Series Preview: Texas A&M at the Frisco College Baseball Classic

Also included above is Diamond Talk with Gabe Bock, Ryan Brauninger and Scott Clendenin from Friday’s edition of TexAgs Radio.

Who: Illinois (3-3, 0-0 B-10), No. 10 UCLA (8-0, 0-0 P-12), Oklahoma St. (7-2, 0-0 B-12)

Where: Dr Pepper Ball Park — Frisco, TX

When:
Friday 7:00 p.m. CT (PPV streaming - https://www.flobaseball.tv/signup)
Saturday 6:00 p.m. CT (PPV streaming - https://www.flobaseball.tv/signup)
Sunday 3:00 p.m. CT (PPV streaming - https://www.flobaseball.tv/signup)

Pitching matchups
Friday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 2-0, 1.64) vs. Ty Weber (RHP, 2-0, 0.82)
Saturday: Christian Roa (RHP, 2-0, 2.45) vs. Nick Nastrini (RHP, 1-0, 2.08)
Sunday: Chandler Jozwiak (LHP, 1-0, 4.82) vs. Justin Campbell (RHP, 0-1, 9.00)

Scouting - Frisco Classic

Friday 7:00 - Illinois

The casual college baseball fan doesn’t associate Illinois with baseball excellence, but the Illini have been a quality NCAA team - reaching the NCAA Regionals four times - in the past decade. The Big Ten representative advanced to the Oxford Regional and finished with a 36-21 record in 2019. Most prognosticators have pegged Illinois to finish anywhere between 3rd and 5th place in the 2020 Big Ten race.

Bradley Countie, TexAgs

Asa Lacy takes the ball for A&M tonight in a matchup with Illinous ace, Ty Weber.

Illinois leans heavily on its pitching staff. Through six games (3-3), the arms at the top of the rotation have been dominant, and the Aggies will face their ace tonight in Ty Weber. After a very solid 2019 campaign with a 4-3 record and 3.28 ERA, Weber has come out of the 2020 gates white-hot, allowing just one earned run in two starts. Opposing teams are hitting near the Mendoza line (.205) against Weber, and his ERA is a minuscule 0.82. Even more impressive is his 9-1 K/BB ratio. He doesn’t give up many free passes and forces the opponent to earn everything, which so far isn’t much. And if the plan is to extend at-bats and run-up Weber’s pitch count, Illinois has arguably the best closer in the game ready to nail down a late lead. Garrett Action collected a whopping 19 saves in 2019, and batters hit just .127 against him. Illinois baseball won the proverbial lottery when the junior turned down several MLB draft day offers to return to Champaign for his senior season. 

On the other hand, Illinois struggles to generate runs. The team’s batting average is a puny .200 with an anemic slugging percentage of .292. The Illini have scored just 17 runs in six games in 2020. So expect a low scoring, quickly-played game tonight. The Aggies will need to play clean defense, and Asa Lacy needs to stay under control and avoid giving up any free baserunners. On offense, the team may need to manufacture runs and utilize this year’s team speed aggressively on the base paths. A&M can’t afford to fall behind early and allow Ty Weber and closer Garrett Action to pitch with a nice lead. As long as the Aggies play clean and don’t give up a big inning, they should be in good shape here.

Saturday 6:00 - No. 10 UCLA

The Aggies will face their first nationally-ranked opponent of the 2020 campaign when they face off against pitching-heavy UCLA Bruins. UCLA will be another tough test for the Texas A&M bats. In fact, from top-to-bottom, UCLA may have the most talented pitching staff in college baseball, and the numbers reflect that. Through the first eight games, the Bruins’ team ERA is a rarified 0.75. The staff has not allowed more than two runs in any game this season. The Aggies will get sophomore right-hander Nick Nastrini (1-0, 2.08 ERA), who happens to have the highest ERA of any UCLA weekend starter. 

But UCLA compliments that stellar pitching rotation with a solid offensive lineup led by a couple of big-time bats in JT Schwartz (.424) and Matt McLain (.387, 10 RBI). It should be noted that the injury bug has hit the Bruin infield. One of their best gloves in the infield, Kevin Kendall, hurt his wrist earlier and will miss the remainder of the season. Also, second baseman Michael Curialle is nursing a hip injury and will miss this weekend’s tournament. That could impact infield play, so putting the ball in play and forcing a couple of back-ups to make those plays will be a key. Again, this contest should be relatively low scoring, and one mistake or one big hit could be the difference in this important showdown between two nationally ranked programs. 

Sunday 3:00 - Oklahoma State

A preseason fringe Top 25 squad, Oklahoma State stumbled in the opening weekend, losing two games to Grand Canyon. But since then, they have reeled off five wins in a row, including a nice victory over Arizona State. The Cowboys have been choppy and inconsistent on the mound, giving up seven or more runs in three games, and holding opponents to two runs or less in four outings. For now, the Cowboys’ Sunday starter has been Justin Campbell, who has been hit hard in both starts, sitting with a bloated 9.00 ERA. He’s a freshman, so it will be interesting to see if Coach Holliday gives him one more shot to settle-in, or whether he changes up the back-end of the rotation and goes with someone with a little more experience against the Aggies on Sunday. 

Overall, OSU’s team ERA is 3.97, the highest of any team A&M will face in Frisco. However, the Cowboys are likely the best offensive team the Aggies will face this weekend, sporting a team batting average of .321. Chandler Jozwiak struggled in his last start, so there will be a lot of question marks when we get to Sunday when both pitching staffs will be tired and looking for innings from the lower end of the bullpen. It could be a little known hurler that steps up big-time that could be the difference. 

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Angelina Alcantar, TexAgs

Jozwiak’s performance on Sunday could be pivotal in his ability to stay in the A&M weekend rotation.

Given the stout pitching match-ups on Friday and Saturday, the Aggies will need quality starts from their two big guns, Asa Lacy and Christian Roa. But the bigger storyline will be the performance of veteran lefty Chandler Jozwiak. A big effort from Joz will go a long way to solidifying the weekend rotation. If he struggles, Coach Childress will be forced to look at his options and figure out a new plan of attack with SEC play just two weeks away. That plan will surely involve the current status of Jonathan Childress and when he’ll be ready to take on a more significant role on the weekend. The Aggies are still looking to solidify the bullpen rotation. Chris Weber looked much better on Wednesday, which is great news, and they need Moo Menefee to emerge from the pack as a quality stopper. Bryce Miller needs to continue settling into his role as primary closer.

This weekend will also answer a lot of questions about the offense. The bats have been a pleasant surprise, and while the Aggies have faced solid pitching, they haven’t faced the elite pitching they will see against Illinois and UCLA. If the bats can do some damage and the Aggies can make things happen with aggressiveness on the basepaths, then it really bodes well going forward in 2020. I don’t think fans should get hung up on the record this weekend. The key will be how they compete overall and how the offense reacts to quality front-line P5 pitching.

What's at stake this weekend?

While Army was a good test last weekend, the Frisco Classic marks the first opportunity for this Aggie team to venture away from Olsen Field and play three power-conference opponents, including a Saturday night battle against No. 10 UCLA and their elite pitching staff. So far, there has been an asterisk on all of the bloated offensive statistics through the first ten games. But the rubber meets the road this weekend with A&M facing two elite starting pitchers this weekend. We’ll know shortly if this offense is the real deal, or whether they were simply feasting on average pitching at home. On the mound, the Aggies need to see veteran Chandler Jozwiak have a sharp outing as the Sunday starter after a poor start last weekend against Army, and they need a few more relievers in the bullpen to rise to the occasion and get critical outs. Overall, the team simply needs to put some pieces together and play well.