What a difference a Sunday win makes in a team’s week-to-week outlook. Anytime you win a series by taking that third game, it really has an impact on the outlook and overall morale heading into the next week. On Saturday, it felt like doom and gloom around here - from those inside the white lines to fans in the stands to certainly supporters on TexAgs - after a 7-0 loss to Auburn where nothing seemed to go right for Texas A&M. I wrote the postgame analysis piece after that game and there weren’t a lot of answers ... especially when it came to the lineup and finding consistent offensive production and an ability to win a game when you allow more than 2-3 runs.
Then Sunday came and the Aggies dug deep, got an incredible team-effort on the mound, played very good on defense and got big hits in key spots in a critical 4-1 victory to win the series over the Tigers. Logan Foster’s three-run opposite-field homer in the fourth proved to be the difference. It was the swing of the year so far for A&M, right there with Cam Blake’s bases-clearing triple and Jonathan Ducoff’s game-winning single late in comeback win over Vandy last month. And it’s right there with that game two Vandy game as the win of the season so far. The difference in being 9-5-1 and a half-game out of first place in the SEC and dropping two to Auburn and sitting at 8-6-1 and a game-and-a-half out first is massive. With so many good teams jumbled together at the top of the league standings and not one team pulling away from the pack, A&M is in as good of shape and boasts as good of a resume as any team in the best league in the country.
If you’re reading this article every week, you’re a die-hard. You’re someone who follows this stuff as closely as I do. And if you are one of those fans, like my good buddy Trent Buck (one heck of a player in his own right back in the day) or great posters like Temple Ag, Capitol Ag or Loyal Ag (there are many more), you see the worts and the glaring game-to-game weaknesses. What we don’t often acknowledge is that pretty much every other team in the country has holes and weaknesses. Almost no team is completely-loaded and free of spots or blemishes. With just 11.7 scholarships available in a given year, the system is inherently flawed and it’s really hard to put together a complete roster that is free from weak spots. You hope you don’t have any big recruiting misses and that your players will develop into what you hoped they would be when you offered them a precious 1/4 or 1/3 or 1/2 of a scholarship. I don’t think it’s a lack of recruiting but the aforementioned worts right now mostly center around highly-recruited offensive players not yet developing into the offensive players that they were recruited around the country to be in college. But despite said issues, A&M continues to win quite a bit more than it loses in the rugged SEC. And when you do that, you start to build a rather eye-catching Tournament resume that should resonate with the NCAA Selection Committee come June as long as the current trend continues.
Texas A&M is currently ranked No. 7 in the D1Baseball.com Poll, which I feel is by far the most accurate and well-thought-out poll in college baseball, formulated week-after-week by the most knowledgeable, hard-working and well-respected college baseball journalists in the country. The RPI currently sits at No. 12. The Aggies have the most “Quadrant 1” (Top 50) wins in college baseball with 14. Only one other team - Mississippi State - has 13 top 50 wins. A&M has played a whopping 23 games against the top 50 and currently sits at 14-8-1. No other team in the country has played more than 20 Q1 games. What’s even crazier - or scarier - is that of A&M’s remaining 18 games, only one of them is against a team outside of the top 55. That’s UTA, which currently sits at No. 63 in the RPI. The Aggies could play well over 35 Top 50 games this season when all is said and done and there is a good chance that no other team in college baseball even gets to 30 games vs. Q1 opponents.
So what’s the point? I’m not trying to say, “Look what Rob Childress and the Aggies have done in the regular season. What a good regular season.” The point of any regular season - whether or not you walk away with a league regular-season or conference tournament title - is to best position yourself for the most advantageous run to Omaha. You want to build the type of resume that allows you to host a Regional, and if you’re good enough, a Super Regional. And despite the Aggies’ fair share of issues and deficiencies as a team, the resume is getting stronger and stronger. I would think A&M is more and more becoming a strong candidate to host a Regional. There is a LONG way to go but A&M has some very impressive wins. And just one loss outside of the top 100. Even with the Tuesday losses, which can typically kill any chance at hosting, it's certainly not optimal but it’s not killing them right now in the committee's eyes when you look at their key metrics.
