They weren't lost to deaths. The March numbers will be recoup most of that

Quote:

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Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers -- who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region -- canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

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IrishTxAggie said:

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They weren't lost to deaths. The March numbers will be recoup most of that

Quote:

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Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers -- who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region -- canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

---

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Also, there are more cell phone lines in China than people. It's not surprising that luxuries such as a second line would be cut back during a time when income is interrupted.

still

like 40k Chinese died

on the low end

Still....nothing to do with the loss of 21MM cell lines

Quote:

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Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte has been widely criticised by labour groups after he ordered police to shoot dead residents who break quarantine rules.

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He is serious about that quarantine.

Jump to the 12 minute mark for the interview with infectious disease specialist Dr. Stephen Smith on his use of hydroxychloroquine.



Edit: the video was edited down to just 20 seconds. Not sure why, but last night it was the entire show. Probably got a copyright complaint.

You either meant 12 second mark or you linked the wrong video.

OnlyForNow said:

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You either meant 12 second mark or you linked the wrong video.

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It's a little after 12 minutes, closer to 12:30. It's a little disjointed, but worth the few minutes to watch.

OnlyForNow said:

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You either meant 12 second mark or you linked the wrong video.

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They changed the video. Last night it was the entire show.

I'm not arguing I'm saying based on the link posted. It's only a 20 second clip.

OnlyForNow said:

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I'm not arguing I'm saying based on the link posted. It's only a 20 second clip.

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Yeah, I see that now. They changed the link in just the last hour or so. I posted the original video on the hydroxychloroquine thread on the COVID forum just this morning, and then they changed the video that the link pointed to. I'll post my summary below so you can get the gist of the original interview. It was an interesting interview on several fronts, although it's a bit disjointed.

A quick and dirty recap:

- ID Clinic in NY has 70+ COVID patients. The majority are diabetic, pre-diabetic, and/or obese, so lots of high risk folks. Mentions some study from Seattle that zeroes in on the high incidence of diabetes and obesity among serious COVID patients and that this probably isn't getting enough attention

- He's giving hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax to all of his patients and has not lost any yet.

- of the ~20 patients who needed to be intubated they all came to the clinic fairly late in the infection and had been on the protocol for 2 days or less prior to intubation.


- here's the big point: none if the patients that had been on the protocol for even 3 days needed to be intubated. He agrees that the protocol is a game-changer.

- he is concerned about side-effects of the protocol, especially given most of his patients have other risk factors, so they've been monitoring EKGs. Only two EKGs showed any concerning readings after starting the protocol.

GarlandAg2012 said:

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Ouch. From the top rope!

GarlandAg2012 said:

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Its a fair criticism that our testing response wasn't immediate and "strong". I just don't see how you can separate those decisions from the lies and propaganda spread by the WHO and China at the same time.

Trump did mediocre, but opening things up to our private industry has let us surpass almost every other country outside of Korea and maybe Japan on measuring and handling this thing.

I don't think he was diagnosed on Jan 19. We didn't find that out until about six weeks later.

But. Sentiment is right on. WHO is a joke.

Quote:

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The man who would become Patient Zero for the new coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. appeared to do everything right. He arrived Jan. 19 at an urgent-care clinic in a suburb north of Seattle with a slightly elevated temperature and a cough he'd developed soon after returning four days earlier from a visit with family in Wuhan, China.


The 35-year-old had seen a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alert about the virus and decided to get checked. He put on a mask in the waiting room. After learning about his travel, the clinic drew blood and took nasal and throat swabs, and called state and county health officials, who hustled the sample onto an overnight flight to the CDC lab in Atlanta. The patient was told to stay in isolation at home, and health officials checked on him the next morning.



The test came back positive that afternoon, Jan. 20, the first confirmed case in the U.S.

---

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

Presumed positive on the 19th. Positive on the 20th.


What we found out weeks later was that there was community spread. They THOUGHT they traced and quarantined everyone the man had been in contact with, but at least one contact was missed. And that's all it took.

Keegan99 said:

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This tweet was January 14th.

Patient zero in Washington arrived on January 15th, and was diagnosed on January 19th.

By that point, community spread in Washington was underway.

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Probably the foremost example of an organization wholly failing its primary purpose in our lifetimes.

