BoydCrowder13 said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

Mordred said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

The problem is that this virus has been hyped into a mega killer super virus deadlier than any virus we have seen in years. And there is no evidence of that as of yet in a developed country like the US.

---

So South Korea that did immeasurably better than the United States is not a developed country now?

Isn't their latest fatality rate close to 1% and rising?

Oh, and Italy is a 3rd world country. Got it.

---

Yes Italy is a third world country with an aging population with high risks with a mediocre heath care system. I can not remember the last medical break thru that was from Italy.

Korea I believe has had more deaths than the US, correct? What criteria are you basing your assumptions on?

---

Korea has had less than half the deaths as the US. They're at 91, and we're at 209, including 59 today. In 4-5 days, we will most likely have more daily deaths than Korea has had total from this thing.

---

Korea has 61 million and we have what 300 million. I will bet our percentage of deaths vs population will be almost identical or we will have a lower percentage.

---

Since Sat we have had 161 deaths. Including 68 today. In the same time span, SK has had 22. Even proportionate to the population, SK has 68% of the deaths we do this week. And their deaths have leveled off at 5-10 a day. Our last few days have been 11, 18, 23, 41 and 68 deaths. We are growing exponentially.

---

So now we are talking this week? Instead of total?

Best guess range.

Best case
86% asymptomatic spread uniformly by age
30% infected
80/15/5/0.5 ratio of mild/severe/icu/fatal of symptomatic
No surge caused deaths

67,000 in US dead.

Worst case.
Majority of asymptomatic are all young people. No benefit to reducing severity to older cohort.
16% general asymptomatic in general population
70% infected.
80/15/5/1 ratios.
No surge caused deaths.

1.88 million dead.

It's a huge huge swag.

SK and Singaporean cultures are much more compliant with civil authority than your average Americans will be.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Best guess range.

Best case
86% asymptomatic spread uniformly by age
30% infected
80/20/15/0.5 ratio of mild/severe/icu/fatal of symptomatic
No surge caused deaths

67,000 in US dead.

Worst case.
Majority of asymptomatic are all young people. No benefit to reducing severity to older cohort.
16% general asymptomatic in general population
70% infected.
80/20/15/5/1 ratios.
No surge caused deaths.

1.88 million dead.

It's a huge huge swag.

---

That severe/icu seems pretty narrow no?

I haven't seen any other numbers published.

Should be 80/20/15/5 mild hospital severe icu sorry.

Fixed it.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

SK and Singaporean cultures are much more compliant with civil authority than your average Americans will be.

---

Frisco is about ready to fire on Fort Sumter over not being able to eat inside Buffalo Wild Wings

120%?

dermdoc said:

---

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

Mordred said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

The problem is that this virus has been hyped into a mega killer super virus deadlier than any virus we have seen in years. And there is no evidence of that as of yet in a developed country like the US.

---

So South Korea that did immeasurably better than the United States is not a developed country now?

Isn't their latest fatality rate close to 1% and rising?

Oh, and Italy is a 3rd world country. Got it.

---

Yes Italy is a third world country with an aging population with high risks with a mediocre heath care system. I can not remember the last medical break thru that was from Italy.

Korea I believe has had more deaths than the US, correct? What criteria are you basing your assumptions on?

---

Korea has had less than half the deaths as the US. They're at 91, and we're at 209, including 59 today. In 4-5 days, we will most likely have more daily deaths than Korea has had total from this thing.

---

Korea has 61 million and we have what 300 million. I will bet our percentage of deaths vs population will be almost identical or we will have a lower percentage.

---

Since Sat we have had 161 deaths. Including 68 today. In the same time span, SK has had 22. Even proportionate to the population, SK has 68% of the deaths we do this week. And their deaths have leveled off at 5-10 a day. Our last few days have been 11, 18, 23, 41 and 68 deaths. We are growing exponentially.

---

So now we are talking this week? Instead of total?