The key from here is to just keep winning. And despite the ups-and-downs that we’ve seen from the bats and at times the gloves this season, the Aggies are doing a good job of just plugging along and winning games. Do that down the stretch and A&M will put itself in great position to make a real run at the SEC title and lock up a Regional host bid. And could even get into the top 8 seed conversation with a strong stretch run.
Here are some Monday afternoon thoughts, notes, stats and interesting nuggets on the A&M team coming out of the series win over Auburn and heading into the road game at Houston on Tuesday and the trip to South Carolina this weekend...
Hitter of the Week:
OF Logan Foster| 4-for-15 (.267); 1 double; 1 home run; 3 RBI; 3 runs scored
In a week where none of the regular starters increased their batting average more than four points, there wasn’t a lot of great options here.
Elisa Schmitt, TexAgs
Foster launched a three-run bomb on Sunday in the Aggies’ 4-1 win over Auburn.
So I’m going with Foster. The junior got a hit in every game over the weekend, including two hits on Sunday. His three-run blast over the wall in right center was arguably the hit of the year to this point and made all the difference in a 4-1 win to claim the series over the Tigers. Foster is hitting .305 / .372 / .412 and is tied with Braden Shewmake and Mikey Hoehner with eight doubles. He has just two homers so far this season but has hit into almost 10 outs at or just in front of the wall. You can see the power production climb drastically as the weather gets warmer and the wind shifts and begins blowing out from home plate down the stretch. He does have the most strikeouts on the team with 26 but is doing a much better job of not chasing and putting good swings on the ball. He’s also walked 14 times and is showing much more patience at the plate than he displayed in either of his first two seasons.
Pitcher of the Week:
LHP John Doxakis | 8.0 IP; 7 H; 0 R; 2 BB; 6 K
Must be something about facing Auburn. Doxakis got himself tangled in a pitcher’s duel against future first-rounder Tanner Burns on Friday night, and as he did against 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize last season in Hoover, Dox won the battle in convincing fashion. The sophomore lefty scattered seven hits allowed over eight-plus strong innings of work. All seven hits allowed were singles. He didn’t walk his second batter until facing the leadoff man in the ninth inning, on pitch No. 102. Doxakis displayed outstanding command of three pitches and kept the Tigers hitters off-balance with his ability to throw any pitch at any time and in any count. The co-ace and Friday night starter for the Aggies improved to 4-2 and lowered his ERA to 1.76. He has struck out 63 batters as opposed to just seven walks (9/1 BB/K ratio) in 56.1 innings of work.
Who’s Hot?
The A&M Bullpen - You couldn’t have asked for more out of a relief unit than what Rob Childress got from his bullpen arms last week. That group was put into a tight spot on Tuesday when Dustin Saenz had to be removed from the Texas State game with one out in the first inning, trailing 5-0. All they did was throw zeroes for 8.2 frames, allowing no runs on just four hits. The seven-members who entered the game in relief of Saenz walked two and punched out 12. Tired, depleted and needing another day of rest, the pen got a huge shot in the arm on Friday with Doxakis going eight innings. Right-hander Bryce Miller came in for Dox in the ninth and tossed one frame to close it out.
On Saturday, lefty Asa Lacy was not himself and left the game with two outs in the fifth inning, down 3-0. But credit left-hander Chandler Jozwiak for working into the ninth inning and keeping the rest of the key bullpen arms on the bench for another day. His first 3.1 innings of relief were perfect before he ran out of gas in the ninth. That allowed the stable of relievers to be well-rested and ready to roll on Sunday. Right-hander Christian Roa got the start but left with one out in the third with Auburn leading, 1-0. The combination of lefties Chris Weber and Moo Menefee and right-handers Miller and Kasey Kalich answered the call once again, working the final 6.2 innings of scoreless relief. They gave up a combined four runs and struck out 9 without issuing a free pass. All told, the A&M bullpen ran nine different arms out there in four games last week - four lefties and five right-handers - and combined for the following numbers: 20.2 innings; 12 hits; 4 runs (4 earned); 5 walks; 28 strikeouts … all four runs allowed were given up by Jozwiak in the ninth inning on Saturday after working 3.1 perfect innings before he hit the wall in the last frame. You can’t get much hotter than that.