People keep railing about the slow response regarding testing, but to really be on top of this to the point we could have actually contained it, we would to have taken drastic steps several weeks before the WHO was still saying no evidence of human to human transmission in China, to be ready to produce tests, shut down our borders to international travel, and begin testing, contact tracing, and quarantining. I think anyone who's honest with themselves would have said that going on that type of war footing in late Dec or early Jan would have been viewed as a gross overreaction fueled by paranoia and xenophobia.


Even if you believe the administration was moving too slowly in late Jan and early Feb, I don't think that would have changed the game. That was already too late to insulate ourselves from this. Moving more quickly during that time period might have bought us a few more weeks, but the horse was out of the barn at that point.

The only way we could have hoped to really stretch out and greatly reduce the severity would have been if we had straight info in early to mid-Dec, reacted quickly to the info, and didn't misstep along the way (like with the test manufacturing snafu).

But, given the significant % of false results from every mass-produced version of the test except for the test the CDV tried to produce, even testing wouldn't have been enough. We would have had to have all incoming travelers self-quarantine. But even that likely wouldn't have been enough given our society's free and independent streak, so we probably would have had to go to enforced quarantining or shutting off all travel, period.

Ah gotcha. You're right.

Looks like we cross the 1,000,000 REPORTED cases threshold either later today or early tomorrow. We all know its more than that since the ChiComs lie; but still...

Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The man who would become Patient Zero for the new coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. appeared to do everything right. He arrived Jan. 19 at an urgent-care clinic in a suburb north of Seattle with a slightly elevated temperature and a cough he'd developed soon after returning four days earlier from a visit with family in Wuhan, China.


The 35-year-old had seen a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alert about the virus and decided to get checked. He put on a mask in the waiting room. After learning about his travel, the clinic drew blood and took nasal and throat swabs, and called state and county health officials, who hustled the sample onto an overnight flight to the CDC lab in Atlanta. The patient was told to stay in isolation at home, and health officials checked on him the next morning.



The test came back positive that afternoon, Jan. 20, the first confirmed case in the U.S.

---

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

Presumed positive on the 19th. Positive on the 20th.


What we found out weeks later was that there was community spread. They THOUGHT they traced and quarantined everyone the man had been in contact with, but at least one contact was missed. And that's all it took.

---

They keep calling this guy patient zero but I don't believe that everyone in the US was infected from this one person. There were others. We were too late to respond and shut down travel, as were other countries. Some of the spread into the US came from Europe for sure.

Yes, we know there was more than one by genetic sequencing. Some of our outbreak came from the Iranian family tree.

GarlandAg2012 said:

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Another misleading perspective is comparing the response of the US to South Korea.

Many Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan) lived thru the SARS epidemic and had plans in place to prevent and contain the next epidemic.

US and many Western countries haven't experienced a significant pandemic since the Spanish Flu.

Did South Korea have a better response than the US? Of course.

South Korea had been preparing for the last 20 years.

US wasn't prepared and that's the fault of Bush and Obama as much as Trump.

A better comparison is the US response vs Italy or Spain.

The FDA is making more people eligible to donate blood, relaxing rules involving gay men, and those who had a tattoo.

dmart90 said:

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Looks like we cross the 1,000,000 REPORTED cases threshold either later today or early tomorrow. We all know its more than that since the ChiComs lie; but still...

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Already there, according to Worldometer.

1,000,938 cases, 51,375 deaths as of this post.

Bobcat06 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Another misleading perspective is comparing the response of the US to South Korea.

Many Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan) lived thru the SARS epidemic and had plans in place to prevent and contain the next epidemic.

US and many Western countries haven't experienced a significant pandemic since the Spanish Flu.

Did South Korea have a better response than the US? Of course.

South Korea had been preparing for the last 20 years.

US wasn't prepared and that's the fault of Bush and Obama as much as Trump.

A better comparison is the US response vs Italy or Spain.

---

Another theory re SK which someone posted on the COVID board is that SK has a high incidence of TB, and widely vaccinates with BCG. There is a theory that this is a prophylactic against coronavirus. it's interesting and if it bore out, might be a huge part of SK's success in dealing with it.

Preliminary research is finding considerably "excess mortality" in Italy, Spain, and France.

I would imagine many of those are probably attributable to not having adequate medical resources to care for other serious issues that aren't related to CV.

DTP02 said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Another misleading perspective is comparing the response of the US to South Korea.

Many Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan) lived thru the SARS epidemic and had plans in place to prevent and contain the next epidemic.

US and many Western countries haven't experienced a significant pandemic since the Spanish Flu.

Did South Korea have a better response than the US? Of course.

