Good stuff. Thank you.

Also good sign.

why doesn't he ask someone in the queue what they are waiting for?

Galborathelion said:

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This is interesting, but kind of meaningless without more context. Could those be 15 million phones disconnected due to unemployment, i.e. work phones being turned off for a month?

WestAustinAg said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Informative timeline of the virus.



The city of Wuhan held a banquet for 100,000 people with shared plates near the epicenter of the outbreak on January 18.

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If you missed this video from 1/29 you should watch it. It comes from an American who lives in China and has Youtube vlog channel (now non-monetized) where he offers pretty honest and sometimes scathing critique of life in China. Laowhy86 has been in China for 10 years and is married to a Chinese wife with 2 small children.

This video provides more detail on the month of January and how China CCP reacted to the early outbreak.

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Really interesting. Lots to unpack. My takeaway,
Don't live in China and China may have killed more people than the virus to keep people from the truth.

TCTTS said:

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https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-china-exonerates-whistleblower-doctor-warned

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Many days late and many lives short. F* China

TCTTS said:

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https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-china-exonerates-whistleblower-doctor-warned

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Quote:

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4:40 p.m.: Two Washington state nursing home patients have recovered
Two patients from the Life Care Center of Kirkland nursing home who tested positive for COVID-19 have recovered and are now testing negative, nursing home officials announced Friday.
The Life Care Center of Kirkland was deeply impacted by the coronavirus, with 33 patients dying since the outbreak began. This potentially includes elderly people who died without having coronavirus, officials said.

The nursing home now has 42 residents, 31 of whom tested positive for coronavirus and 11 who tested negative, officials said.
Of the estimated 180 employees, 55 have tested positive, officials said. Eleven are waiting test results.

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Holy crap that was devastating there.

Mordred said:

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Galborathelion said:

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This is interesting, but kind of meaningless without more context. Could those be 15 million phones disconnected due to unemployment, i.e. work phones being turned off for a month?

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My earlier sarcastic comment was it was the real number of dead.

I think it is probably the number of people who didn't want the phone spying on them.

This thread is huge so it's probably been discussed but has anyone discussed the possibility that flattening the curve is just giving this thing enough time to mutate and become more deadly?

It's probably just rumors but a couple friends that work in hospitals are saying more otherwise healthy young people are ending up in ICU.

hennyj15 said:

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This thread is huge so it's probably been discussed but has anyone discussed the possibility that flattening the curve is just giving this thing enough time to mutate and become more deadly?

It's probably just rumors but a couple friends that work in hospitals are saying more otherwise healthy young people are ending up in ICU.

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Italy and China have warned about the young and healthy getting very sick. This isn't new info.

AgsMyDude said:

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hennyj15 said:

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This thread is huge so it's probably been discussed but has anyone discussed the possibility that flattening the curve is just giving this thing enough time to mutate and become more deadly?

It's probably just rumors but a couple friends that work in hospitals are saying more otherwise healthy young people are ending up in ICU.

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Italy and China have warned about the young and healthy getting very sick. This isn't new info.

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Yep. I think people hear what they want to hear and young people think that there is no chance this thing will knock them down.

hennyj15 said:

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This thread is huge so it's probably been discussed but has anyone discussed the possibility that flattening the curve is just giving this thing enough time to mutate and become more deadly?

It's probably just rumors but a couple friends that work in hospitals are saying more otherwise healthy young people are ending up in ICU.

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1. Viruses naturally evolve to become less deadly over time based on natural selection. Very rarely do more deadly second waves occur.

2. This virus hospitalizes 20% of all age groups. More dumb 20 yos saying "I'm young so it wont affect me" = more 20 yos in the hospital.

Bobcat06 said:

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1. Viruses naturally evolve to become less deadly over time based on natural selection. Very rarely do more deadly second waves occur.

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This reminded me of something I read this today while reading up on H1N1 and I found it fascinating: Apparently the 2009 Swine flu, and all other H1N1 strains are descended from the original 1918 Spanish influenza which was also an H1N1. Kind of astounding that it's still around and occasionally killing us.

Also, the reason it's the "Spanish flu" is that Spain was the only country in Europe which published reports of the outbreak, while every other country covered it up so as not to damage morale during WWI.

Just saw on Brett Baier's show that some Catholic Churches are doing a social distancing form of drive-thru confessions. Can you imagine having a parabolic mic, binoculars to get the license plate and listening to confessions??

Could be a lucrative side job for blackmail.

or a good way to get your ass kicked.

the open question is the number of infected in this younger cohort

you'd imagine it'd be typically larger because they generally feel more protected

where's the data on it hospitalizing 20% of infected 20-29 year olds?

Italy doesn't see to be showing that.

Posted on this thread earlier today

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

barnyard1996 said:

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or a good way to get your ass kicked.

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Hey, I'm Catholic. The protocol was always to stay far enough back from the confessional so as to not overhear what was said, even if it was not a door, just a drape for the booth.

But the picture they showed was a priest on a cell phone sitting in a chair outside and a car parked a few yards away for the drive-thru confession. Illegal as hell but not that hard to intercept cell phone calls with a dish bug. Take down the license plate and run the records on to whom the vehicle belongs.

I wasn't advocating anyone do that, just observing the possibility of someone doing that. Such as a PI investigating a marital infidelity case with a Catholic husband.

TCTTS said:

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I thought they'd start with more testing of efficacy on those who are already really sick, and maybe they are in another study, or maybe they're going to rely on the hundreds of real world results from docs trying it already.

But this test looks like they are testing the effect on infected people who are in the early stages, which is a possible endgame for getting this under control.

It's been a wild 60 days, I'll say that.

Hogties said:

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I sold all of my stock Jan 30 as a direct result of this thread and simple logic. Saved my ass.

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Bought travel insurance - upgraded to cancel for any reason - for our Italy trip scheduled for June around end of Jan because of this thread and later decided to cancel mid Feb. didn't make any Spring Break plans because of this thread. Have had plenty of toilet paper. .

Hogties said:

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I sold all of my stock Jan 30 as a direct result of this thread and simple logic. Saved my ass.

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I saw the incubation period of possibly being 21+ days on this thread. Knew at that point we would reach this stage eventually. (I study pandemics for fun) Stocked up at that point.

So I am thankful for that early info. Back in the days when this was a good thread...

Rapier108 said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Posted on this thread earlier today

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

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but that's across a larger cohort than 20-29 and only American cases where we pretty much haven't been testing

so wouldn't It stand to reason that yes younger people do get very ill but we don't know that infected number with which to calculate 20%. we may be seeing a younger cohort iceberg.

DTP02 said:

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TCTTS said:

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I thought they'd start with more testing of efficacy on those who are already really sick, and maybe they are in another study, or maybe they're going to rely on the hundreds of real world results from docs trying it already.

But this test looks like they are testing the effect on infected people who are in the early stages, which is a possible endgame for getting this under control.

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they want this as a prophylactic

cone said:

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DTP02 said:

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TCTTS said:

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I thought they'd start with more testing of efficacy on those who are already really sick, and maybe they are in another study, or maybe they're going to rely on the hundreds of real world results from docs trying it already.

But this test looks like they are testing the effect on infected people who are in the early stages, which is a possible endgame for getting this under control.

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they want this as a prophylactic

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We ALL want this as a prophylactic, or if not at least something to take to prevent things from getting to the hospitalization stage by taking fairly early after symptom onset. Let's hope it works.

To me a true prophylactic would prevent the infection from occurring at all, while the ideal scenario is probably a whole lot of mild or asymptomatic infections which are over within a week of treatment and which leave a robust herd immunity.