Get the Vax

71,912 Views | 709 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by The Hefty Lefty
Sapper Redux
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snowdog90 said:

Sapper Redux said:

VAERS is a self-reported system to allow researchers to identify and explore possible problems. It is not at all a peer-reviewed source. It is not a list of known vaccine-related problems. It is people (literally anyone) claiming a medical condition that they believe may be due to a vaccine. To use it uncritically as evidence of a problem with a vaccine is asinine.


This is just laughable. You will grasp at anything to defend your precious vaccine. VAERS is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. It's the only system used for vaccine adverse events. The covid vaccine caused more reports from 2021 than all other vaccines combined since VAERS was created.

It's THE system. Most doctors say the events are UNDER reported.

You act like this data is all of a sudden unreliable since covid came out, as if it's just a bunch of pranksters thinking it would be fun to hoax covid adverse events.

Covid vaccine adverse events are numerous and serious. Blood clots, strokes, heart issues, neurological issues, the list goes on and on. To act like this doesn't exist is naive or just a lie.


To assume a VAERS report must be an accurate representation of a true vaccine-related injury would be equivalent to using Wal-Mart t-shirt sales as the basis for declaring tu the superior university.
dermdoc
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AG
Zobel said:

it's not damning and the 2009 H1N1 flu shot is not a good analog. since the covid vaccines were not FDA approved, they had different reporting requirements for medical professionals (i.e., stricter). All things being equal, we would expect higher rates of VAERS reports. that's what we saw.

more heads i win tails you lose approach here, because it says we need "unbiased" research. translated: research that agrees with my preconceived notions.

the "amount of harm" you're presenting mostly exists in your imagination.
With all due respect, that is a huge jump in VAERs. Maybe my mind is simple, but common sense tells me that number is significant. And also the specific cardiac and thromboembolic events seems to be significant.

And I think pro vaxxers have preconceived notions also as they refuse to even consider any of the anti vax claims.

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AgLiving06
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Sapper Redux said:

VAERS is a self-reported system to allow researchers to identify and explore possible problems. It is not at all a peer-reviewed source. It is not a list of known vaccine-related problems. It is people (literally anyone) claiming a medical condition that they believe may be due to a vaccine. To use it uncritically as evidence of a problem with a vaccine is asinine.

Which, again, everybody everywhere concedes. It's also the tool the government created. And it's doing exactly what it was created to do.

Like I said, you show more faith than a lot of Christians.

I already agreed with you that VAERS is doing what it was designed to and has limitations (cynically built into it). But we either all acknowledge that it is working as intended, and highlight a significant increase is claimed adverse events that should cause everyone to pause and wonder what is going on, or we acknowledge that VAERS was never meant to do anything and close our eyes and ears.

Again, on a logical level, VAERS should be reporting higher than usual incidents from the COVID vaccines. We know the testing insufficient, we know the science is newer, and we know the claims of our medical establishment were outright lies.

So to get a result that would be completely expected, and then ignore/dismiss is truly asinine.
Zobel
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AG
it's a big jump, sure. but it doesn't mean anything in and of itself.

the vaccines were under EUA so providers had different reporting requirements than any vaccine in history. we can stop right there, because that by itself says prior reporting numbers aren't directly comparable.

the second is that VAERS basically came into the general public consciousness in a new way. that drives reports too.


Quote:

I already agreed with you that VAERS is doing what it was designed to and has limitations (cynically built into it). But we either all acknowledge that it is working as intended, and highlight a significant increase is claimed adverse events that should cause everyone to pause and wonder what is going on, or we acknowledge that VAERS was never meant to do anything and close our eyes and ears.
this is painful, fractally wrong. there's no cynical limitation. it is an open access passive surveillance tool. no one was sitting around saying - hey we could have a better way to do this, but let's build a crappy tool instead. it is working as intended, but the indicator for a problem is not volume of reports into VAERS.

that's what i don't get. hypothetically speaking if every person who get the vaccine heard about VAERS, and went and entered soreness or fatigue as an adverse event (which they are) there would be millions and millions of entries and no indicator of a problem.

it takes analysis of those reports to see if the report itself represents a potential problem, and second to see if there is potential causality. and... the people who do this for a living actively did this, and it actively worked, and that's why there's a myocarditis warning label.


