Series Preview: Texas A&M vs. Auburn

Also included above is Diamond Talk with David Nuño, Ryan Brauninger, Richard Zane and Scott Clendenin from Friday’s edition of TexAgs Radio.

Who: Auburn Tigers (15-6, 1-2 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Friday: 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 12 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Friday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 1-2, 5.09) vs. Hayden Mullins (LHP, 2-1, 3.65)
Saturday: Micah Dallas (RHP, 3-0, 3.00) vs. Trace Bright (RHP, 2-1, 1.98)
Sunday: Ryan Prager (LHP, 0-0, 2.59) vs. TBA

Scouting Auburn

Auburn is a difficult team to predict. Looking at the 2022 results to date, the Tigers opened the season by losing a 3-0 shutout to Oklahoma, but the next day Auburn defeated nationally-ranked Texas Tech 2-1 followed by a 12-1 rout of Kansas State. In early March, the Tigers whitewashed Rhode island in a four-game series by a combined score of 49-3. The following weekend, they inexplicably dropped a series at home to Middle Tennessee State, losing the rubber match, 4-3.

Auburn opened SEC play at home with No. 1 Ole Miss. After losing the opener 13-6, the Tigers blasted the Rebels 19-5 before dropping the finale 15-2.

You never know what Auburn team will show up on any given day.

If you compare the numbers, Auburn’s offensive production is significantly higher than Texas A&M’s. The pitching numbers are much closer, and both teams field at a pretty dependable rate.

Offensively, Auburn’s team average (.316) ranks third in the SEC and 17th nationally. The top of their lineup is scary and as formidable as any A&M will face this season. Blake Rambusch leads off for the Tigers and is hitting .412 with an on-base percentage of .480. He’s currently carrying an 11-game hitting streak. Kason Howell is swinging at a .342 clip with 20 RBIs and a slugging percentage of .532.

If that wasn’t tough enough, Aggie pitchers will then have to face one of the best hitters in college baseball in the three-hole. Sonny DiChiara is blistering the ball with a .471 batting average, seven home runs, a slugging percentage of 1.039 and an on-base rate of .618. Yeah, he’s that good. All of those stats place him in the top five in every category. He’s no fluke either. DiChiara is tied for third on the career home runs list for active players with 48.

The back-end of the batting order drops off significantly, so that’s where A&M pitchers can get their outs. The Aggies simply can’t give up free passes at the bottom of the order and allow the big three at the top to come to the plate with runners on base.

On the mound, the Tigers have suffered a couple of injuries that has head coach Butch Thompson scrambling his rotation. Lefty Hayden Mullins will take the hill on Friday despite starting only two games all season. RHP Trace Bright has been good this season as a fixture in the weekend rotation with a record of 2-1 and a 1.98 ERA. He’ll start the Saturday game. Game three is a TBA at this point. Auburn’s pitching is solid but undermanned this weekend.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Despite the big series win over LSU on the road, A&M’s starting pitching took its lumps and forced the bullpen to have a significant role. It worked out for the most part last weekend, but it’s not ideal for Aggie starters to leave the game in the fifth or sixth inning.

Nathan Dettmer had his moments early in game one, but his statistics are still going south. A 1-2 record and a 5.09 ERA simply won’t cut it for a Friday night starter in the SEC. On the flip side, Micah Dallas has been very solid with a perfect 3-0 record and a 3.00 ERA. Ryan Prager has been wonderful in the Sunday role as a true freshman, but it’s time for him to stretch out his starts and get through the fifth inning. Despite a sparkling 2.59 ERA, Prager has failed to register his first collegiate win.

Brooke Homfeld, TexAgs

The Aggies hope Friday-night starter Nathan Dettmer can return to form after a trio of lackluster starts.

The starting rotation ideally needs to give the team 17-18 innings, which will give the bullpen a better chance to digest the remaining nine to ten innings of work. This group isn’t deep enough to go 12-13 innings.

At the plate, it was a huge surprise to see the collective two-strike approach at the plate last weekend in Baton Rouge. The ability to extend at-bats by fouling off two-strike pitches not only adds to the opposing hurler’s pitch count but it allows the hitters to wait for a pitch to drive. It certainly worked for this A&M offense. The numbers back it up. In the past two weeks, the team batting average has improved from .251 to .280. The team’s overall slugging percentage has jumped from .371 to .425. That’s a significant jump in performance at the plate. You can see it in the individual numbers. Two weeks ago, Dylan Rock was treading water in the low .200s. Today, his batting average has skyrocketed to .323, with a team-leading slugging percentage of .538. Ryan Targac has raised his average from near the dreaded Mendoza Line (.200) to .255 with a slugging rate over .500. Brett Minnich and Kole Kaler have also seen their hitting number rise over the past two weeks. Yes, the offense is definitely headed in the right direction.

What’s at stake this weekend

Last weekend in Baton Rouge was a huge surprise. A road series win in the SEC is big news, especially when the opponent is LSU. It’s something that can serve as a turning point in the season and a momentum-builder going forward, but that narrative is washed away if the Aggies don’t come out with the same plate approach this weekend against Auburn.

Play well and win this series, and this team could be ready to take off, especially with the potential return of third baseman Trevor Werner next weekend. Lose the series and observers will be wondering if the weekend in Baton Rouge was just a fluke.

Auburn is a dangerous SEC team, but the Tigers are exposed on the mound and have been somewhat inconsistent most of the season. Texas A&M must keep the pedal down and take care of business at home.