South Korea had been preparing for the last 20 years.

US wasn't prepared and that's the fault of Bush and Obama as much as Trump.

A better comparison is the US response vs Italy or Spain.

---

Another theory re SK which someone posted on the COVID board is that SK has a high incidence of TB, and widely vaccinates with BCG. There is a theory that this is a prophylactic against coronavirus. it's interesting and if it bore out, might be a huge part of SK's success in dealing with it.

---

You don't need theories about the South Koreans. It's simple. South Korea handled the coronavirus because they have laws in place that allow the Minister of Health to suspend constitutional rights during a health crisis. For example, the SK government can:

• collect data without a warrant, such as health records, surveillance footage, employment information, credit card histories, and cellular geolocation. This is possible with confirmed and potential infected. There is no legal criteria for determining what "potential infected" means. It basically means anyone.
• shut down all public gatherings, including religious.
• put an app on your phone that reports your location and activity to the government in real time.
• disclose private information to others if you are confirmed infected. For example, a cell phone app that tells you when an infected person is nearby. It's "Amber Alert" style in that you can't turn it off.

With that kind of power, it's relatively easy to contact-trace and control the spread of a virus. It is misleading to compare the SK and US response because the US can't compete with that.

Interesting read: Lawfare: How SK used law to fight C19

Bobcat06 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

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Another misleading perspective is comparing the response of the US to South Korea.

Many Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan) lived thru the SARS epidemic and had plans in place to prevent and contain the next epidemic.

US and many Western countries haven't experienced a significant pandemic since the Spanish Flu.

Did South Korea have a better response than the US? Of course.

South Korea had been preparing for the last 20 years.

US wasn't prepared and that's the fault of Bush and Obama as much as Trump.

A better comparison is the US response vs Italy or Spain.

---

We will see who does better by the end of all this.

So far Italy and Spain have fared the worst. But both look to be topping out around 800 or so deaths/day at this point.

We obviously have a much larger population (5.5X Italy and 7X Spain). We would need days of 6,000 deaths/day to be faring worse proportionately.

That isn't out of the question. We are at 1,000 deaths/day right now and are climbing with New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana all getting worse.

There will be a 9/11 Commission style investigation at the end of this and I promise that some blame will be thrown around at the federal, state and local levels.

Thomas Ford 91 said:

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DTP02 said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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GarlandAg2012 said:

---

---

Another misleading perspective is comparing the response of the US to South Korea.

Many Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan) lived thru the SARS epidemic and had plans in place to prevent and contain the next epidemic.

US and many Western countries haven't experienced a significant pandemic since the Spanish Flu.

Did South Korea have a better response than the US? Of course.

South Korea had been preparing for the last 20 years.

US wasn't prepared and that's the fault of Bush and Obama as much as Trump.

A better comparison is the US response vs Italy or Spain.

---

Another theory re SK which someone posted on the COVID board is that SK has a high incidence of TB, and widely vaccinates with BCG. There is a theory that this is a prophylactic against coronavirus. it's interesting and if it bore out, might be a huge part of SK's success in dealing with it.

---

You don't need theories about the South Koreans. It's simple. South Korea handled the coronavirus because they have laws in place that allow the Minister of Health to suspend constitutional rights during a health crisis. For example, the SK government can:

• collect data without a warrant, such as health records, surveillance footage, employment information, credit card histories, and cellular geolocation. This is possible with confirmed and potential infected. There is no legal criteria for determining what "potential infected" means. It basically means anyone.
• shut down all public gatherings, including religious.
• put an app on your phone that reports your location and activity to the government in real time.
• disclose private information to others if you are confirmed infected. For example, a cell phone app that tells you when an infected person is nearby. It's "Amber Alert" style in that you can't turn it off.

With that kind of power, it's relatively easy to contact-trace and control the spread of a virus. It is misleading to compare the SK and US response because the US can't compete with that.

Interesting read: Lawfare: How SK used law to fight C19

---

I'm aware of the difference in response and capabilities. There is also a potential medical explanation.

Thomas Ford 91 said:

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Preliminary research is finding considerably "excess mortality" in Italy, Spain, and France.

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Not to mention countries like Germany attributing deaths to other comorbidities present in their covid patients. We have no idea what the true numbers are there.

Quote:

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Not to mention countries like Germany attributing deaths to other comorbidities present in their covid patients. We have no idea what the true numbers are there.

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I have not found any other source that states this besides TexAgs. Their current numbers are more or less in line with expected values.