Also included above is a radio segment with Ryan Brauninger, Richard Zane and Scott Clendenin from Friday morning, previewing this weekend’s series between Texas A&M and No. 13 Kentucky.
Who: No. 13 Kentucky (29-7, 10-5 Southeastern Conference)
Where: Kentucky Proud Park – Lexington, Kentucky
When:
Friday: 3:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Pitching matchups
Friday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 1-3, 6.09) vs. Logan Martin (RHP, 1-1, 4.43)
Saturday: TBA vs. Tyler Bosma (LHP, 4-2, 4.19)
Sunday: TBA vs. Zack Lee (RHP, 3-2, 3.99)
When you think of the No. 1 RPI team in the nation, who comes to mind in the SEC? LSU, Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt or South Carolina? You know, all of those are top-10 programs in the rankings, but nope, that would be the 29-7 Kentucky Wildcats. When the 13th-ranked ‘Cats get rolling, they steamroll. They opened the conference season with a sweep of Mississippi State, which turned some heads in March. It wasn’t just a sweep. It was a beatdown as they outscored the Bulldogs 35-11 in the three-game set. A couple of weeks ago, Kentucky faced then-ranked Missouri and whipped the Tigers by a combined 25-3 margin in another three-game SEC sweep. Both of those whitewashings came at Kentucky Proud Park in Lexington. In fact, the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 at home in league play, and if my math is correct, they did it by a combined 60-14. Ouch. Now, part of that is the competition. Mississippi State has been a huge disappointment, and Missouri is struggling to make the postseason. Then again, Kentucky’s offense will be going against a struggling Texas A&M pitching staff.
Offensively, Hunter Gilliam is the best bat and biggest run producer in the Wildcat lineup, hitting .374 with eight home runs and a whopping 51 RBI which leads the team by 13. He’s the one big power bat in the lineup. The rest of the hitters are contact guys with speed that get on base and make things happen on the basepaths. Kentucky has four players with double-digit steals, and the lineup is not afraid to lay down a bunt and force the opposing defense to make plays. Emilien Pitre leads the Wildcats with a .377 batting average and an even more impressive team-high .519 on-base percentage. The lineup may not have a large power dynamic, but it’s a deep, capable lineup with eight of the nine starters hitting above .280. The key for Aggie pitching is to limit the free passes and keep the lead-off hitter in each inning off the basepaths.
Kentucky clearly has a statistical advantage on the mound with a team ERA (3.74) that’s almost 1.7 runs per game less than A&M’s bloated 5.42 ERA. On paper, Kentucky doesn’t have that dominant headlining starter, but they have quality pitching in the rotation and in the bullpen. However, all three announced weekend starters were hit hard last week against LSU. Friday starter Logan Martin gave up three runs in just 1.1 innings. Game two starter Tyler Bosma lasted only 3.1 innings and gave up two runs against the Tigers. Zack Lee also struggled in just 1.1 innings of work, allowing three runs. Overall, Kentucky uncharacteristically surrendered 33 runs to LSU in their three-game series. Despite last weekend’s struggles, the Kentucky pitching staff has been solid, especially at home. There is a question of which pitching staff shows up against the Aggies, and can the surging A&M power bats keep the Wildcat pitchers on their heels after a tough time in Baton Rouge?
| Hitting | Avg. | Runs | Slugging % | On-Base % | Strikeouts |
| Texas A&M | .280 | 287 | .463 | .403 | 291 |
| Kentucky | .302 | 293 | .446 | .432 | 316 |
| Pitching | ERA | WHIP | Walks | Opp. Avg. | Strikeouts | Fielding % |
| Texas A&M | 5.42 | 1.57 | 180 | .261 | 388 | .982 |
| Kentucky | 3.74 | 1.25 | 145 | .215 | 307 | .980 |
We’ve been talking about the need for a Nathan Dettmer resurgence for weeks, and we’re running out of season. It’s been a disappointing 2023 season for the veteran who was supposed to be the Friday night anchor of this pitching staff. Two months into the 2023 campaign, Dettmer has a grand total of one win and an ERA of 6.09. Those are typically numbers from a young arm buried in the bullpen, not the Friday night starter. There are a bunch of reasons why this A&M pitching staff has struggled, but when the expected trusted veteran is sitting above the team ERA, that’s where you have to focus on if a turn-around on the mound is possible.