---

Cases are just now spiking in the US. We had 1,500 cases in the US last week and 41 deaths. We are currently at 14,300 cases and 218 deaths. SK has had this for weeks longer than US. Their case count and death count plateaued on February 29th.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/austin-public-health-confirms-evidence-of-coronavirus-community-spread-in-travis-county/

Community spread Travis County.
Hays County was yesterday.

Which puts the death rate to confirmed cases at 1.5% right?

I think that's actually down from what I saw yesterday (believe yesterday I saw 1.6%).

We of course know this percentage is massively inflated since we don't have a good estimate of how many people will be infected....

I think yesterday was in the 2% range. Today, the rate has dropped 1%. Great news.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Best guess range.

Best case
86% asymptomatic spread uniformly by age
30% infected
80/15/5/0.5 ratio of mild/severe/icu/fatal of symptomatic
No surge caused deaths

67,000 in US dead.

Worst case.
Majority of asymptomatic are all young people. No benefit to reducing severity to older cohort.
16% general asymptomatic in general population
70% infected.
80/15/5/1 ratios.
No surge caused deaths.

1.88 million dead.

It's a huge huge swag.

---

Thanks. I know the board treats projections like piranha treats flesh, but I think you have done a good job trying to figure this out. Do you have a median case?

20 hospitalized includes 15 severe and 5 icu. It wasn't clear, my fault.

I don't, I'm sorry. If I had to guess I'd err on the high side of infections, but who knows the impact of our mitigation strategy...?

AgLiving06 said:

---

Which puts the death rate to confirmed cases at 1.5% right?

I think that's actually down from what I saw yesterday (believe yesterday I saw 1.6%).

We of course know this percentage is massively inflated since we don't have a good estimate of how many people will be infected....

---

The death rate will keep going down the more we tesr. Otherwise you only see the really sick ones

Have not read yet. Need to read.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7?mod=article_inline

California shut it down....that's a lot of people not working.

Anyone see this vid from Chicago with tons of humvees coming in via rail?

aggie2812-2 said:

---

California shut it down....that's a lot of people not working.

---

Makes sense for Commie-fornia

aggie2812-2 said:

---

California shut it down....that's a lot of people not working.

---

Until April 19th. I don't see how this is going to work.

goodAg80 said:

---

SK and Singapore set the bar for how to handle this. I wish we could duplicate.

---

The SK government uses peoples cell phone GPS coordinates and communication (texts phone calls etc) to round up people who might have come into contact with someone infected. They are spying on the religious organization where the outbreak first appeared. They fine people for not taking the test. Why would anyone think lurching into authoritarianism will solve this better than keeping the trust of the people? We are different. Freedom isn't free. I'll take freedom over tyranny.

Here is an interesting paper on asymptomatic carriers. Not coronavirus specific, but useful.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5830799/

Quote:

---

Mathematical modelling has helped to unravel some of the complexities of asymptomatic carriage and its implications for control. For example, modelling studies of influenza and community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) found that control strategies targeting symptomatically infected hosts but not asymptomatic carriers are actually incapable of achieving disease control, even when multiple control types are implemented

---

claym711 said:

---

Anyone see this vid from Chicago with tons of humvees coming in via rail?

---

One of the biggest Naval bases in the country iNorth Chicago.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Here is an interesting paper on asymptomatic carriers. Not coronavirus specific, but useful.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5830799/

Quote:

---

Mathematical modelling has helped to unravel some of the complexities of asymptomatic carriage and its implications for control. For example, modelling studies of influenza and community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) found that control strategies targeting symptomatically infected hosts but not asymptomatic carriers are actually incapable of achieving disease control, even when multiple control types are implemented

---

---

So we literally need to go full South Korea police state and test literally everyone

Or realize that it's basically impossible to contain it.

If it's not containable, it'll be over fast. 1918 flu came and went from cities in about a month and a half.