C Mikey Hoehner - The junior went 4-for-14 (.286) last week. That’s fine and all but certainly not “hot” by the numbers.
Elisa Schmitt, TexAgs
Hoehner came through in clutch moments at the plate last weekend.
But when you dive deeper and think back on the week, it felt like he came up in so many tight moments and delivered several absolutely gigantic hits. None bigger than hit two-run double with two strikes against Burns in the fourth inning on Friday night. He went up and found the barrel against an elevated fastball with two strikes and put it into the gap for what proved to be the game-winning hit in game one against Auburn. Hoehner was the only A&M hitter with a multi-hit game on Saturday and he also singled and drove in the game-tying run on Sunday ... one batter prior to Foster’s big three-run blast that put the Aggies on top for good.
Who’s Not?
LHP Dustin Saenz - The sophomore followed up a strong-to-quite-strong start in Austin two Tuesdays ago with a clunker last week vs. Texas State. Saenz allowed a double on the first pitch of the game. Then with one out, he walked the bases loaded on 14 pitches and mixed in a run-scoring balk for good measure. Then with the bases loaded, he gave up a grand slam to a part-time starter who entered the game with zero home runs on the season. The only out Saenz recorded was on a sacrifice bunt in which he allowed the runner to go from first to third. The ERA is now 4.56 after the five-run short stint last week. The desire to get right back on the mound has got to be driving Dustin crazy. The question as I type out this report is whether or not Coach Childress will award him that opportunity this week or not. He could start Seanz at Houston this week to see how he responds. Or he could roll with the more consistent Weber or the overpowering Menefee. You’d like to see Saenz get the ball again sooner than later to wipe that poor taste out of his mouth.
3B Ty Coleman - The freshman is struggling mightily at the plate right now. He went 0-for-11 in the Auburn series after missing the Texas State game with an injured thumb. He’s 4-for-36 (.111) since game two of the Mizzou series. That’s a span of nine games. There’s no doubt that Coleman can really hit. It’s also no secret that A&M is at its best when Ty is in the lineup every day and hitting around the five or six-hole. I can also say that Coleman is doing a good job of not allowing his offense to negatively impact his defense. After struggling for several weeks with the glove, Coleman is really coming on defensively of late. In fact, Ty has not made an error in his last nine game ... the exact time frame that his struggles at the plate began. He’s had 26 chances in that span. But now, it’s time to start swinging the bat because he’s a highly relied-upon piece to the middle third of the lineup and has to start delivering in high-leverage situations with men on base.
2B Bryce Blaum - The sophomore Ole Miss transfer was just 4-for-14 (.214) last week.
Elisa Schmitt, TexAgs
Blaum struggled to find his groove at the plate last week.
He’s hobbling around out there on a bad wheel and you have to respect the heck out of the guy for giving it everything he’s got to be on the field every day and helping his team the best that he can. But let’s face it, there isn’t another leadoff option right now for this team. Blaum is all you’ve got and he has to get back to being that barrel-finding combination of table-setter and run-producer that this lineup so desperately needs. There isn’t any doubt that Blaum’s struggles began when he got hurt in the Missouri series. Since that moment, Bryce is 6-for-28 (.214) with one extra-base hit, one RBI and five runs scored.
