so trying to avoid wading in to the political side of this, i just made a quick plot of estimated civilian owned guns per capita and homicide rates for every country that i could quickly find data for
On this plot, i don't see a clear correlation, so then i broke it down by gdp per capita to see if that made things clearer. Here is the to 50% of countries in the world:
and the top 25%
and here is the 1 std deviation of gdp per capita with the U.S. at the center
from a pure data standpoint, my main takeaway is that the USA is an outlier in the data, so drawing statistical correlations using us is problematic. honestly if you look at the last to charts, if you take out the outlier, you could make a case that there is a downward trend (though incredibly loose) in homicides with increasing gun ownership. To me this says it is unlikely that high gun ownership has a strong causal relationship with homicide rates. out of curiosity i swapped out the x axis to look at GDP vs homicides and saw a much stronger trend
This to me seems to say that violence is primarily a money and/or culture issue. To that point, I don't have the source to site on this, but I seem to remember a Jordan Peterson lecture where he said something to the effect of he did (or reviewed) a country wide, county by county study in the US, and the number one best predictor in violent crime rates was economic disparity. basically, in counties that were either all rich or all poor, there was much lower crime rates, but when you had these big gaps in socioeconomic classes pressed up against one another is where the highest rates of violent crime came out. To me this speaks to a theory that violence proliferates when an us-vs-them mindset dominates a culture. so maybe we are an outlier on homicide rates among the European countries because we have much more diversity and therefor more tribal mindsets. if you look at a lot of the lesser developed world with huge murder rates, even there, murder seems to be driven by "tribal" warfare, whether those tribes are literal tribes, or gangs, or opposing guerilla factions.
anyway, these are just my afternoon musings, and probably worth what you paid for them