Exsurge Domine said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Here is an interesting paper on asymptomatic carriers. Not coronavirus specific, but useful.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5830799/

Quote:

---

Mathematical modelling has helped to unravel some of the complexities of asymptomatic carriage and its implications for control. For example, modelling studies of influenza and community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) found that control strategies targeting symptomatically infected hosts but not asymptomatic carriers are actually incapable of achieving disease control, even when multiple control types are implemented

---

---

So we literally need to go full South Korea police state and test literally everyone

---

No.

Need to test everyone, not just the critically ill and NBA players.

It's not hard to comprehend that finding all the positive infections will lead to a slower outbreak.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Or realize that it's basically impossible to contain it.

If it's not containable, it'll be over fast. 1918 flu came and went from cities in about a month and a half.

---

This is the only answer.

Get testing in place, have a good drug treatment and then let it run wild. It's the only real answer.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Or realize that it's basically impossible to contain it.

If it's not containable, it'll be over fast. 1918 flu came and went from cities in about a month and a half.

---

Not accurate

That's taking into account all of the city's...can you provide one for a certain city? Of course it would be drawn out as it makes its way across a country. But to really to say someone's wrong you'll need to produce one for a city itself.

IrishTxAggie said:

---

scottimus said:

---

It was 17 years old...but that Dog that got the corona died after coming home from quarantine. Owner would not allow an autopsy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075650/first-dog-found-coronavirus-has-died-after

---

Dogs getting Corona was discredited. The only common thing is that the dog and the people that are dying tend to be old

---

...sounds a little fishy


PLOT TWIST 2nd Dog in Hong Kong Found Infected with Coronavirus from owner...2 year old German Shepard

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075993/coronavirus-hong-kong-confirms-second-dog?utm_content=article&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2uc_pk-LecfOBd_npXnrzkrQGNv7QJ2MytWd_NEgKCwKl9qgdjwkXJtXQ#Echobox=1584623924

Quote:

---

Coronavirus: Hong Kong confirms a second dog is infected

• The German shepherd owned by a Covid-19 patient is in quarantine, along with another dog from the same home
• It is 'very likely' the two positive canine cases are examples of human-to-animal transmission, says virologist

A second dog with an infected owner has caught the coronavirus, Hong Kong's animal welfare authority confirmed on Thursday.

The two-year-old German shepherd lived with a person diagnosed with Covid-19 in Pok Fu Lam and was sent to quarantine on Wednesday, along with a four-year-old mixed-breed dog from the same home. The dogs were kept in separate kennels at the government facility.

Oral and nasal swabs taken on Wednesday and Thursday returned positive readings for the German shepherd, but were negative for the other dog.

Neither animal had shown any signs of the Covid-19 disease, according to an Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) spokesman, who added that it would "closely monitor both dogs and conduct repeated tests on the animals".

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

I don't, I'm sorry. If I had to guess I'd err on the high side of infections, but who knows the impact of our mitigation strategy...?

---

coastsrs said:

---

Update from San Diego...

The city has kept its sanity unlike Texas and it's counterpart California towns.

I'm still going to work at a downtown construction project. Traffic is still very light. People are supporting the breweries as much as they can. We do not have shelter in place orders. Many fast food places still have lobbies open. Idiotic gov newsom did order all bars that don't serve food close. Otherwise they would still be open.

Majority of people I talk to just want this to be over and think it's pretty dumb. Zero deaths.

Well, gonna go brave the apocalypse and walk over to the st archer beer room and pick up a sixer or two and then to the beach and watch a sunset.

Wish me luck

---

Say 'hi' to all the other superspreaders at the brewery!

Exsurge Domine said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

SK and Singaporean cultures are much more compliant with civil authority than your average Americans will be.

---

Frisco is about ready to fire on Fort Sumter over not being able to eat inside Buffalo Wild Wings

---

Wings is the last thing you want to eat inside right now. People licking sauce off their fingers, then touching their cups and salt and pepper shakers. Waitress comes to refill the filthy cup, and then moves to another table and touches their filthy cups, then carries out other folks food from the kitchen.