Quote:

Again, on a logical level, VAERS should be reporting higher than usual incidents from the COVID vaccines. We know the testing insufficient, we know the science is newer, and we know the claims of our medical establishment were outright lies.

begging the question and failure of basic logic. we don't know testing was insufficient (in fact there was a much larger sample size in the trials than normal). "the science is newer" does not follow that VAERS reports go up or even that problems increase. and medical establishment can lie all they want, does not change the number of entries into VAERS.
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

it's a big jump, sure. but it doesn't mean anything in and of itself.

the vaccines were under EUA so providers had different reporting requirements than any vaccine in history. we can stop right there, because that by itself says prior reporting numbers aren't directly comparable.

the second is that VAERS basically came into the general public consciousness in a new way. that drives reports too.


Quote:

I already agreed with you that VAERS is doing what it was designed to and has limitations (cynically built into it). But we either all acknowledge that it is working as intended, and highlight a significant increase is claimed adverse events that should cause everyone to pause and wonder what is going on, or we acknowledge that VAERS was never meant to do anything and close our eyes and ears.
this is painful, fractally wrong. there's no cynical limitation. it is an open access passive surveillance tool. no one was sitting around saying - hey we could have a better way to do this, but let's build a crappy tool instead. it is working as intended, but the indicator for a problem is not volume of reports into VAERS.

that's what i don't get. hypothetically speaking if every person who get the vaccine heard about VAERS, and went and entered soreness or fatigue as an adverse event (which they are) there would be millions and millions of entries and no indicator of a problem.

it takes analysis of those reports to see if the report itself represents a potential problem, and second to see if there is potential causality. and... the people who do this for a living actively did this, and it actively worked, and that's why there's a myocarditis warning label.


Quote:

Again, on a logical level, VAERS should be reporting higher than usual incidents from the COVID vaccines. We know the testing insufficient, we know the science is newer, and we know the claims of our medical establishment were outright lies.

begging the question and failure of basic logic. we don't know testing was insufficient (in fact there was a much larger sample size in the trials than normal). "the science is newer" does not follow that VAERS reports go up or even that problems increase. and medical establishment can lie all they want, does not change the number of entries into VAERS.
Love you man but you are thinking like an engineer and not a doctor.

There is definitely something to increased side effects from the Covid vax. And the weird cardiac and thromboembolic cases are significant in my opinion.

And every doc I know who is involved in direct patient care agrees with me.
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Zobel
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AG
if thinking like an engineer means i want claims backed by evidence then yeah. In God we trust, all others must bring data.

One problem with "physicians intuition" in this case is we don't have a good reference for it. There's no event in your practice history to compare.

The biggest problem with "physicians intuition" though is that we know historically it sucks. Evidence based medicine only dates to 1981, and if we're going to pit individual physicians opinion against scientific methodology, randomized controlled trials, and statistical analysis I will take the latter every single time.

For clarity I don't think it's an either or situation, but for some reason you're making it out to be.

At any rate, if we're talking VAERS we need to address it in statistical terms. It's not part of physicians intuition. you can't use the evidence in your favor and dismiss the broader picture when it doesn't align. If you want to talk about people you've seen in your practice go for it. Can't have it both ways though.
Zobel
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one thing to add. my biggest problem with how the vaccine detractors present their case isnt that their position is impossible, its that they massively overestimate the evidence and the confidence in their position.

in the previous post there's a statement "we know the testing is insufficient". Who is we? How do we know that?

You say the number of vaers entries is significant. Significant to what? How do you know? "Common sense" can come to all kinds of different opinions about things. I gave you two common sense explanations and you didn't even address them.

You say specific cardiac events - yeah, there's a warning label. so specific to what? you think there's some additional hazard not being addressed? based on what?

You say that there's a preconceived notion that allegedly refuses to consider claims, but what i see is that claims were considered and investigated. just because people don't agree with your conclusions doesn't mean they're ignoring you. and this "pro vaccine" label crates a false dichotomy - you group vs theirs, pro vs anti, without recognition that there are people who have no vested interest and are open to what the best available evidence actually shows.

on the other hand, in this very thread, your response to a counter argument to your position is gatekeeping dismissal, upping the ante on your position (definitely) and a restatement of your previous argument with zero support (significant). Then an appeal to crowds fallacy, that "every doc you know" agrees with you. that's precisely the structure of argument you're saying "pro vaccine" people have.
dermdoc
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I thought I had made it clear it is not an either or deal.

