Series Preview: Stakes remain high as Texas A&M hosts No. 4 Florida

Also included above is a radio segment with Ryan Brauninger, Richard Zane and Scott Clendenin from Friday morning, previewing this weekend’s series between Texas A&M and No. 4 Florida. 

Who: University of Florida (36-10, 14-7 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Friday: 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 5:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Sunday: 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Friday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 1-3, 6.08) vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP, 6-2, 4.67)
Saturday: Troy Wansing (LHP, 2-2, 6.69) vs. Hurston Waldrep (RHP, 6-2, 4.74)
Sunday: TBA vs. Jac Caglianone (LHP, 4-2, 5.11)

Scouting Florida

For any Texas A&M fan hoping to win a critical weekend series against No. 4 Florida, I suggest you ignore the numbers on paper. The statistical team comparison doesn’t look pretty if you are in Maroon.

In fact, the only significant statistical category that favors the Aggies is a small .003 advantage in fielding percentage.

Seriously, Florida is arguably the most talented team in the SEC. Aside from a bad weekend at then-No. 6 South Carolina two weeks ago, Florida has consistently won SEC series. Going into this weekend against A&M, the Gators are 6-1 in winning SEC series.

The task of winning this series at home will still be a huge challenge.

At the plate, Florida has plenty of power bats and high averages, led by future first-round draft pick and two-way superstar Jac Caglianone and his 26 home runs and 67 RBI. His .364 batting average and .877 slugging percentage are elite. He has a capable supporting cast surrounding him in the batting order, with Wyatt Langford (.407, 11 HR), Josh Rivera (.377, 14 HR) and Cade Kurland (.304, 13 HR).

Michael Wade/SEC Photo

Last meeting in the 2022 SEC Tournament, A&M is 13-11 all-time against Florida, including 6-3 at Blue Bell Park.

Freshman Luke Heyman is the best freshman hitter in the SEC. After missing several weeks due to a hamstring injury, he has returned to action with a vengeance, hitting .375 and nine homers in just 96 at-bats. Overall, Florida’s offense has generated 88 more runs than the A&M’s offense this season, with a slugging percentage 126 points higher. The Aggies’ struggling pitching staff isn’t a good match for these explosive Gator bats.

On the pitching side, it’s a little more complicated to digest.

Florida has two potential first-round draft picks starting games one and two. When the Gators are on point, the starters can be dominant. Friday night starter Brandon Sproat has filthy stuff, and he had a dominant two-hit performance last weekend against Missouri, giving up just one run in seven complete innings in securing his sixth win of the season. On the flip side, Hurston Waldrep struggled with his control against the Tigers, walking four and surrendering six hits in four innings.

I provide those contrasts because of the filthy pitches these two potential high-round MLB draft picks have in their arsenal. However, they actually boast pretty average ERAs (4.67 and 4.74, respectively) over the course of the season. If Florida pitching is “on” this weekend, that’s a really bad sign for the Aggies.

However, there is a chance the starting rotation can be just average and walk some batters. The good news here is A&M loves to remain patient and coax walks, and the Gator bullpen is nothing special. The Aggies have walked a whopping 291 times compared to just 213 for the Gators. This team needs free passes to score runs, especially against these talented arms.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The Aggies are in survival mode after the Arkansas sweep that left A&M sitting at 26-19 and 9-12 in the SEC. A&M is no longer talking about turning this season around and hoping to improve seeding for the NCAA Tournament. The mindset is to scrap and claw in any way possible to reach the 14-16 SEC mark that many college baseball analysts say is the magic mark for most teams in the conference.

Nathan Dettmer is cleared to start on Friday, and Troy Wansing will be given the starting nod on Saturday. That’s good news, but anyway you spin it, A&M’s first two weekend starters still have bloated ERAs of 6.08 and 6.69, respectively. Ouch. As I said, A&M is in survival mode and will empty the bullpen this weekend, looking for a couple of hot hands that can slow down this potent Florida lineup.

Who will be these hypothetical hands? I certainly don’t know, and neither does Jim Schlossnagle at this point. It sounds like he’ll throw everybody out there and see who floats to the top. Evan Aschenbeck is the only consistent pitcher on this staff, and the coaches must be smart and efficient with his innings. Rolling Aschenbeck out there in the middle innings down four to five runs of game one may not be the best use of his resources.

However, if the Aggies are fortunate enough to grab an early lead and Dettmer stumbles into a hint of trouble, get Aschenbeck into the game ASAP and try to steal a game.

Cade Ingersoll, TexAgs

Earning his first career save on Tuesday vs. Tarleton, Evan Aschenbeck boasts a 6-1-1 record with a 3.77 ERA.

At the plate, what was some positive momentum trending for the Maroon & White in recent weeks has turned into several significant questions that start with the injury status of cleanup hitter Brett Minnich. The team’s most productive run producer since his return from an early season injury, Minnich suffered an apparent injury on Tuesday night after an awkward slide at home plate.

Schlossnagle said his status for this weekend is still unknown, but it’s not just Minnich that should have A&M fans concerned. Hunter Haas has been A&M’s top hitter most of the season, but he’s dipped down to a season-low .337 after spending much of March and early April in the high .300s.

Still, the biggest anchor to the Aggie offense in 2023 has been the protracted season-long slumps of veteran sluggers Austin Bost, Ryan Targac and Trevor Werner. All three are hitting just .226 combined. Targac and Werner alone have struck out 102 times this season. It’s hard to string together some offensive rallies when the middle of the order isn’t producing or putting the ball in play.

On a positive note, freshman Jace LaViolette has quietly become the team’s most productive run producer after starting 2023 colder than any hitter on the team. He has raised his season batting average to a respectable .287, but more impressive are his team-leading 11 home runs and 43 RBI.

LaViolette can’t do it alone. Somebody other than Jack Moss must step forward and do much more at the plate if this team hopes to not only survive this weekend with a win or two but also play in the NCAA postseason in June.

What’s at stake this weekend

My last words in last week’s preview were “avoid the sweep.”

Well, the Aggies had a very poor weekend in Arkansas and left Fayetteville empty-handed and three games under .500 in the SEC. That sweep now puts a lot of pressure on the Aggies to win this home series against the No. 4 Florida Gators to keep its realistic hopes of making the NCAA postseason alive.

Let’s start doing some math: If 14 SEC wins is the minimum goal to squeeze into the NCAA Regionals, then the magic number is five with nine to play. Get swept by Florida, and that means A&M must finish 5-1 against Alabama and Mississippi State. Now, given the news that Alabama just fired its head coach due to gambling allegations along with the complete mess that is the Mississippi State pitching staff, that’s not out of the question, but still a difficult task.

If A&M can win at least one game against No. 4 Florida at Blue Bell Park, that lowers A&M’s minimum goal to 4-2 against the struggling Tide and Bulldogs, which is realistic. Win this series against the Gators, and A&M is back in pretty good shape to sneak into the big dance.

As I said, that’s about all we can expect in 2023. Ole Miss proved last year anything can happen in the postseason… including a national championship.