A week from tonight I'll be dressed up as Kristoff to take my wife and kids to see Frozen 2 and I'm totally down for it. Original made $400 million back in 2013.

Less than a month later, it's Episode IX time. TFA made $936 million, TLJ made $620 million.

So tell me your predictions for each one's total domestic box office, and in 5 months I'll try to find this thread to announce a winner. Winner gets access to my 2003 Star Wars fan fic called "My Master's Blade" (it's not gay pron) which takes place simultaneously following Episode II and Episode IV.

For comparison's sake, here's the rest of Disney's 2019 blockbuster haul:

1. Endgame: $858 million
2. The Lion King: $543 million
3. Toy Story 4: $433 million
4. Captain Marvel: $426 million
5. Aladdin: $355 million

and to kick off my own thread:

Frozen 2: $610 million
Episode IX: $800 million

https://texags.com/forums/13/topics/3039313/1

Copying over my predictions from my earlier thread:

"Frozen 2 could possibly reach into the higher tier, but I think it will probably land in the 500-600 range."

I think F2 will land smack in the middle at around $550M domestic.

TROS - I'll go with $700M.

Incredibles 2 had $608M and I think Frozen 2 overtakes that with a similar combination of strong nostalgia and the holiday season. I am bullish on this movie with an estimate of $664M.



The Rise of Skywalker is a tough call. For a casual follower like me it will be highly dependent on initial viewer reviews as to whether or not I attend. I think we see a slow start to the movie beyond the first weekend which will hurt since that is their holiday window (slow in perspective to what it could do). $580M domestic is my guess with a slight uptick in ticket pricing from TLJ offset with 90% of comparable attendance.

Frozen 2: $700 million
TROS: $750 million

Frozen II - 615 mil

Skywalker - 747 mil

Sine poena nulla lex.

C@LAg said:

---

Frozen 2: $575
TROS: $600-650

---

wow those are some low estimates

Sine poena nulla lex.

You just have to look at the nostalgia reaction to Disney+ to guess Frozen isn't losing any fans. The little kids that loved the first one are definitely going to see #2

C@LAg said:

---

MuckRaker96 said:

---

C@LAg said:

---

Frozen 2: $575
TROS: $600-650

---

wow those are some low estimates

---

A lot of the little girls who loved Frozen have grown up a bit. And nothing in those trailers has looked like a "wow". It will really depend on the songs, and it will take a lot to beat "Let it Go".

And I think TROS will still suffer some level of backlash, even if it is the last Skywalker movie.

but to be honest I would bump up my TROS estimate to 650-675.

---

i was just making a joke because you left off the millions.

Sine poena nulla lex.

Hearing rumblings that the main song for F2 is going to rival Let it Go as an ear worm. I think Mandalorian and Disney+ in general are going to help TROS as well. Lots of positive Star Wars buzz, you got JJ, last chance to see Carrie Fisher, it will do better than TLJ

I am also going to copy over my previous reply from this thread
https://texags.com/forums/13/topics/3039313/1 :

Star Wars is a real question mark. I think it breaks $600 million, but whether it has the legs or opening weekend to get it over $700 or $800 is questionable.


Frozen 2 could break $400 million...maybe.


Also, I will pat myself on the back because I nailed the other predictions (Toy Story 4 being off a bit more and then Joker being the breakout in the 300 million range):

I just don't see any way Spider-man breaks $400 million. I think a lot of people will be stepping off the Marvel train after Endgame.


Toy Story 4 maybe breaks $400 million, but it wont be by much.

The Lion King will do about as good as Beauty and the Beast did, so probably $500 - $550 million

Other than that, I don't see anything getting out of the $300 million range, unless something is just SO good and has great word of mouth and a long run.... but that would be a surprise which does happen.


https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2019/?ref_=bo_yl_table_1

Quote:

---

Flops:

• Dark Phoenix
• MIB International
• Scary Stories
• Gemini Man

---

Pretty much 4/4 for me. Who would've thought Scary Stories would be the LEAST disastrous of those, though?