Posters on here have though.

And I hear what you are saying but I have published more than a few published med articles and have run a monthly Journal club since the 80's.

You can make numbers say what you want them to. And there is a ton of bias usually towards whoever is paying for the study.

Fascinating how different real world studies on meds show totally different results than those paid for by drug companies. And I have done those too.
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Zobel
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Yeah - it can't be an either or, but anecdote is the weakest kind of evidence. when we're talking about incidence rates in the range of 1 per 100,000 dose personal observation is essentially useless.

bias exists, sure. that's why meta analysis and systemic reviews are at the top of the pyramid. based on that, we have to think that more and better evidence trumps less and weaker evidence, right?

these covid vaccines are more studied than any vaccine in history, not just by the drug companies but by government agencies and thousands of researchers and clinicians around the globe. there are meta analyses and systematic reviews published on it, both for safety and efficacy.

based on that, either we believe in the hierarchy of evidence and the basic premise of evidence based medicine or we don't. and if we do, then we have to say that the best available evidence and the overwhelming volume of evidence points to a safety and efficacy profile that is much better than other non-controversial vaccines (ie annual flu shot).
dermdoc
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AG
Do you think the Covid vaccines caused medical problems?

And do you believe present day Covid is deadly?

The bias is much worse than you think my friend. And truth is not always truth.

As I said I can publish a paper with stats and make it say whatever I want it to say.

And I do not trust anything the CDC or NIh says even after publishing a paper with Fauci during the HIV stuff.
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Zobel
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Yeah, they have side effects. All medicine has side effects.

Covid has some risk of death, but it's low. Thats not the right question to ask about a vaccine, though.

At some point the whole world can't be biased and compromised. You aren't presenting evidence at all here. Or even arguing against evidence.

It's not just the CDC and NIH or whoever else. Cochrane, many meta analyses, systematic reviews. When you are faced with a mountain of evidence, hand waving it away is irresponsible.

If the best available evidence says x, you need to present why that is not the right answer. Not just say everyone but me is biased. Everyone is biased. That's why we double blind studies and do meta analyses in the first place!
dermdoc
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AG
How many people do you know who have had problems or died from the flu vaccine? Do you know any docs? Ask them?
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dermdoc
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Zobel said:

Yeah, they have side effects. All medicine has side effects.

Covid has some risk of death, but it's low. Thats not the right question to ask about a vaccine, though.

At some point the whole world can't be biased and compromised. You aren't presenting evidence at all here. Or even arguing against evidence.

It's not just the CDC and NIH or whoever else. Cochrane, many meta analyses, systematic reviews. When you are faced with a mountain of evidence, hand waving it away is irresponsible.


Then call me irresponsible. And who is paying for all these studies?

Do you have doc friends you have talked to about this?
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Zobel
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I know one person who died from the flu. I know one person who died of Covid. I don't know anyone who has had a problem with the flu vaccine or Covid vaccine.

And all of that is worth precisely squat in this discussion!!

All you're doing is presenting a case against evidence based medicine and arguing for anecdotal judgment!
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

I know one person who died from the flu. I know one person who died of Covid. I don't know anyone who has had a problem with the flu vaccine or Covid vaccine.

And all of that is worth precisely squat in this discussion!!

All you're doing is presenting a case against evidence based medicine and arguing for anecdotal judgment!


Who pays for those studies? I have been in academic medicine since the 80's. I believe very little because I know who funds these studies.
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Zobel
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There is a reason appeal to crowds and appeal to authority are logical fallacies.
Zobel
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AG
Who paid for the studies you did?
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

Who paid for the studies you did?

Different drug companies. And one, Pfizer, produced one of the vaxxes.
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Zobel
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AG
Did you lie when reporting your research based on the funding you received?
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

Did you lie when reporting your research based on the funding you received?


No but I was biased. You always are to who is paying you

Huge difference between lying and bias. I am surprised you do not have more skepticism.
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Zobel
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It seems the majority of funding was public.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2795180

Question What were the major sources of funding for clinical trials focused on the development of therapeutics and vaccines against COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021?