This team simply can’t survive Kentucky, Arkansas and Florida with the way this pitching staff has performed this season. It’s a mess. For the second week in a row, Jim Schlossnagle has scheduled the double TBA for the final two games. If you don’t know who you can trust to be inserted into the starting rotation by mid-April, how can you expect to win a road series against No. 13 UK and No. 5 Arkansas next week? There have been flashes of success on the mound, but the consistency hasn’t been there. Will the light bulb turn on this weekend for Dettmer or maybe Troy Wansing and Justin Lamkin? For this team to make noise in the postseason, it has to start with an effective Dettmer. If he can’t get back on track quickly (as in this nine-game SEC stretch), it won’t matter what the other arms do. Will it happen? We can only hope and watch. The 2022 team, with many of these same players, came together for a productive stretch run last year.
I don’t know who will step up this weekend. Evan Aschenbeck has been the most consistent hurler for A&M this season. Josh Stewart has produced several quality outings over the past two weeks, and he should get an opportunity in Lexington. Jim Schlossnagle mentioned that Wansing had a very impressive simulated game this week in practice. Who knows? Schlossnagle will keep running arms out there, hoping a couple of pitchers catch fire, throw strikes and take control of a game or two. What else can you do at this point? Again, we can only hope.
The bats have actually come around in recent weeks. The team batting average has risen to a robust .280, and the power surge from guys like Brett Minnich, Jace LaViolette and Trevor Werner has made an impact in run production. That power will come in handy this weekend at Kentucky Proud Park and its short 320-foot porch in right field, which plays into A&M’s strength with left-handed power bats like Minnich, LaViolette and Ryan Targac. Even Jack Moss has started to hit some long balls in recent games. Given the Aggies’ struggles on the mound, run production from these power lefties could be crucial this weekend. I don’t see many low-scoring 3-2, 4-3 nailbiters this weekend.
Let’s discuss the good news first. The Aggies have won three straight SEC series to get back in the middle of the conference standings at 7-8. On the flip side, A&M let a series home sweep against unranked Missouri get away from them last Sunday that would have vaulted the team above .500 in SEC play. A sweep would have provided some momentum and some margin for error heading into a brutal three-week stretch against No. 13 Kentucky and No. 5 Arkansas on the road and then coming home to battle No. 3 Florida. As strange as it sounds, this week’s road assignment against the nationally-ranked Wildcats could be the easiest of the next three. That should give you an indication of how tough this road will be over the next three weekends because playing the Wildcats in Lexington will be no picnic.
I know it sounds like a broken record every week, but the Aggies can either solidify their position as a projected No. 2 seed in NCAA Regional bracket predictions (D1 Baseball) by winning this series, or they can significantly damage their NCAA Regional chances if they get swept. At a minimum, the Aggies need to win one game to stay alive for an NCAA at-large berth. Winning a pair in Lexington would be a huge boost.
Bottom line, the team must exit these next nine games at 3-6 to keep its postseason hopes alive. If they can go 4-5 over the next three weekends, the team is in solid shape ending the season against two of the weaker teams in the SEC — Alabama and Mississippi State. Anything better than 4-5 means the team has found some pitching and has turned the corner heading down the home stretch. However, it all starts in Lexington this weekend. Win the series, and Aggie fans should feel good about this team sitting at 9-9. Go 1-2, and the team is still alive and kicking. As usual, at a bare minimum the Aggies must avoid the sweep. That would be a big blow.
