Series Preview: No. 16 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Arkansas

Who:  University of Arkansas (39-13, 19-8 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – College Station, TX
When: 

• Thursday:  6:00 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
• Friday:  6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
• Saturday:  2:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: Chris Weber  (LHP, 4-0, 2.79) vs. Isaiah Campbell (RHP, 9-1, 2.57)
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 6-3, 1.93) vs. Patrick Wicklander (LHP, 5-1, 4.17)
Saturday: Christian Roa (RHP, 2-2, 3.49) vs. TBA

Scouting Arkansas

There’s a reason why Arkansas is ranked No. 4 nationally and in first place in the SEC west standings. The Razorbacks are a well-rounded squad that has several quality arms and a lineup full of explosive bats with speed on the basepaths. On offense, the Hogs are hitting .311 as a team with a jaw-dropping .507 slugging percentage. The highest slugging percentage on the entire Texas A&M starting lineup is Braden Shewmake’s .462. Yeah, the difference in team offense in this series is that profound across most major statistical caegories. Arkansas has a 60 point advantage in team batting average, a 150 point advantage in slugging percentage, 38 more home runs, 100 more extra base hits, 100 more walks, 125 more runs scored, and 30 more stolen bases.

The offensive match-up is so dramatic and illustrates just how good the Hogs are at the plate and how anemic the Texas A&M bats have been all season. The batting order includes six starters hitting over .300, led by Matt Goodheart at .361. Heston Kjerstad is hitting .335 and leads the team with a whopping .590 slugging percentage and 14 home runs. Dominic Fletcher comes into the weekend batting .332 with a team-leading 55 RBI. Casey Martin is another big stick in the batting order hitting .311 with 12 home runs, 31 extra base hits, and 50 RBI’s. I think you get the message. This is an unrelenting batting order that will challenge the Texas A&M pitching staff, especially a staff missing Asa Lacy.

Luke Franke/USA Today Sports

After leading his team to the CWS championship in 2018, Dave Van Horn has the Hogs rolling again.

As usual though, the Aggies compare more favorably on the mound. However, don’t let Arkansas’ 4.02 ERA fool you compared to Texas A&M’s 3.05. The Razorbacks have a handful of top-line college arms at the top of the starting rotation and a couple of relievers that are as good as any in the SEC. Normally, I’d say Texas A&M’s advantage comes in the depth of the bullpen and the overall staff. Dave Van Horn has struggled to find an effective third weekend starter and to fill his mid-week starter spot. However, with Lacy out of action due to last week’s suspension and the insertion of Chris Weber into the rotation, the Aggies don’t have a lot of extra arms in the bullpen for this weekend. That’s where Lacy’s suspension really hurts, especially against this deadly Arkansas batting order that will grind hard on the A&M starting pitchers all weekend.

The Razorbacks are led by ace Isaiah Campbell, who will be a difficult assignment for the freshman Weber tonight. He’s 9-1 with a sparkling 2.57 ERA. He has a WHIP under 1.00 (0.94) and has only walked 14 batters all season, so he’ll force a struggling A&M lineup to earn their way on-base. The game two starter is projected to be freshman left-hander Patrick Wicklander. At first take, his 4.17 ERA doesn’t look very menacing, but he has the lowest opponent batting average of any starter at .209 and his hits to innings-pitched ratio (40-54) is very good. So why the high ERA? Well, he does have control issues at times. He leads the team in walks allowed giving up 31 free passes. Being patient at the plate appears to be the approach here, which isn’t something A&M hitters have done much of recently.

The Hogs have one of the best closers in the SEC in Matt Cronin. He’s 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 10 saves. His most impressive stat is his .165 opposing batting average. Jacob Kostyshock (2.55 ERA) and Kevin Kopps are two additonal quality arms in the bullpen. So there is talent in the pen, and with an explosive offense supporting their efforts, they typically have more margin for error than the Texas A&M pitching staff.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The biggest storyline will be tonight with freshman Chris Weber thrust into the game one starter role opposite one of the top SEC pitchers in Isaiah Campbell. There’s no doubt that Weber has shown the potential to be one of the better SEC arms in the future, but the reality tonight is that he’ll be a wide-eyed freshman making his game one starting debut on ESPNU in a very big contest for the Aggies. Can he handle the bright lights and the added pressure? Can he deal with the onslaught of explosive Razorback bats up-and-down the lineup? Well, we go to the games to get those answers.

