Call me crazy, but I’ll be daydreaming of SEC football during Week 0. That’s not a slight to any of those Week 0 games, which have a greater than zero percent chance of giving us Bill Belichick in a kilt.
(Hey, the man hates long sleeves. Kilts are essentially just cutting off the pants sleeves … sort of.)
While the likes of Lincoln Riley and Mike Norvell will inevitably win by several touchdowns in lopsided matchups and not make their fanbases Google their respective buyouts, my mind will drift to the SEC this year. Specifically, it’ll drift to some numbers that have been hard for me to shake this offseason.
Week 1, AKA the real kickoff to the season, is so close that we can almost taste it. Enter the season with these numbers in your back pocket.
1. All of the top seven SEC leaders in receiving the last two years were former transfers
Welcome to the new age. Excuse the Imagine Dragons reference and instead, don’t excuse the likelihood that the top pass-catchers in the conference will be guys who started their careers elsewhere, like KC Concepcion, Chris Brazzell, Isaiah Sategna and plenty of others.
Of course, this year’s group of SEC pass-catchers includes plenty of homegrown guys who could end this trend. Ryan Coleman-Williams, Braylon Staley, Trey’Dez Green and the oft-overlooked Junior Sherrill are just a few guys who could all finish as top-seven receivers in the conference, and nobody would be surprised.
But what’s clear is that wide receiver is becoming more about veteran transfers with established roles who can provide an immediate impact.
2. The last time an SEC running back returned the following season after getting as many carries as Kewan Lacy was … Herschel Walker
OK, so there’s a key caveat here. I said “returned” because I’m eliminating guys like 2015 Derrick Henry who went to the NFL. I’m also eliminating Madre Hill, who had 307 carries in 1995 compared to Lacy’s 306, but he tore his ACL in the 1995 SEC Championship and missed the following two seasons before returning in 1998.
Ergo, you have to go all the way back to post-sophomore-season Walker to find an SEC running back who returned to college after getting more carries than Lacy. If you recall, Lacy suffered a hamstring injury in that Miami (FL) game, but said that he feels great heading into 2026. It’s worth noting that Ole Miss added former Michigan State running back Makhi Frazier and FCS All-American Joshua Dye, so there’s more depth in the backfield behind Lacy than last year. But take note of the impact that 2025 had on the Doak Walker Award finalist.
3. Kalen DeBoer is 7-1 vs. the likes of Kirby Smart, Dan Lanning and Steve Sarkisian
I realize that it’s not popular to discuss positive traits about DeBoer, and it’s more en vogue to debate his “hot-seat status” while conveniently ignoring that he just got an extension ahead of Year 3. But DeBoer’s lone blemish against that elite trio of coaches came in last year’s SEC Championship.
In each of his four Power Conference years as a head coach, he beat at least one of those three guys every year. It’s why in that four-year stretch he already has an 18-5 mark vs. the AP top 25 and is 8-3 vs. the top 10, both of which are the best winning percentages among active coaches.
Does Alabama need to improve in some obvious ways to become a championship contender? Absolutely. The Tide cannot run it back with the ground game that yielded the worst weekly average in program history. That, plus the lackluster showing in losing efforts, is why Alabama has its worst preseason ranking (No. 13) since 2008.
But the notion that DeBoer is completely in over his skis heading into Year 3 is premature.
4. Florida is No. 1 in the country in Bill Connelly’s percentage of returning defensive production metric
It’s important to note that this was a Florida defense that ranked No. 83 in yards per play allowed, and against SEC foes, it allowed 6.0 yards per play. We’re not talking about this group like it was Georgia or Oklahoma. But adding respected minds like Jon Sumrall and former Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White was an instant upgrade, regardless of the type of talent that the new staff both retained and acquired in the transfer portal.
What’s impressive is that a program that appeared to be in complete rebuild mode now has the personnel to be one of the better defenses in the conference. The front seven will be built on continuity with guys like Jayden Woods, Kamran James and Myles Graham. If you’re expecting Florida’s defense to be a doormat like it’s been throughout the majority of the 2020s, think again.
5. Ahmad Hardy led FBS with 1,181 yards after first contact in 2025
That context is worth remembering as Hardy continues to work his way back after he was shot at a concert this offseason. We know that Hardy is going to miss Week 1, and while Eli Drinkwitz announced that he was medically cleared in July, there’s clearly an attempt to ease him back into action with that upper leg injury.
I don’t know what expectations should be for Hardy, but I’ll say this. If he finishes with 1,181 rushing yards total — that’s the number he had after first contact last year — then that would be no small feat. The combination of power and speed that he generates with his lower half was what allowed him to go from an unheralded recruit to a Doak Walker Award finalist as a second-year player. Will that still be a strength once he returns? We don’t know.
Fingers crossed that arguably the top returning player in the conference has plenty of great moments ahead in 2026.
6. Faizon Brandon will be the first true freshman starting quarterback in the SEC in Week 1 since Ken Seals at Vanderbilt in 2020
It’s easy to assume that because we’ve seen plenty of true freshmen quarterbacks in the sport that it’s a relatively common occurrence to see them open as starters. It’s not. More times than not, it’s not the plan. The likes of DJ Lagway, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa all played as true freshmen, but they weren’t Week 1 starters.