1B/DH Will Frizzell - The sophomore looks like Zeus and has an advanced hitting approach. The most perplexing and head-scratching element of the entire season has been lack of offensive production turned in by Frizzell. He went 1-for-8 (.125) last week and is currently hitting a paltry .207 / .297 / .287 with just one dinger and 13 RBI. Only five of his 18 hits have gone for extra-bases. Most of his hits are opposite-field singles. You like that he has an approach to hit the ball the other way when it’s thrown on the outer half of the plate. But you desperately want to see him begin to hit like he’s 6-5, 225 pounds and start crushing balls on the inner part of the plate or left out to the middle into the gap and over the fence to his pull side. The ability is there. The lack of production doesn’t make sense. He’ll get more time to turn it around, but he’s running out of time. If that makes sense.
Other thoughts and notes:
- The biggest news of the week was the re-appearance of right-hander Christian Roa to the pitching equation. Roa had been out since leaving in the first inning of the Sunday game at Kentucky until coming in for an inning last Tuesday in the loss to Texas State. He looked sharp and healthy again, and he got awarded with the start Sunday in game three vs. Auburn. He left after allowing a run in the third and gave up two hits in 2.1 innings of work. This was not due to ineffectiveness and more of a plan to work Roa back into the mix and slowly build him back to full strength. Roa’s return is huge, and if he’s able to take over the Sunday role down the stretch and in post-season play, it allows Childress to keep his lefties in the bullpen for incredible lefty-righty depth and balance. It gives him Kalich and Miller as the primary late-inning right-handers and Weber, Jozwiak and Menefee as key lefties out of the pen. And in a Regional setting, A&M is able to start one of the lefties if it gets into a situation where it must play a fourth or fifth game to get out of the first weekend. I can almost guarantee you that any of those three southpaws will be way more talented than any opposing arm they might face in a fourth - or fifth - game of a Regional.
- Last week, I posed eight rhetorical questions to you that I didn’t try to answer. Just topics that I wrestled with last week when thinking about Aggie Baseball heading into Auburn week. Here are those eight questions verbatim, along with my up-to-date answers to each question:
Should Chandler Morris start hitting consistently against lefties?
Yes. Put him in the two-hole anytime you’re facing a lefty. OR ... see by lineup below vs. LHP with the crazy idea that Shewmake moves up to the two-hole.
Should Ty Condel get another look in center field or do you roll with DeLoach in hopes that he finds his swing again?
I roll with DeLoach right now. At least against right-handers. He hit .333 last week and is squaring up more balls the last two weeks than he has at any point this season.
Will a clean-up hitter ever emerge in ’19?
Yes. He’s not prototypical but Hoehner is your best answer for the four-hole conundrum at this point. At least until Hunter Coleman returns to full strength.
What do you do with Jonathan Ducoff ... could he be your best first base option moving forward until Coleman returns?
I would try it because you aren’t getting nearly enough out of Frizzell.
Should Menefee get another extended look offensively?
I would try to keep giving Moo midweek opportunities to see if he catches fire down the stretch. He’s super talented.
When will Will Frizzell turn his head-turning batting practice sessions into consistent college production?
See above. The question probably should be asked without the “when” because there are only 18 games left in the regular season.
When will Shewmake and Foster get back to dropping bombs and putting balls out of the yard?
It was great to see Foster back up a ball and drive it out of the park to the opposite field. The forthcoming warmer weather and wind shift could play into their hand over the last two months of the season.
Where is the best place to hit Mikey Hoehner?
In a perfect world, you would hit Hoehner either second or sixth. But without Hunter Coleman and with Frizzell’s issues offensively and Foster still a strikeout risk, Hoehner makes the most sense in the four-hole. He’s a tough out that boasts a .420 OBP and is second on the team with a .315 average and 24 RBI. Leave him there. For now.
