would be easier to contain--especially by exactly the Chinese methods---total blunt quarantine restricting contact waiting for it to run its course. The ones couldn't save would die quick.

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Sorry, so through some of the documentation that I read is that some of the later symptoms include legions within the lungs, these can burst then releasing more of the virus particles into the lungs which is ejected via coughing or sneezing and that is how the aerosol transmission occurs in the form of those particles that are expelled via that mechanism. Ebola is somewhat different in that it is hemorrhagic. The blood and other bodily fluids, potentially including blood in the lungs can transmit the disease but the virus doesn't attack the lungs in the same fashion. If I remember correctly (and I am not a doc) it has particular affinity for the GI tract, kidneys and such but other factors (like any disease) can be attacked like ulcers, heart disease, etc. Aerosol is the more concerning disease vector. I haven't read yet on how long it can stay viable out in the open, those studies are probably being rushed in the 1st world countries where this has popped up (Singapore, Japan, Korea, US, UK). China probably has an idea but I haven't seen anything and don't speak Mandarin.

It's not 90k dead, it's 90k infected. With a 15% mortality rate and a mutating virus that is spreading faster, this could be very bad.

Thanks. So it wasn't a typo. You did mean to say legions. Realize I was wondering if you meant lesions in the lungs. I understand the difference, and your explanation there now puts all in context. And yes, Ebola is not similar. A coronavirus is worse in the transmission sense if aerosol vector involved.

titan said:

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Thanks. So it wasn't a typo. You did mean to say legions. Realize I was wondering if you meant lesions in the lungs. I understand the difference, and your explanation there now puts all in context. And yes, Ebola is not similar. A coronavirus is worse in the transmission sense if aerosol vector involved.

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You are correct sir. Sorry on a mobile and it's autocorrecting me. DYAC!

Um yeah that's insane.

scottimus said:

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wannaggie said:

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Rapier108 said:

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The panic and hysteria reminds me of the Ebola outbreak. Every day there were new "cases" reported in Dallas, people claiming it was hundreds or more infected or being tested for it.

Thus the age of Twitter when anyone can post anything, and it gets retweeted and posted elsewhere millions of times, all without any verification.

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The one-click retweeting / sharing / reposting of modern social media China is terrible for information integrity.
A handful of incidents can spread virally (ironic) and echo back and forth so quickly that the "chatter" ends up appearing to be hundreds or even thousands of incidents.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "statistics".

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fify

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Un-fify.

China has nothing to do with the choices of a couple hundred million Americans wasting time on their phones tapping buttons. China had nothing to do with the claims that hundreds of people in Dallas had Ebola.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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It's not 90k dead, it's 90k infected. With a 15% mortality rate and a mutating virus that is spreading faster, this could be very bad.

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If that is true, that person may suffer the same fate as the brave protestor in tianemen square.

She could also be a Hong Konger spreading disinformation about the Chinese....Just saying.

No, Chinese commie govt has that mastered already.

No matter what is true of these videos, shutting down Wuhan would be like shutting down LA. It's got to be a pretty major outbreak.

NSA and CIA have to have assets on the ground that at least know what some of the reports are saying are true or not. Are they seeing more like just empty streets under a super-curfew but not much disruption, or are there really large groups of people falling sick and to the ground and acres of emergency hospital tents being built?

That's the kind of thing you only have to be there to know. We must have that kind of info by now--- or South Korea and Japan soon would I would think.

Now none of that tells you much about the virus, but it would allow you to rule out what it is or is not doing.

lunchbox said:

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Non google translation from native speaker here:
The (state of) Hubei has sealed off the road crossing to Hunan!
I am furiously swiping the screen (Wechat updates via swiping), not to cause an atmosphere of panic!
But I am here to tell you the real, up to date local information. And of the updated preventative measures.
Last line has two translations:
Begin: Under authority we are all but ants (read: We don't know anything)
More malevolent: Under authoritarianism we are all but ants!

Here is translation for first video:
Video dated, morning Jan 24th, also known as the last day of lunar new year (USUALLY A HOLIDAY).
In wuhan's Caidian district's Zhinyin lake (Editor note: Cannot find it on maps).There is a construction based off of Xiaotangshan field hospital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiaotangshan,_Beijing).Visible are hundreds of excavators at work and several lines of heavy equipment awaiting orders. Per local sources, the construction based off of the Xiaotangshang field hospital is expected to be around 25,000 square meters. Able to host up to 1000 beds for the sick. Estimated time to completion: 6 days.

2nd video is overhashing much of the same except for the following statement at the end:
According to our station sources, the movement was first seen near midnight of yesterday and so far we have scant information from government sources.

Here is translation:
Good day everyone, my name is JinGui I am as of now still stationed in the Hankou (downtown Wuhan). I will report to everyone the state of Hubei and national status of the disease. Right now there are 90,000 infections at minimum. The infection of a person who has not been adequately quarantined/treated will cause at least infections of 14 people. I know that most people are getting ready for lunar new year. To meet with family and to eat a family dinner. This year is special, I hope everyone does not go out of doors, do not meet people, do not go out to eat. As long as everyone is well, you can meet later on better terms.

Video part two:
I have very bad news, preliminary government info has stated that the virus has further mutated into a 2nd generation. In other words, in the first generation, we could treat the patient. Upon the 2nd stage evolution the virus is lethal, the infection ratio is no longer 1:14, but is explosive (exponential). Everyone must hold strong, do not go outside, do not meet people, do not eat out. Thank you everyone.

Send me anything in Chinese and I can translate it aside from maybe the local accents.

VaultingChemist said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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15% is what it kills. Think about those that survive. Pneumonia is a brutal illness that takes weeks to recover from.

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As a comparison, the Spanish Flu Pandemic killed 390,000 of the 23,000,000 infected in Japan. That calculates to a 1.7% mortality rate.

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The 15% number is utterly meaningless.

You cannot compare a rough estimate of reported cases within the first few weeks of an evolving situation, to historically well-researched and carefully calibrated unchanging data from a century ago.

In the beginning, the very young, very old, immuno-compromised, comorbidity with other diseases/syndromes, and those who have some natural specific susceptibility, etc. are the ones who get visibly sick, SEEK TREATMENT, and die.

For all we know, 80 million people in China are already infected but have no symptoms, have not sought any treatment, and will not progress to any significant illness, meaning the total mortality rate may actually only be 0.007%.

These kinds of numbers simply will not be known to any certainty for a year or so.
Any such "facts" in this thread are entirely arbitrary and of no value.

The integrity of social media is....well, I don't even have to address that.

China is a country, and the integrity of their information should be forthright...especially now.

scottimus said:

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The integrity of social media is....well, I don't even have to address that.

China is a country, and the integrity of their information should be forthright...especially now.

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See the above translations.

I suspect, there is due to the wording of Xi's response to the outbreak a few power plays in action right now.

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So I just read the US is investigating 63 cases of the virus. Here's a question. For every case reported through a hospital, how many are people who don't seek medical attention, at least at this point. I feel like every time we hear numbers in the news, it's like 5 days old.

Thank you for translating!

If that is even half-way true about the shifting change it strongly points to this is a bio-weapon that got loose.

If true, (and our government should have an idea) it means the impeachment and every other complaint about Trump should be immediately dismissed, all that deferred till the election, and the government put its full attention to the kind of FDR management a pandemic could require.

Zemira said:

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Thank you for the translations!

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I was going to post the same thing. Thanks erudite.