Series Preview: No. 22 Texas A&M vs. Alabama

Click above to watch this week's TexAgs Radio interview with D1Baseball's Kendall Rogers.

Who: University of Alabama (21-13, 5-7 SEC)

Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park — College Station, TX

When: 

• Thursday 8:00 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
• Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
• Saturday 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: John Doxakis (LHP, 5-1, 2.06) vs. Sam Finnerty (RHP, 4-1, 3.02)

Friday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 7-0, 1.49) vs. Jake Walters (RHP, 2-3, 4.23)

Saturday: TBA vs. Garret Rukes (LHP, 1-1, 1.17)

Scouting Alabama

The Tide has had an up-and-down campaign so far in 2018. After rattling off nine straight wins to open the season, Alabama has been treading water at 12-13 with a 5-7 record in the SEC. They hit a seven-game skid in March that found them at the bottom of the SEC at 1-5. However, the Tide has rebounded and won both recent weekend series against No. 8 Kentucky and Missouri. Surprisingly, 12 games into conference play, Alabama has not played a series within its own division in the West. The remaining six SEC series will all come against West division competition, and it starts with a tough road trip to Olsen Field.

Alabama's calling card is pitching. However, that comes with a twist. In his first year as head coach, Brad Bohannon has been trying to punch the right buttons on a starting rotation that has been solid at best. Junior Sam Finnerty has been the workhorse of the Alabama staff as the primary game one starter. His 4-1 record and 3.02 ERA are solid on paper, but he's by no means a dominant game one starter as one comes to expect in the SEC. In fact, it's amazing his 3.02 ERA is as low as it is when you look at his 50 innings pitched and 66 hits allowed, well above the standad threshold of a 1.0 hits-to-IP ratio. However, he does find ways to wriggle out of trouble and has only lost once this season.

It seems like Friday's starter, Jake Walters, has been playing for the Tide ever since Texas A&M arrived in the SEC. He has faced Texas A&M several times, and the veteran A&M hitters will be familiar wih the right-hander. Walters hasn't fooled many hitters in 2018 with a 2-3 record and a 4.23 ERA. Saturday's starter will be freshman lefty Garret Rukes, and his situation is unique to say the least. Rukes redshirted last season after having arm surgery. The staff has been bringing him along very slowly. He has started seven games this season, but he's only thrown 15 innings despite having a paltry 1.17 ERA. His starts have been limited to 2-3 innings so far. In fact, three innings and 50 pitches is about as long as he's been allowed to go. It will be interesting to see if the coach stretches him out a little more, but clearly the plan will be to go to the bullpen early on Saturday regardless of the score.

So far, going to the bullpen has been a good move for the Tide. By the numbers, Alabama has the best and deepest relief pitching in the SEC. Closer Deacon Medders is almost unhittable with a 0.39 ERA and six saves. Batters are hitting just .156 against him. Dylan Duarte has a sparkling 0.53 ERA in 10 appearances in 2018, while Kyle Cameron is sitting at 1.37 in eight season appearances. Despite some of the high numbers in the starting rotation, Alabama's team ERA is 2.82 compared to 2.85 for Texas A&M.

At the plate, the Tide appears fairly average. Only two starters are hitting over .300 with veteran Chandler Avant leading the squad at a .333 average with two home runs and a team-leading 30 RBI. Cobie Vance is second, hitting at a .312 clip, but his offensive production (2 HR, 15 RBI) is pretty average. The only other dangerous bat in the lineup is power hitter Chandler Taylor with 10 home runs, which accounts for 40 percent of the team's round-trippers. However, his .216 batting average and 33 strikeouts indicate a pitcher can navigate safely around Taylor by avoiding any mistakes in location. Overall, Alabama is hitting .271 as a team compared to the Aggies' .285.

TexAgs

A&M starters Mitchell Kilkenny (pictured) and John Doxakis have been dominant this season, posting a combined ERA of less than 2.00.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The storylines for this weekend are pretty clear. The Aggies have an advanage with starting pitching, and Alabama has the advantage in the bullpen. Thus, Texas A&M needs to jump out early and score runs in the first half of the game and basically take control of these games before Alabama can go to its bullpen. For the Aggies to do that, they must get Michael Helman and Braden Shewmake back on track. Helman had one of his worst nights in a maroon uniform against Texas, going hitless and striking out twice. Now, it's only one game and I'd hardly call this a slump, but we do know that Helman stirs the drink for this offense and his productivity is crucial for the team's offensive production.

Even more critical to run output is preseason All-American Braden Shewmake. It's not like he's having a bad season by any stretch. 90 percent of college players would take a stat line of .311 with a team-leading 30 RBI. However, this team revolves around this great player both offensively and defensively. For the Aggies to boast a feared offensive lineup, Schewmake needs to be that .350 hitter that rises to the occasion in big moments. On Tuesday, the sophomore came to the plate with seven runners on base, and none scored. Shewmake walked and hit four ground balls on the night. Yes, the Aggies won the game, but there would not have been the drama and intensity had Shewmake delivered at least one big hit against the Longhorns, something he did repeatedly as a freshman.

Hunter Coleman had a critical two-run single on Tuesday, and he's showing signs of coming out of his early season slump. That could be another huge shot in the arm for this offensive lineup.

On the mound, Coach Childress has made the move to push John Doxakis and Mitchell Kilkenny up a day in the rotation, and he'll play it by ear on who he tabs to start game three. Clearly, A&M needs quality starts from both Doxakis and Kilkenny. Luckily for A&M, the duo has done nothing but pump out quality starts week after week. The two are a combined 12-1 with an ERA well under 2.00.

They will need to be sharp because outside of Nolan Hoffman, the bullpen is in shambles. Veterans Cason Sherrod and Kaylor Chafin just haven't gotten on track in 2018, and some of the younger arms are still trying to figure it out. It will be interesting to see how Childress plays it for Saturday. Does he go back to veteran Stephen Kolek, or does he roll the dice and try freshman lefty Asa Lacy, who looked very impressive on Tuesday in a brief relief stint and who has the livliest arm on the staff?

What's at stake this weekend

It's crunch time for Texas A&M. This is a winnable series. Actually, if the team fires on all cylinders, this is a sweep-able series. A&M saved its season by winning two games at home over LSU. Now the Ags need to get back into the hunt with another home series before hitting the road next week against a salty Tennessee squad. I said in last week's preview that the minimum goal for this six-game SEC homestand was 4-2, and what this team really needed was a 5-1 mark heading into the road series with the Vols. If A&M is able to pull off the sweep, that 3-6 record a week ago will have been pushed to 8-7, and that puts the Aggies back in the regional hosting discussion. A&M has to win SEC games at home, especially against lower-tier teams like Alabama.