Quote:

---

Seeing as Venom was such a success ($213M), I think Joker should easily reach that and more. I think it could go up as high as $300M if it's critically acclaimed

---

I was being optimistic and still undershot it. Well past $315M and counting...

Not sure about Box Office projections but I predict Frozen 2 will disappoint. My daughter was a huge fan of the original but she is almost nine now and has no excitement about the sequel at all even after seeing the trailer in the theater. In the end it will be all about the hit song, if they don't have one then the film will flop and I am betting they don't.

I think your daughter is in the extreme minority. Its tracking for $100 million the weekend before Thanksgiving which is followed by a week where most kids have the whole week off and most parents have 2-3 days off. Might be at $300m by the end of the month

Saxsoon said:

---

Hearing rumblings that the main song for F2 is going to rival Let it Go as an ear worm. I think Mandalorian and Disney+ in general are going to help TROS as well. Lots of positive Star Wars buzz, you got JJ, last chance to see Carrie Fisher, it will do better than TLJ

---

Mandalorian is making me care less and less about TROS because it is scratching my Star Wars itch for me and letting me move on from the pile of garbage from TLJ. I think people underestimate just how bad TLJ was for a lot of viewers.

Sine poena nulla lex.

Meh....it's not bad. I think it's better than Let It Go.

Full disclosure...I HATED Let It Go the first time I heard it on the radio....thought the song, lyrics, vocals, all of it was terrible.

Once I saw it in context with the movie I appreciated it more, but still don't care for it.

C@LAg said:

---

Saxsoon said:

---

Hearing rumblings that the main song for F2 is going to rival Let it Go as an ear worm. I think Mandalorian and Disney+ in general are going to help TROS as well. Lots of positive Star Wars buzz, you got JJ, last chance to see Carrie Fisher, it will do better than TLJ

---

Listened to the soundtrack today.

This is the song you are likely referring to, and it is definitely no "Let it Go".

---

That is the one and is based on early twitter buzz. I also get a lot more chills watching let it go in context of the movie scene that just plain hearing it. I think the context will definitely impact how it stands for kids.

tv1113 said:

---

Saxsoon said:

---

Hearing rumblings that the main song for F2 is going to rival Let it Go as an ear worm. I think Mandalorian and Disney+ in general are going to help TROS as well. Lots of positive Star Wars buzz, you got JJ, last chance to see Carrie Fisher, it will do better than TLJ

---

Mandalorian is making me care less and less about TROS because it is scratching my Star Wars itch for me and letting me move on from the pile of garbage from TLJ. I think people underestimate just how bad TLJ was for a lot of viewers.

---

I think this forum SEVERELY overestimates how bad TLJ is for viewers. I do not see the vitriol for this film elsewhere in the internet, with family, or friend groups. This is not prequel trilogy bad in any case whatsoever. I honestly believe a combination of Star Wars fatigue and a very loud minority scared a lot of people away from TLJ. I don't think that will happen here. Way too many positives working in TROS' favor.

That song is not catchy at all.

It will be interesting to see what impact streaming and Disney + have on these movies.

Does it make people want to see them more because they can easily watch the earlier titles, or are people getting into more of a routine of just watch something at home, and wait for it to stream?


Saying that, I'm sure the family will go see Frozen 2 in the first couple weeks, but Star Wars has now been relegated to discounted movie night about 4 weeks after it opens.

Forgot to add:

Frozen 2: $630 million

Episode IX: $600 million

jokershady said:

---

Meh....it's not bad. I think it's better than Let It Go.

Full disclosure...I HATED Let It Go the first time I heard it on the radio....thought the song, lyrics, vocals, all of it was terrible.

Once I saw it in context with the movie I appreciated it more, but still don't care for it.

---

Going out on a limb that you aren't let it God's target audience

TCTTS said:

---

We are all God's target audience. Each and everyone of us.

---

Amen