Brandon was named Tennessee’s Week 1 starter, and it’s not a moment too soon for that fanbase. Was that Josh Heupel’s original plan? I’d argue it wasn’t after the likes of LSU-bound Sam Leavitt and NFL-bound Ty Simpson were reportedly two of their high-priced portal targets. But remember that even Nico Iamaleava took a redshirt season as a true freshman while backing up the inconsistent Joe Milton. Usually, it takes a year to master the tempo concepts of that offense.
Circle that Week 2 game at Georgia Tech. Tennessee fans will hope it follows a different script than when another decorated five-star true freshman starter from the jump, Bryce Underwood, traveled into a hostile atmosphere (Oklahoma) in Week 2 last year. Something tells me that Heupel will have a better plan than whatever Sherrone Moore did in Norman.
7. Lane Kiffin is 25-14 in his career when starting as a top-15 team
That’s an average of 4.7 losses in those three seasons as a preseason top-15 team. Kiffin’s Year 1 LSU squad, if you recall, is No. 11 entering the 2026 season. In his new Bayou digs, Kiffin is instantly tasked with getting to the College Football Playoff. That’s what a nine-figure contract and a $40 million (or more) roster yields.
Kiffin hasn’t always handled lofty expectations like one would hope, which we were reminded of when a loaded 2024 Ole Miss squad inexplicably lost to Kentucky at home in a game that ultimately cost it a shot at the Playoff. Can LSU be consistent and instantly look like a Playoff team? Or will this overhauled roster have a more volatile range of outcomes week to week?
With Clemson to open the season and that made-for-Hollywood return to Oxford in Week 3, we won’t have to wait very long to find out.
8. Five SEC QBs (Trinidad Chambliss, Gunner Stockton, Marcel Reed, Arch Manning and John Mateer) are back after leading double-digit win seasons
I realize that with the conference expanding to 16 teams and having a 12-team Playoff, there’s now a greater path to reaching 10 wins, but consider this: In the history of the SEC, 2019 (5) and 2013 (6) were the only other seasons in which you could say that the conference had that many quarterbacks returning from teams who won double-digit games.
In both instances, two of those returning quarterbacks finished in the top 10 in the Heisman voting, including when Joe Burrow became Joe Burrow in 2019. Of course, Johnny Manziel was one of those returning quarterbacks in 2013 after he won the Heisman in 2012.
What does that mean? A couple of top-10 Heisman finishers — and perhaps a winner — is a fair thing to project for that group. After all, Chambliss and Stockton already finished in the top 10 in the Heisman voting. Seeing Reed, Manning and/or Mateer join that group would all be in the range of outcomes for 2026.
Speaking of Manning …
9. Arch Manning was 15th out of 17 SEC QBs in adjusted completion percentage on short throws (0-9 yards), and he still had 3,566 scrimmage yards and 37 touchdowns
Why can’t I get that stat out of my mind? Because Manning struggled with the easy throws far too often as a first-year starter. It was the biggest weakness in his game, which was why it often felt like such an offensive grind for Texas, especially in the first part of the season. It also didn’t help matters that Texas couldn’t run the ball in extremely atypical Steve Sarkisian fashion.
But I bring that up because Manning actually excelled with the short-yardage throws as Quinn Ewers’ backup in 2024 — he had a 92 percent adjusted completion percentage in that area of the field as a part-time player that season — so it’s not as if this has always been an issue. It’s also why you could look at his production and see a tremendous ceiling, knowing that he stands to progress if he can simply improve on the easier, high-percentage throws.
It’s rare to see a player have his worst NFL quarterback rating in the short-middle and short-left side of the field. Whether that was injury-related or a mental issue remains to be seen. Whatever the case, Manning can make life a lot easier on himself — and live up to those lofty expectations — if he cleans up that part of his game.
10. The last three seasons, the SEC is 2-7 vs. other Power Conference teams in the Playoff
The two wins came via 2024 Texas, who beat a Clemson team that only made the field because it won the ACC with three losses and a two-loss Arizona State team that only made the field because it won the Big 12. Also, ASU was picked to finish last in the Big 12, yet it was a fourth-and-13 stop away from eliminating Texas in the quarterfinals, but I digress.
If you’re wondering why everyone is burying the SEC, point to that 2-7 mark. People care about championships and whether you succeed on that Playoff stage, which is what the SEC did with a 13-3 mark in those games from 2014-22. It’s not just that the SEC has failed to appear in three consecutive national championships. It’s that it had opportunities and squandered them.
We watched the likes of 2023 Michigan (1-0), 2024 Ohio State (2-0), 2024 Notre Dame (1-0), 2025 Miami (2-0) and 2025 Indiana (1-0) all take down SEC teams en route to playing for a national championship. All five of those squads were buzzsaws in their own right, but you know who won’t get grace? A conference that prides itself on how “It Just Means More.”
Now feels like as good a time as ever for the SEC to get back to its dominant ways on the Playoff stage.
