Series Preview: Texas A&M vs. Kentucky

Who: Kentucky Wildcats (18-11, 3-6 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Thursday: 8:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Friday: 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 3 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 2-2, 4.46) vs. TBA
Friday: Ryan Prager (LHP, 0-0, 4.99) vs. TBA
Saturday: Micah Dallas (RHP, 3-1, 4.01) vs. Tyler Bosma (LHP, 3-2, 3.29)

Scouting Kentucky

The scouting of Kentucky begins and ends with the pitching staff. The numbers tell the story. The Wildcats own a bloated team ERA of 5.12 with an eye-popping 1.53 WHIP. In addition, the Wildcats lost their Friday night starter, Cole Stupp, to a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Of course, it says something when the No. 1 starter ended his season with a 6.31 ERA. Still, the recent injury forced head coach Nick Mingione to not only shuffle his pitching rotation but employ a true “pitcher-by-committee” approach against the nationally-ranked Ole Miss Rebels last weekend. It appeared to pay off as Kentucky held the Rebels to just four runs in the first two games of the series. However, new starter Darren Williams suffered a cut on his finger last weekend and is questionable against the Aggies.

That’s a big reason why Kentucky has not announced starters for Thursday or Friday. It’s also why the Texas A&M offense needs to take advantage of the Wildcats’ uncertainty and struggles on the bump.

On the other hand, Kentucky is dangerous at the plate with a .298 team batting average. Five full-time starters hit .284 or higher, led by Chase Estep, who is hitting .384 with a team-high nine home runs and an impressive .732 slugging percentage. He’s also a threat on the basepaths with ten stolen bases. Jacob Plastiak is another big power bat in the middle of the batting order with eight round-trippers and a team-leading 31 RBIs. Finally, Hunter Jump rounds out the group of hitters to watch with a .333 batting average.

While the Aggies hold a decided advantage on the hill, Kentucky’s offensive numbers are higher across the board than Texas A&M’s.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The middle of the Aggie batting order has heated up in recent weeks and has become a formidable challenge for opposing pitchers. Batters 2-6 are all hitting above .300, with the red-hot Jack Moss leading the way at .389. Dylan Rock has seen his offensive numbers skyrocket in recent weeks with a .343 average and a team-high seven homers. Brett Minnich leads the squad in RBIs (24) and has seen his batting average rise to .324. This trio has combined for 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. These three — along with Troy Claunch and Austin Bost — in the middle of the order drive the Texas A&M offense. This group needs to feast on this depleted and struggling Wildcat pitching staff.

Brooke Homfeld, TexAgs

Jack Moss was 3-for-5 on Tuesday night vs. Texas State and finished a triple shy of the cycle.

The Aggies have their issues on the bump due to injury and inconsistency. If A&M hopes to win or sweep this series, the starting pitching has to go deeper than four or five innings.

Nathan Dettmer pitched well against Alabama and stretched his outing into the seventh inning. The Maroon & White would like more of that times three. Realistically, the starting staff needs to give Jim Schlossnagle 18 quality innings of work to lessen the burden on its bullpen.

Jacob Palisch had his best outing of the season on Tuesday, striking out four of the six batters he faced. More of that, please. Brad Rudis is slowly emerging as a potential closer, and Chris Cortez has shown signs of getting better. If those three relievers can hold the rope this weekend to go along with 18 innings from the starters, the Aggies have a decent shot at sweeping this series.

What’s at stake this weekend

The Aggies need a few wins this weekend. After the Wildcats, the SEC schedule gets appreciably more difficult with three consecutive nationally ranked conference foes on tap against Georgia (14), Arkansas (2) and Vanderbilt (16).

A&M must grab momentum and, at the very least, win a home series against a struggling 3-6 Kentucky club with many issues on the mound.

It’s asking a lot, but a sweep would be a game-changer. The magic number of SEC regular-season wins to secure an NCAA berth sits around 14, so a three-game sweep puts A&M halfway home at 7-5 with 18 more conference games to play.

Lose the series to Kentucky, and that would be the third straight second-tier SEC program to beat the Aggies. The path to the NCAA Tournament would become very foggy.

This is a critical pivot point in the SEC campaign. Win the series, and A&M is still grinding for a postseason spot. Drop the weekend series at home, and it’s a steep uphill climb.