- I have another question for you: Would you think about moving Shewmake out of the three-hole for the first time in his career and bump him up to the two-hole? I would, and here’s why. Shew is not getting a ton of great pitches to hit anyway but in the three-hole, I believe he feels he has to chase fringe pitches and force the issue vs. taking his walks and doing whatever it takes to put runners on base and create pressure on opposing pitchers and defenses. Don't get me wrong ... it's not like Shew is struggling in the three-hole. He's been very good as a junior. This is more about A&M's lack of production and consistency in-between Blaum and Shew. If he’s in the two-hole, he provides much more direct protection for Blaum and it puts your two most feared hitters back-to-back at the very top of the lineup. The two-hole has been a turnstile so this eliminates what has been a very weak spot in-between Blaum and Shew. If you follow Shewmake with Foster in the three-hole and Hoehner in the four-hole, you ensure that your four best hitters are all batting one after the other. I believe this gives you your best chance to put a crooked number on the board a time or two in each game. Do I think the A&M coaches will entertain the idea of moving Shewmake out of his comfortable third spot in the lineup? No, I don’t. And I don't blame them one bit if they laugh at the idea of changing it up with the dynamic junior from Dallas. But I don’t think it’s the craziest idea in the world and believe it could have a profound impact on the top of the lineup.
- With all of that being said, and playing “Fantasy Baseball” with the idea that Shewmake could move up to the two-hole, here is my best lineup idea vs. lefties and right-handers:
Starting lineup vs. LHP:
1. Blaum - 2B (R)
2. Shewmake - SS (L)
3. Foster - RF (R)
4. Hoehner - C (R)
5. Morris - DH (R)
6. Ducoff - 1B (R)
7. T. Coleman - 3B (R)
8. Wingate - LF (R)
9. DeLoach - CF (L)
Lefty bats off bench:
Blake
Frizzell
Menefee
Walters
Watson
Right-handed bats off bench:
Condel
Starting lineup vs. RHP:
1. Blaum - 2B (R)
2. Shewmake - SS (L)
3. Foster - RF (R)
4. Hoehner - C (R)
5. Menefee - DH (L)
6. T. Coleman - 3B (R)
7. Frizzell - 1B (L)
8. Blake - LF (L)
9. DeLoach - CF (L)
Lefty bats off bench:
Walters
Watson
Right-handed bats off bench:
Ducoff
Morris
Condel
Wingate
It’s exciting to be talking and writing about a baseball team that is still a work in progress in a lot of ways but is still in the middle of a heated battle for the SEC title and hosting position in the NCAA Tournament. We continue to learn more and more as the season rolls along and we’ll learn even more after this week’s four-game road swing to Houston and South Carolina. Should be fun!
Key notes from Will Bolt interview
- We didn’t even play as close to as well as we could have, but we still found away to win the series.
- We feel like our best baseball is in front of us. We’ve played well in spurts to this point. There’s a lot of games left to play, so we’re going to keep at it everyday. We won’t get complacent either because of how competitive this league is. We need to find a way to win without playing our best, like we did this weekend.
- Ty Coleman handled himself really well at third base. If he doesn’t make two or three plays it results in extra bases for Auburn. The wind was a major major factory on Saturday and Sunday. Allonte Wingate made some huge plays in the outfield that are tough to make with the wind. John Doxakis and Braden Shewmake were also standouts. We looked like the team we were in the first 20 games of the season.
- Mikey Hoehner has been huge. He can use the whole field and he always comes up with a big hit. He’s done what we’ve expected of him. He makes pitchers pay with some good hits, and Friday was a huge hit for us. Everyone on the team loves him and admires how he goes about his business. I can’t speak highly enough of Mikey.
- Logan Foster came up big Sunday. He’s shown it in batting practice. He’s had a bit of misfortune with the weather. He’s killed a few balls that in normal conditions would be home runs.
- We know what we’re getting out of Christian Roa. He can mix up speeds well and he’s consistent. We feel like we have the bullpen depth to rotate heavily on Sundays. We knew going with a rested Bryce Miller and Joseph Menefee. We gave Menefee a week to rest his arm up, and he really performed well.
- We’ll come home tomorrow after the game in Houston against the Cougars, but turn right back around to get on a plane Wednesday for South Carolina. These next few weeks will be a grind. We need to dig deep and not look too far ahead because we don’t want to take anything for granted.