Findings In this cross-sectional study of 1977 clinical trials, most were funded by public sources (57.9%), followed by industry (27.3%) and public-private partnerships (14.8%). Most of these clinical trials focused on COVID-19 therapeutics (85.0%) as opposed to vaccines (15.0%).

Meaning The findings of this study suggest that the public sector has likely been instrumental in the development of COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines; efforts to maintain their global access and affordability would be beneficial for public health.
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

It seems the majority of funding was public.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2795180

Question What were the major sources of funding for clinical trials focused on the development of therapeutics and vaccines against COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021?

Findings In this cross-sectional study of 1977 clinical trials, most were funded by public sources (57.9%), followed by industry (27.3%) and public-private partnerships (14.8%). Most of these clinical trials focused on COVID-19 therapeutics (85.0%) as opposed to vaccines (15.0%).

Meaning The findings of this study suggest that the public sector has likely been instrumental in the development of COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines; efforts to maintain their global access and affordability would be beneficial for public health.


That has nothing to do with discussion about side effects of the vax.
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Zobel
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dermdoc said:

Zobel said:

Did you lie when reporting your research based on the funding you received?


No but I was biased. You always are to who is paying you.


Ok? Everyone is always biased. The act of formulating a hypothesis creates a bias. Thats why we do all the things we do to try to sort signal from noise. Pre registration of outcomes, double blinding, effect size control, and above all replication and meta analysis. All you're arguing is that because bias exists nothing is knowable. In other words, arguing against evidence based medicine, which you also say you're not doing.
Zobel
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Bullcrap it doesn't. You said everything is invalid based on funding source because bias in favor of drug companies. This would imply it isn't.
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

Bullcrap it doesn't. You said everything is invalid based on funding source because bias in favor of drug companies. This would imply it isn't.


We are talking about 2 different things
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Zobel
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I have extreme skepticism. Including in my own observations. Thats why I look to the best available evidence.

So - what do you think is the best available evidence to this question? For the record I don't even know what the question is. "Covid vaccines bad" seems to be the category but it goes between "Covid isn't a bad disease" and "there's some unstated problem with the vaccine" I can't keep up.

So what's the question, and what's the best available evidence in your opinion?
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

I have extreme skepticism. Including in my own observations. Thats why I look to the best available evidence.

So - what do you think is the best available evidence to this question? For the record I don't even know what the question is. "Covid vaccines bad" seems to be the category but it goes between "Covid isn't a bad disease" and "there's some unstated problem with the vaccine" I can't keep up.

So what's the question, and what's the best available evidence in your opinion?


And that is the crux of the problem. I am not saying Covid vaccines are bad. I am saying Covid is not bad anymore and to not expose yourself to the spike protein.

This is not a good or bad thing. But right now I think the benefits of any Covid vax is nil.
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Zobel
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AG
Can you put that another way? That the number needed to treat for the vaccine is too high to justify it maybe?

What would be the best available evidence to answer this in your opinion?

And - doesn't getting infected with COVID actual expose you to the spike protein? And by almost certain logical necessity in greater volume???
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

Can you put that another way? That the number needed to treat for the vaccine is too high to justify it maybe?

What would be the best available evidence to answer this in your opinion?

And - doesn't getting infected with COVID actual expose you to the spike protein? And by almost certain logical necessity in greater volume???


I just do not think the risk/benefit ratio favors the vax over Covid presently.
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Zobel
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AG
I get it. Ok. In your opinion what is the best available evidence to turn to in order to evaluate that assertion?
dermdoc
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And with all due respect, it is my 69th bd and I am at Olsen.

So I am checking out my friend.
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Zobel
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AG
Happy birthday, and have a nice afternoon. But leaving the pivotal question unanswered here after arbitrarily disqualifying everyone else's evidence is pretty telling.
dermdoc
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Zobel said:

I get it. Ok. In your opinion what is the best available evidence to turn to in order to evaluate that assertion?


Do a bunch of real world studies not funded by drug companies. With docs who actually see patients.
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Zobel
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I said best available, not best imaginable.
dermdoc
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AG
They exist.
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