Elisa Schmitt, TexAgs

The Aggies will rely on freshman Chris Weber to show up big in the highest pressure moment of his short career.

Not only is tonight critical to the short term interests of a team still hunting for a regional host spot, but if Weber were to have a quality start and shine in his new role tonight, he could find himself as the No. 3 starter in the postseason. It would also set him up to be part of the 1-2 punch with Asa Lacy next season. So this is an important start on many levels for this team and this program, both in the short term and the long term.

With Weber moved to the starting rotation, another storyline to watch is Coach Childress’ management of the bullpen. What used to be a quartet of tier one arms ready in the bullpen (Weber, Menefee, Miller, Kalich) is now down to three. To compensate, either the starters need to be sharp and go deep into the games or a veteran reliever like Chandler Jozwiak will need to step up and pitch better than his season ERA of 4.91. Looking at his line, his primary downfall has been control. He’s given up far too many free passes this season (22 BB’s in 47 IP). In addition, the usually reliable duo of Bryce Miller and Kasey Kalich have scuffled a little bit in recent weeks. It’s not that they’ve been hammered, but they’ve gotten into some trouble extending their pitch counts and allowing a few runs. Given the circumstances ths weekend, this duo along with Moo Menefee may be needed for multiple outings. That means they need to be efficent and effective early in the weekend so they can be available and fresh on Saturday.

We can talk about the offense as a major storyline. By this time, it’s petty much a given that this team struggles to score runs, so there’s no need to address the topic in depth. A lot of pundits are putting hope into the return of Hunter Coleman, but let’s be realisic here. He’s been out of live action for over a month. It’s a lot to ask him to step in the box in game one and expect to show a mid-season swing. He’ll need some time and at-bats to get his timing back. The question is, do you let him do that this weekend with so much on the line? I’m guessing the answer tonight will be no against a right-hander on the mound, and the answer tomorrow will be yes against the left-hander, Wicklander.

The other point I’ll make about the offense: I know they’ve been encouraged to jump on early count fastballs, but with Wicklander’s control problems and propensity to wlk batters, the best chance to score runs in that match-up will be to show more patience and force the freshman to prove he can throw strikes and locate his pitches. If he’s struggling to find the plate, batters are getting into hitter-friendly counts, drawing walks, and elevating his pitch count. Given his sub-.200 opponent batting average, I think patience is the best move here.

What's at stake this weekend

It’s about as straight forward as you’ll get on the last regular season weekend of the year. A regional host spot is definitely on the line. If the Aggies can win this series against the No. 4 Razorbacks, that’s a bundle of RPI points going into the Aggie resume’. Many pundits feel a pair of wins will clinch a regional host for Texas A&M. The more pessimistic insiders feel the Aggies may need to win one game at Hoover next week, even with a series win. Either way, a series win is the obvious path to playing at Olsen Field in the first round of the postseason. Lose this series and the Aggies are on the outside looking in and would need a deep run in the SEC Tournament to get back in the hosting discussion. Just win baby!

Kendall Rogers’ thoughts on A&M/Arkansas

It's going to be a tough task, getting a series win over the Hogs. When I saw Arkansas in person, Casey Martin wasn't rolling. Now he is. They're hitting the ball well. It's a must win series for A&M if they want to host. They've got an outside shot if they don't win with a good showing in hoover. It'll be interesting to see if Hunter Coleman plays. They might throw him into the mix. They're going to have to score runs to beat Arkansas. They're going to have to score five or six runs a game to win. Tough against Isaiah Campbell.

They can be beat on the mound. Even Matt Cronin. He walks some guys. They're not perfect. They've got some electric arms. They've got some weapons. If you're going to beat him, it's going to be away from Isaiah Campbell. If Chris Weber somehow wins, momentum definitely shifts back to A&M. Try to get Campbell off his roll a little bit. He's a guy who can be beat if he gets rattled.

It's one of those things that's like an avalanche. Once things go bad for Logan Foster, it gets worse. The book has been the same for him over the years. He just really struggles with the breaking ball. There's not a lot of pop up and down that lineup. He's got that pop. He needs to get going. Guys are sitting around waiting on Shewmake or Hoehner to do something, and that's not how offenses work. You can't wait for one or two guys to get going.