I would compare that paper to this one -
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v1.full.pdfQuote:
Private households are randomly selected on a continuous basis from address lists and previous surveys to provide a representative sample across the UK...Individuals were asked about demographics, behaviours, work, and vaccination uptake...At the first visit, participants were asked for (optional) consent for follow-up visits every week for the next month, then monthly for 12 months from enrolment. At each visit, enrolled household members provided a nose and throat self-swab following instructions from the study worker. From a random 10-20% of households, those 16 years or older were invited to provide blood monthly for antibody testing from enrolment. From April 2021, additional participants were invited to provide blood samples monthly to assess vaccine responses, based on a combination of random selection and prioritisation of those in the study for the longest period independent of test results). Throughout, participants with a positive swab test and their household members were also invited to provide blood monthly for follow-up visits after this.
It has, to me, a superior design vs looking at medical records due to potential bias from healthcare seeking behavior.
On the other hand, hospitalizations are probably rock solid, and the UK study doesn't measure that.
When you put them together, you get these statements
- once you're vaccinated, you have a slightly lower risk of becoming pcr positive at all
- however, if you are infected, you're more likely to belong to the lower Ct group if youre vaccinated vs previously infected
- both provide high protection against serious illness, but maybe previous infection is better
Not sure how confidence I feel about that. Also annoying that the Israeli paper table S1 and S2 are missing / error and no CI is given for the 1 vs 8 in the hospitalization groups.